ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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If you stuff the PV just east of Hudson bay like on the ensembles, then you end up with a really nice pattern even with the ridge retrograding. That's a really cold look....obviously cutters are still a threat (we had 1 or 2 in Jan '94 even)....but I'll take my chances with that look.
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Still some pretty big differences between EPS and GEFS in the long range....heck, even decent differences in the D8-9 range.
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Quick advisory event that isn't forecasted? I think it was MLK weekend in 2009 we had something like that...it was the day after a larger event. I remember models had almost nothing and then radar starts exploding to the south in a very meridional flow like we have currently, and Ekster walks into the BOX office and says "shit, I need to hoist advisories for 3-5"....." It worked out too, I think i had a quick 4 inches that evening.
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Yeah dryslot punched into CT and RI but it collapsed SE before making it into most of central and eastern MA. Once in a generation storm for the Cape.
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Euro is prob gonna bo boom for the 1/22-23 event. Maybe we can get an 18 year anniversary (can't believe that was 18 years ago, lol)
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Yeah when I was looking at it around 138 hours, I was thinking it might be a decent solution, but then it just kept rolling up into the lakes....it does eventually get forced east, but too late for SNE....big hit for Whites over into Maine
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Euro is pretty close though...it just misses the timing on the northern shortwave in Canada....still a good hit for NNE. That system is a pure timing system....it doesn't have this great antecedent airmass or anything like that...its simply "can the main shortwave time itself with the Canadian shortwave so that the resulting confluence can force it underneath SNE"....that's really all we're trying to do here.
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Euro hasn't exactly been a beacon of trustworthiness when it's an outlier at day 6-7. I'd rather it show a flatter solution, but it doesn't get the benefit these days.
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Seems to be unanimous agreement on the 12z runs (still pending Euro) of next Thursday being more favorable than prior runs. We'll see if that sticks....they are all showing some well-timed confluence up north forcing it south of us, which is something we haven't been able to get this winter at all. But sometimes it just take a little good-timing in a crap pattern to get off the mat.
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We're essentially relying on the upper low expanding to push the precip west on this. It does expand pretty well but a difference of 30-50 miles is like night and day on sensible wx. It did shove precip back into central SNE eventually, but that initial band wasn't west of the canal like the NAM/GGEM/RGEM
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Actually get a little band back into central SNE on Monday
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Nice head fake on Euro....looked more amped at 42 and then slid east anyway
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Euro def looks a touch more amped at 42h.
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Yeah he's thinking of the Jan 1-3, 2010 storm.
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Top analogue right now is the retro storm from Dec 21, 2010 that crushed the Cape. That one was a little different though in that is mostly backed in from the E and ENE I feel like and this one will be a little bit more from the ESE as it comes in....at least for round 1. That round 2 that some guidance tries to get in here would be more from the NE.
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So far, most guidance at least gets a couple inches back to BOS, with some having nearly warning criteria....the only model that doesnt get any precip west of the canal is the GFS. We'll see what the Euro says in about 40 min.
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Ukie didn't come west from 00z....it already had soem light snow over eastern SNE and this run does as well, but we didn't see that bigger type solution that 12z GGEM/NAM/RGEM had.
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Would be nice to finally time some confluence right, which is what it happening on those 12z runs GFS/GGEM...perfect timing on that shortwave in Ontario/Quebec to force it underneath.
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GGEM is all snow for SNE too on 1/19-20 except maybe the Cape and south coast.
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I think it was 1936...may have been 1937 though.
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GFS is coming in a lot flatter again for Jan 19-20. I think at minimum, NNE has a good chance to keep that one frozen, but perhaps even SNE can get in on the game if we keep that trend up.
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IT has that round 2 early Monday which adds another couple inches.
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Yeah that winter was a furnace, but we had that one obscene cold shot. Not easy to get Logan airport on the water to -9F.....I think that was their 3rd coldest reading of all time at the current airport site. Only Feb 1943 and Jan 1957 were colder.
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When did they build the airport outside of town? Does it usually radiate there or not? I remember it being kind of elevated when I flew in there. If it's an airport that typically radiates but there's been a lot of recent development around it (ala IAD-Dulles), then you'd drastically lessen the chances of matching low temps again even if a similar airmass happened.
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Looked a bit west at 60h with the main band. If other guidance aligns with the NAM/Euro/RGEM, then I'd toss the GFS for now. We'll see what the others say soon.
