ORH_wxman

Just catching up on post-Euro....seems like the PAC improvement is now inside of 10 days on all ensemble guidance...so even if we strike out in the next week or so, it looks like we'll have a good situation to work with beyond mid-month.

Ukie has the shortwave but it gets sheared out....it does produce some onshore flow and SN- for like 40 hours though, lol.

You ran that run from your basement tho

It’s not a high probability but we def can’t discount a meaningful system for 12/11-12/12.

Block evolution on the the two mdoels is so different. What a nightmare.

Just saw another frame. That would be quite a bit better than Dec ‘96 system #1. Esp for coast. I think you had about 3-5” of paste from that one? This run would easily give you warning snows.

What a little nuke. That would crush the interior. Coast even flips. Kind of reminds me of the first Dec ‘96 system.

GEM is actually going for the system on 12/11. A day earlier.

Amazing how different GFS and GGEM are at just day 4. GEM is def going to hit us on 12/12 again this run. GFS does have a system for 12/12 but it’s way south. Not really a good upper air shortwave with it like the GEM. But the differences are already huge on these runs by even day 3/4.

I wouldn't sleep on 12/12 yet either. Low probability but hard to trust guidance when there's a lot of stuff that has to happen first and there's a good chance guidance doesn't deal with all of the Dec 9-11 stuff downstream accurately until we are closer.

Regardless of whether the Hudson Bay block forms from retrograding Greenland or building through PAC troughing (it's prob some of both since heights there are already residually very high when the PAC assists), it's very formidable for winter storms here. It's probably one of the best spots we can have a block. It's why the OP Euro gets us in the 12/14-15 storm. But I know why that is a more dangerous evolution....if it forms in SE Ontario or Quebec instead, then it torches us....which is what many of the ensemble members try to do. 1/12/11 had a nice Hudson Bay block form ahead of the PAC troughing

And here I was getting excited to see the block regenerating near Hudson Bay when I lopped the 00z ECMWF.

They look very good through early January.

https://www.oscarmayer.com/contact-us

GEM/Euro/Ukie are also colder behind 12/10 than GFS is. Prob because their NAO block is not sitting on our face like the GFS.

We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen. In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14. BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions.

This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z.

Not a lot of them, but there are a few big snowers on EPS for 12/12....that follow-up wave behind 12/10 threat we were talking about earlier.

Tip might have some additional fodder for his 12/13-14 thread on this run.

Yeah....whats shifting the block from Baffin to Quebec City amongst friends?

LOL at the difference in the blocking between GFS and Euro at day 6

Euro trying to focus on the follow-up wave like the GGEM was doing for 12/12. Looks a bit too flat/weak this run to get us, but may need to follow on subsequent runs if it comes in stronger.

Still has an outside shot, but you need to really thread the needle to make it interesting....if that shortwave rides up over the ridge really far north, it will then maybe be in decent position when it gets shunted southeast. But my hedge at the moment is this is a whiff.

There's been a lot of different versions of poo-pooing so hard to say how to parse them.... 1. One version was obsessing over the timing. Like if it didn't flip by Dec 8th, it was a huge bust. "we're going to lose most of early December!!!" 2. Another version was "it's a horrible pattern for the next 3 weeks". Not sure where that came other than "Feels" from but it's been posted in this thread. 3. The most reasonable pessimists IMHO have been the ones probably along the coast who understand their climo sucks in early December anyway and were worried about arctic cold being available...so that when the model guidance ticked somewhat warmer, it was game over for them even with a strong NAO block. This shouldn't really change anyone's perception in the interior, but for the coast I can see the worry. I think some of the worry has been a little overblown though even along the coast. If you get a high in the right area, even a relatively marginal airmass will prob snow to the coast except maybe right on the beaches.