ORH_wxman

GFS is already trending at 108....not sure if this solution will be eye candy yet, but regardless of what the final solution is, you can see the block holding tougher.

Almost every single snow "Event" I've had has been at these temps. It's amazing....even when we have like -5C 925 temps, we cannot buy a good sfc PPT prior to the storm....we get one in the middle of this storm, but that doesn't do us any good on the front end, lol. Only real exception was the 12/11 clipper-esque system where we had temps in the mid/upper 20s. We did drop to like 31F in the middle of the CCB on the 1/23 "happy ending" storm, but obviously a significant part of that one too was at 33-34.

Icon gone wild....but the reason ti did was because of the block. It was more Euro-esque and really held those lower heights to our northeast stout.

Did have a nice 3-4 hour burst here....that would be nice to grab a few. I'm skepitcal though until there's more evidence we get some good rates.

Yeah a lot of these 12z runs so far are pretty weak sauce with the precip rates this evening....I'm envisioning a lot of 1 mile vis light snow that accumulates slowly on the grass with maybe a heavier burst in the final hour before it flips. I was hoping for 3-4" but I haven't really strayed from my personal thoughts of an inch or so.

Antecedent airmass is actually decent out ahead of the storm....it's just a question of the block being good enough to force redevelopment soon enough to hold in that airmass....if not, then we erode it and get a pseudo-cutter, but on the Euro, it redevelops and we're good.

Yeah well the HRRR is usually....

3k is more aggressive with the tuck than 12k. Brings BOS below freezing by midday Thursday

It's further southwest but less east....it's trying to maintain a CF which is also what the Euro was doing until late Thu afternoon....though the NAM maintains the CF into Thu evening.

It really accelerates Thursday morning.

Thing is, we haven't seen this depiction all winter...it's been like 100 miles north of this with the best over Canada border region usually. So even if this is too far south, it's going to bode well for a large part of NNE/CNE.

HRRR gets teens into metrowest now, lol

12z HRRR looks a little more thumpy here this evening. Has 4-5” on the 10 to 1 maps but even half of that would be nice. Im assuming the first couple tenths are basically going to be wasted on a slushy coating because the sfc is pretty warm to start.

I’m not planning on much snow here. But if we get 3 or 4 inches I’ll be pleasantly surprised. The most interesting part of the event here is prob the temp crash during Thursday.

EPS continues to get snowier for us. Man, just have one of these threats go right.

06z euro looks like it ticked slightly colder than 00z. Gonna be close here. I could see half an inch before pellets or 4-5”.

Sneaking some teens into N MA. That’s gonna be interesting to follow.

Yeah almost like HRRR

18z Euro has an almost continuous cold drain once the event starts. ORH is 30F moderate snow to 27F pellets to 23F freezing drizzle/mist in a 12-18 hour period.

It gets really cold after the first pulse of precip too. It has upper teens in ORH county Thursday and sub-freezing down into CT Thursday evening….gonna have to watch for that 2nd round of precip. Even if it’s only a few tenths, if it’s falling as ZR in the 20s, that’ll be nasty.

Sometimes it produces especially weenie solutions when it decides to hang out with Crazy Uncle at happy hour.

I’ve noticed the PV has been extending/elongating just a hair SE on these colder runs lowering the heights in NE. I’m not entirely sure on the reason we are seeing those little wobbles. Might be how it’s interacting with today’s shortwave. I think Tip’s overall larger view has been very correct on this one…that PV is a monster and isn’t going to move very easily so it’s that versus the western trough and the forces are pretty equal at the moment. But since your area in the NH border region down to mine near the pike is right on the line, we’re sweating these 15 mile wobbles whereas nobody in NYC gives a crap and powderfreak doesn’t give a crap either…it’s mostly been the same solutions for them outside the “marginal zone” where we are.

18z euro def tickled a little colder. Has a couple inches into N CT tomorrow night and about 5-6 for the pike.

It’s amazing how many airmasses have lacked low level cold this year even when aloft is decently cold. So many winters we’ll have random events with 528 to 534 thickness and temps in the 20s. But this year, we’ll be like 528 thicknesses with 850 temps of -6 and 925 temps of -3 with sfc temps in the mid 30s with white rain falling. Lol. Cannot buy a surface high in even a half-reasonable position this winter. Tomorrow’s event is one of the first times all year where we have a good sfc high…ironically we lack a decent antecedent airmass ahead of it so we are still struggling anyway….hopefully one of these events beyond tomorrow can do the trick.