ORH_wxman

You can see the AO/NAO helping us out in first week of December here despite a semi-hostile PAC. This is the EPS, but GEFS is similar....maybe even more robust with -NAO than EPS

Early December will have to be salvaged by the NAO/AO I think....PAC going a bit hostile seems to be the trend right now and it was showing up that way too on some longer range stuff before we had a very brief few runs of less hostile PAC. Both EPS and GEFS do show a -AO during early December so it could keep us in the game for something.

Yes Here's yesterday's 12z EPS vs today at same verification time....note the PV lobe is further southwest and more robust on yesterday's run

12z EPS was actually slightly better than 00z for snow outcomes....but we're talking very minor difference. But in order to get back to the bigger threat look, we need to trend the cold press further south again.

Euro's cold turkeys here....but not by a lot. Parakeets and flamingos in the mid-atlantic. Don't think we'd hold that off for the storm a day or two later.

Ukie might be more interesting looking at 144h....looks like more confluence than GGEM. I think we'd still like to see that PV lobe a tick south, but that would prob produce some wintry precip over interior.

Yep, but it shifted N with the PV lobe too...not as pressed as 00z was. I'm guessing Euro will start backing off too....but we'll see. PRetty volatile and unstable look up north. The GFS goes nuclear with blocking after the Tday weekend system goes by.

GFS shifted quite lot with the PV lobe...but it was mostly an eastward shift and not south, so we're still going to have warm turkey this run.

They'll get out tomorrow. LES firehose should shut off tomorrow afternoon.

EPS previously followed the GEFS in showing the cold press for T-day....lets see if that happens again and it follows the GEFS in backing off that cold press.

That ridge-bridge on the EPS helps...GEFS doesn't really have that and puts that piece of PV lobe near Baffin....same place that has the ridge-bridge on EPS

November sins must be confessed before that happens.....

It certainly could be cold and snowy....but we're just saying that the beginning of the month looks like it's going to be milder....it's been in the cards for a while to varying degrees. A few recent runs had the relaxation almost disappearing but it's come back on the last run or two.

N PAC looks like it gets pretty hostile in early December on EPS.

Early in the season. People are anxious to get things rolling 3 weeks ahead of climo. It’s a pretty nice look for late November, but you still need a lot of things to line up. There will likely be more chances into December though with this pattern. Looks pretty active.

Yeah but a lot of them have no cold air in place because that PV lobe never makes it south. There’s some members on the benchmark with a rainstorm.

There’s some good members in there still. But whatever the OP saw at 18z, a decent number of the ensembles saw too. But it might mean nothing…one of the pet peeves I have is the ensembles sometimes follow the OP too much in the medium range. We’ll know a lot more in the next few runs. There’s a reason we see so few big snows in November. You need a lot of things to go right.

Not really. GEFS trended way north with the PV lobe too. Just not as much as the OP.

It’s like an 800 mile shift in the PV lobe. And that was before the storm. Only like 6 days out. I expect shifts at d6 but usually not that big. Lol. We’ll see what ensemble say in a bit.

Difference between the 12z and 18z. Look north of us. Completely different.

GFS never gets the cold airmass in here for Tday. That’s a requirement for any threat to produce winter wx. Looks almost like the euro from 3-4 runs ago when it never pressed the cold south and kept us mild for Tday.

I get that November has winter vibes with the low sun angle and shorter days plus the holidays starting up…if it were up to me, we’d all be buried by Tday. But unfortunately the weather doesn’t care. The numbers don’t lie. When it comes to weather, November is quite anemic as a winter month.

They do have a nice -NAO early/mid December though. Hopefully that verifies and then takes longer to break down than it is forecasting. Also, the weeklies are initialized at 00z, so they are prob not seeing some of this 12z stuff which seems to be a bit better looking out west.

It's too bad the weather doesn't cooperate though.....

Yeah I flew into MTJ as well....it's super easy from there. Took a shuttle van and the dude got us there in just over an hour. It's an extra bonus that you found it cheaper than DEN. MTJ is so convenient, I'd prob pay like a $100 premium to fly into there. One of my fav pics from my 2016 trip is when the skies temporarily cleared right after a snow shower/squall and it was right before I skied down the north face. Great view of the town behind me down below. Not sure there any bad views at that place TBH.