ORH_wxman

Kind of reminds me of some of those events in early Jan 2005 when we had that hostile torch pattern but we snuck a couple decent snow events in anyway (one of them produced a narrow zone of big icing in CT)….those top end winters all seemed to feature something like that where you steal an event or two in an otherwise hostile pattern. The shit seasons are mostly the opposite…you never score in a bad pattern and you whiff more than you should in a good one.

Yes it’s been nothing but high heights up there since Xmas.

Even in 2015 we had great timing on 2 events…2/2/15 was a would-be cutter where the primary made it to CLE and then hit a brick wall of confluence…so it redeveloped we we got 12-20”….then, less than a week later, we had the Feb 7-9 overrunning event that was like 60F in Philly and DC…we avoided a warm rainer in that one due to some well-timed confluence up north yet again. The south coast actually had some issues in each storm so you can see how it wasn’t that far away from being more tainted for the rest of SNE. It was a great pattern that turned epic because we got “lucky” on small scale nuances in 2 events. When we’re looking at ensembles, we cannot tell how those nuances will play out. We only see the very larger picture on the longwave pattern. I think if you’re nitpicking the ensemble pattern shown, maybe you want to see some lower height anomalies in the 50/50 region. But you only need them there when a storm is trying to cut…otherwise it doesn’t really matter

There’s no such thing as a pattern that doesn’t risk cutters. Maybe something like Feb 2010….lol…but that’s about it. I’ll take that ensemble look anyway though. Poleward ridge in the eastern EPO domain will give us chances. There’s no guarantees in wx.

Quite a bit colder looking on GEFS than previous runs. More like EPS now.

Canadian too.

Snoozefest…hopefully something looks interesting after the 20th by the weekend or early next week.

‘64-65 was a weak La Niña.

All 3 of those were El Niño’s too (2 of them super ninos) where climo is a lot more favorable in the 2nd half of winter. Harder to rally in a La Niña but maybe we do this year.

This has been more like 2015-16…esp recently with the shitty El Niño pattern. It does look like we go more favorable El Niño pattern for later in the month but not before another 10-12 days of horse shit.

We’ll see how poleward that ridge gets out west. If it doesn’t get sufficiently poleward, then that period is likely to be a dud…at least in terms of major snow potential. We’ll prob get something in New England just because out of sheer chance and latitude, but I’ll be watching the ridge amplitude…esp since there doesn’t seem to be any Atlantic blocking during that period, though that could always change.

TWC music from '93-94 winter. Basically its code for "the pattern looks like a cold gradient pattern" where we are on the cold side. Week 3 looks more classic big ridge out west but week 4 starts going toward more typical La Nina look but it's cold at least...not a torch February look. Everything retros a bit in week 5/6 but still seasonable around here so it would be a decent pattern....though we're getitng into utter clown range at that point.

Should've waited for the weeklies to post this @CoastalWx

If only we had an arctic airmass on the cold side of the boundary.

The final week of January into early February probably has to be our Waterloo moment if it's going to happen. Anything after that would likely be too late. If we can rack up 2 or 3 decent storms in that period, then winter is at least salvageable to a certain extent. Can't fully make up for losing half the winter....well, unless we maybe go 2015 or 1956, lol.

It's a pretty nice pattern being depicted....there will be some of us forced to jump back on the bandwagon by the weekend if it keeps showing that.

Too warm.

Looks like a chunk of that is rain, so it prob only gives a few inches at the very end.

I think the new england fraud five is backlash, anafront, windex, severe wx, and IVT edit: lol, the creator beat me to it

Attribution studies are inherently very difficult. We've seen periods of larger storms before too surrounded by periods of lackluster storms but the recent uptick is unique in its magnitude. It's probably some combo of being luckier recently and CC....just hard to weight each one. Is it 80% CC and 20% luck? 50/50? 30/70? It would take an awful lot of data to analyze it....looking at almost every type of larger storm and analyzing the PWATs, analyzing the H5 flow, etc.

I'm getting Bruce Schwoegler backlash PTSD just reading this.

Seems like we'll want that whole trough orientation to be shifted a bit east for getting much snow out of it where we are....maybe far western areas don't need too much movement. It would be fitting this winter to get a legit wave bombing on the front, only for the front to be stalled too far west and we get another round of heavy rain while it snows in NY State.

A large majority of the recent warming is man-made. Some of the warming earlier in the period (like say, late 1800s through 1940s or so) was largely natural. We came out of a very cold period (aka “The Little Ice Age”) that had established itself in the 1700-1900 time period (even going back to about 1300, but the pronounced cold was more centered in the 1700-1900 time period). I don’t think it does the science or advocacy for reducing fossil fuels much good to hyperbolize and exaggerate claims or focus headlines on tail-end of distribution risks…they are important and should be noted, but we don’t want to start reducing credibility by claiming the RCP 8.5 scenarios as remotely likely. That’s how you undermine the entire issue of CC. But this last paragraph is really out of scope even on the wx side…it’s getting more into a political discussion on the best strategy for public awareness and communicating the science.

That even gets part of SNE too. Wonder if we can get that to form a little faster and track over the Cape or something. But that would require a trend actually going right this winter....