ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yep. If people want to quibble about the colder look being Dec 8-9th vs Dec 6-7th…ok that’s fine. Not sure why anyone would care about that difference 2 weeks out, but it certainly never looked like a cold pattern locked in by Dec 1-3. In fact, it’s looked quite mild during that period on like 90% of the runs in the last 7+ days.
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When was the good pattern supposed to lock in Dec 1? That’s been in the crap period almost the entire time. There was a very brief couple runs over a week ago that sort of muted the mild pattern in the first few days of Dec but it quickly reverted back to mild. It’s been very consistent on post-Dec 5th.
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Retro storm that crushed the Cape. They had over a foot in some spots there. It was an otherwise frustrating winter on the Cape but they got smoked in that one. It did snow like 2-3” though around BOS. We even had a couple inches back in ORH which gave us a White Christmas.
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That was Jan 2015….but same point nonetheless.
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Hard to say…rarer if you start 40 or 50 years ago as your baseline. There were a bunch of snowy Novembers in the 1980s…ironic considering the winters were mostly shit for snow. But really prior to the 1970s isn’t impressive. 2” or more Novembers in BOS by decade: 2010s: 1 2000s: 2 1990s: 2 1980s: 5 1970s: 3 1960s: 1 1950s: 1 1940s: 2 1930s: 3 1920s: 1 1910s: 1 1900s: 0
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Late Dec 2010 to first half of Jan 2011 vibes. That doesn’t mean weenies should start expecting the same results because it’s not exactly the same and snowfall involves a lot of nuances anyway….but the large scale features are very similar.
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Yeah i think roughly 12/7ish would be our first shot at anything significant. But there’s likely to be many more chances after that with that type of blocking present. I posted the 5 day mean h5 but even on the snapshot of the last panel, that blocking is going to town which would imply having favorable setups well into mid-month
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I started posting on December in the December thread…November almost done and unlikely to see anything of significance the rest of the month
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Model guidance continues to be consistent in showing the more interesting pattern after 12/5 Very good agreement between EPS and GEFS.
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You must’ve had 6-8” in that one? Had 6” on winter hill. I remember driving up to Killington two days later and snow was still plastered to all the trees north of Sterling. All along rt 2 from Leominster through Athol was pasted.
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There’s been a weak signal around 12/7-8ish on ensemble guidance the last couple runs. It would make sense given that temporary PNA ridging that spikes up while at the same time we have that arctic blocking showing a small relaxation after the initial plunge.
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Not often you see 300dm anomalies at d15 on ensembles….on a 5 day mean no less
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Bourbon has made a comeback in the past decade or so. I’m personally a scotch guy but I’ll drink a bourbon if it’s there.
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Our classic SWFE/overrunners tend to just be cutters or inland runners that got rejected from cutting by a strong high to our north due to confluence….models frequently don’t see that type of confluence until inside a week. What makes the NAO blocking helpful is that it makes confluence to our north more likely.
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Models almost always have problems in La Niña with high latitude blocking. I remember ‘10-11 was a really bad winter for model guidance. There’s always uncertainty but the magnitude of it can change a lot depending on the pattern. There’s a lot of blocking up there forecasted to materialize in the next week and that’s going to probably cause a lot of flip flopping….like we’re seeing on the EPS today. That’s a much colder look but it’s not surprising when you have Atlantic blocking of high magnitude.
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I used to do DOT forecasts all the time….and I had the same experience. It varies greatly by town. Some town DOTs want to know about every flake of frozen precip that falls and others are like “meh, if I can’t plow it or it’s not an epic ice storm, I don’t really care”.
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Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern This H5 pattern Produces this temperature anomaly…
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What am I missing? Ensemble runs seem pretty consistent. Too much beer on here last night?
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Ahh ok so you saw Some epic winters (‘10-11 was amazing in HFD). But yeah, since moving back, been pretty ugly there.
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In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS
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Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking.
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When was your first winter there?
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I thought he was describing all of ginxy’s dog logs getting ripped against the fence during a good coastal gale.
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I like this look on 18z GEFS. Cold and active.
