ORH_wxman

Forgot about 1985....but yeah, -16 is still brutal cold for them. So yeah, I wouldn't count on it happening again any time soon. Prob need a perfect delivery and it's still possible. BOS and ORH had their coldest readings since 1957 back during the cold shot in Feb 2016....it was a brief but intense cold shot on a perfect trajectory for SNE, so that's how it's done.

GFS just grazes the Cape.

I think that temp is still like a top 3 all time low for them. So yea....not happening.

GFS coming in west too....but it's been the furthest east model, so not a surprise. We'll see if it actually gets far enough west for a decent impact this run.

They set their all time record low that day....so unlikely.

Yeah it has the look where there could be some ugly light snow or snizzle almost prior to the main band getting onshore....it's all saturated up through like 850mb, but then dry as a bone at H7 before that band makes it. With 900-925 so cold, I'd imagine that will help try and form ice crystals in the low levels. No shortage of salt nuclei in this setup. But I think the steadier stuff would need upper level support...need that H5 low to really expand northwest as shown on those 12z runs.

Both NAM and Reggie have a 2nd wave of precip for early Monday. It's like a 6-8 hour lull and then another pulse....though Reggie kind of never really shuts it off...more like lightens it up and then tries to pulse it up again for 6 hours. This is where the bust aspect could come in we're fishing for a positive bust....we end up with like 18+ hours of steady snows if it never really shuts off...and if not all of that snow is light snow, then you will see some good amounts. There's plenty of reason though to keep all the caution flags up though. Really tedious setup.

Reggie is not as intense as NAM though....band kind of weakens pretty quickly once it's onshore.

Yeah came west from 06z too.

Here's the actual song being played in Feb '94...it's right at the beginning

NAM has round 2

It's really cold at like 925-950....like -7C, so in any steady precip, it's prob gonna wetbulb quickly down below 32F.

Gets Boston and metro west too.

Wow...scooter crushed on 12z NAM

NAM is a bit west of 06z. That's a pretty intense band trying to kiss the south shore.

Yeah I'm not confident anyone gets a lot (as in more than 3 or 4 inches), but there is a small probability this busts in the positive direction if we sit a CCB/deform over some areas for 12-18 hours.....always tough when there is kind of a mature ULL, but there are areas of good fronto that try to get going, so we'll see.

1/19-20 is looking a bit better for NNE imho....there weren't as many solutions ripping the snow line well into Quebec....many kept NNE mostly snow, so we'll see if that trend continues today.

I think Pope and ginxy got into an argument about it....not sure where they were talking though....NH isn't seeing 60 but SE MA could.

It’s also like a difference of 30 miles that makes a big sensible wx impact. So if this ends up grazing the cape, I don’t think I’d call out the euro for shitting it’s pant. Now if it stays solidly offshore I would.

18z euro ticked back east. Still has some snow for SE MA but nothing like the previous two runs.

He just needs to move to the top of a hill that doesn’t get any CAD/radiational cooling. You get the elevation snowstorms but also aren’t rotting at 46F when it’s 65F a couple hundred feet off the deck. When the cutters come, you can clear that driveway easily.

Little narrow warm nose at 850....not sure I'd buy that, but who knows. Remember when the NAM kept showing that in the lead-up to the March 2013 firehose? It was like -6 or -7 at 925 and like +2 at 850? Then it finally tossed the idea once inside 48h, but the soundings just now reminded me of that.

Reggie is way colder at H85 than the NAM in the 66-72 hr timeframe....thats a decent hit for eastern areas on 18z run.

You just woke up James from his nap in his bed of feathers up above...

18z Reggie looks pretty decently amped through 45 hours.