ORH_wxman

Still a sizable difference in EPS vs GEFS. EPS looks a lot better both for 12/12 threat and then beyond that. GEFS eventually looks good but it’s taking a solid 3-4 days longer than EPS and even when it does get more favorable, it’s still not quite a good looking at EPS. GEPS (if we actually care about that suite) does look more like EPS than GEFS. So that’s a minor piece of support. The difference between EPS and GEFS def seems to be tropical forcing. GEFS brings it around MJO phases 4/5/6 before curling back into COD and maybe re-emerging near phase 7/8 (when the looks gets favorable again) while EPS basically keeps it in COD.

Western trough is giving everyone PTSD….definitely from last December. Patterns aren’t the same though. If the western trough decides to dig to Baja through Xmas, then maybe but I don’t see that and guidance isn’t showing it either. Lots of emotional hedging going on I think. The pattern should produce plenty of threats imho.

That is way different than saying they have no skill. I would drain all of your money quite quickly if you kept giving me even money odds on something that has a 0.4 correlation. Like if you said “I’ll take the coin flip solution and you take the EPS at day 14-15”….you’d get annihilated pretty fast. Nobody should ever take long range ensembles as very high confidence. But they are useful and have skill.

Yeah like the NAO has a temp correlation of 0.4 here during peak winter months…it loosely means colder but it has a ton of wiggle room so I don’t place a lot of value on it. It gets to like 0.6 once you are down in Dc and VA and those types of areas so it’s a bigger deal. But the main point is that you cannot be “worse than a coin flip” without being an inverse (negative) correlation. Coin flip would be exactly 0.0 correlation since they are completely independent random trials.

There’s enough cold air up here but it doesn’t get precip into New England.

Reminds me a little of Dec 5, 2020…hammered ORH hills and monads with warning level paste but was a sloppy 1-4” for the rest of the region.

That is not statistically worse than a coin flip. A coin flip means something is not correlated at all. We’re talking independent trials. It would be a 0 on that graph. A correlation of 0.4 is not ironclad but it is statistically significant. If you started getting “opposite” results of what you expect, then your correlation is negative.

There is definitely an emerging consensus in longer range guidance that things could go from decent/good to very good as we get closer to the final week before holidays.

They made the dance…but the run is coming to an end.

He opened his kitchen closet this morning and Juan Valdez handed him a fresh batch

Yeah I wouldn’t be sweating at elevation in Vermont. Dec 7-8 may come in mild/rainy but I’d be pretty pumped for the look beyond that. Never any guarantees (remember the monster cutter on 12/12/10?), but someone or many will probably do pretty well this month.

Here’s EPS for 12/12-13. You can see plenty of members hanging out in decent spots.

Yeah for sure. 12/12 still has plenty of ensemble support. I wouldn’t even write off 12/9 yet for something lighter but it obviously needs some things to line up. It’s nice to have things look like they are improving for once as we head closer to the holidays rather than getting worse.

Seems like the tropical forcing becomes a bit more favorable in the PAC after the 14th or so. Esp on GEFS….EPS seems like it keeps tropical forcing really weak which is prob why it’s a bit less hostile in the PAC in that Dec 11-14 time period than GFS suite has been.

Pretty clear that we’re fighting that SE ridge a bit more than previously progged in the Dec 8-12 timeframe but that doesn’t mean we can’t snow in that period…it will just be a little harder. Need to time things pretty well and latitude will help. I still have no qualms about beyond that. It’s hard to get the pattern looking a whole lot better than both EPS and 06z GEFS in the long range.

06z GEFS looked more like EPS than 00z GEFS.

I could see plenty of forum meltdowns happening if we don't get anything by 12/13....but hard to believe we'd keep whiffing if the end of the EPS has any clue at all. We'd keep rolling the dice in a loaded pattern. That's the biggest difference between a good pattern and a bad one or even neutral one when it comes specifically to snow threats. In a bad pattern, you probably have one shot in a 2-3 week span to get something to line up and if you miss it, too bad and you're screwed for a long while. In a good pattern, you have 4 or 5 shots....so if you miss one, you don't have to feel like you just screwed up your one shot to get something. You get to roll the dice several more times.

End of EPS run going into the final week before Xmas....that is a really nice look. Hopefully we can pull off multiple threats.

A lot of members with a low nearby on that threat. Timing differs as well...a lot of members have something 12/12 but some are more like 12/13 or even 12/14.

Nice little nuke on the Euro for Dec 11....hugs a little too close for snow except interior CNE/NNE, but that type of detail is pretty irrelevant this far out. Gonna have to be patient for solutions to stabilize for Dec 9th. Prob at least another 2-3 days. And for any threats beyond that, it will take longer to get consistent solutions.

Yes that is def a possibility....Euro almost shows that to some extent....we end up rotting north of the boundary and there's ocean effect (prob synoptically enhanced) on east flow for like 36-48 hours....prob just showers on coast but maybe cold enough for snow just inland. Marginal saturation above 850 but that type of detail isn't worth looking at yet. That's just a literal train wreck in the Atlantic backing up the flow. Euro looks like it's cooking up a bigger event though for Dec 11.

Nobody should get too invested in that threat....there's a chance there, but it needs a lot of things to go right. If it shows something interesting inside of 120 hours for multiple runs, then maybe it can be taken more seriously.

That's prob gonna be a squash job on the Euro for Dec 9.

Ugh....that's really annoying. Can't wait for the forecasters to say "we're adjusting for lower frozen over the interior of New England because the super ensemble blend has temps largely above freezing by midday".....and completely ignore there's a 1035 or 1040 high N of Caribou and all those models feeding into their ensemble mean that erode the lower level cold are actually just dead wrong and most local forecasters hedge for them being wrong in those types of setups.

GGEM actually tries to retro the Dec 7-8 storm back into us