ORH_wxman

Here’s the end of the EPS run…verbatim it’s not terrible due to NAO/AO but you can see how the PAC has gone more hostile and it’s producing a lot of ridging into the central CONUS

Sometimes. Not always. As usual nuances are important. PAC was kind of crappy in Dec 1995 but we had an excellent NAO block up near Baffin/northern Hudson Bay that really did some magic. Heck, even Dec 2010 the PAC was not very good…lowish-amplitude -WPO with very negative PNA but we had a monster NAO block. December 2003 was another one. Pretty ugly N PAC but we lived off the good Atlantic early that month. If the PAC is a true death pig in AK, then usually we are screwed regardless. But if it’s just moderately hostile, you can still get away with it if other variables help out.

PAC looking more and more hostile in early December on both GEFS and EPS. Gonna need the NAO/AO to come through during that period if we want to see any legit threats.

In terms of anything more than nuisance snow, we rarely cash in during first week of month anyway unless the pattern is quite favorable. Interior elevations are the exception.

You can see the AO/NAO helping us out in first week of December here despite a semi-hostile PAC. This is the EPS, but GEFS is similar....maybe even more robust with -NAO than EPS

Early December will have to be salvaged by the NAO/AO I think....PAC going a bit hostile seems to be the trend right now and it was showing up that way too on some longer range stuff before we had a very brief few runs of less hostile PAC. Both EPS and GEFS do show a -AO during early December so it could keep us in the game for something.

Yes Here's yesterday's 12z EPS vs today at same verification time....note the PV lobe is further southwest and more robust on yesterday's run

12z EPS was actually slightly better than 00z for snow outcomes....but we're talking very minor difference. But in order to get back to the bigger threat look, we need to trend the cold press further south again.

Euro's cold turkeys here....but not by a lot. Parakeets and flamingos in the mid-atlantic. Don't think we'd hold that off for the storm a day or two later.

Ukie might be more interesting looking at 144h....looks like more confluence than GGEM. I think we'd still like to see that PV lobe a tick south, but that would prob produce some wintry precip over interior.

Yep, but it shifted N with the PV lobe too...not as pressed as 00z was. I'm guessing Euro will start backing off too....but we'll see. PRetty volatile and unstable look up north. The GFS goes nuclear with blocking after the Tday weekend system goes by.

GFS shifted quite lot with the PV lobe...but it was mostly an eastward shift and not south, so we're still going to have warm turkey this run.

They'll get out tomorrow. LES firehose should shut off tomorrow afternoon.

EPS previously followed the GEFS in showing the cold press for T-day....lets see if that happens again and it follows the GEFS in backing off that cold press.

That ridge-bridge on the EPS helps...GEFS doesn't really have that and puts that piece of PV lobe near Baffin....same place that has the ridge-bridge on EPS

November sins must be confessed before that happens.....

It certainly could be cold and snowy....but we're just saying that the beginning of the month looks like it's going to be milder....it's been in the cards for a while to varying degrees. A few recent runs had the relaxation almost disappearing but it's come back on the last run or two.

N PAC looks like it gets pretty hostile in early December on EPS.

Early in the season. People are anxious to get things rolling 3 weeks ahead of climo. It’s a pretty nice look for late November, but you still need a lot of things to line up. There will likely be more chances into December though with this pattern. Looks pretty active.

Yeah but a lot of them have no cold air in place because that PV lobe never makes it south. There’s some members on the benchmark with a rainstorm.

There’s some good members in there still. But whatever the OP saw at 18z, a decent number of the ensembles saw too. But it might mean nothing…one of the pet peeves I have is the ensembles sometimes follow the OP too much in the medium range. We’ll know a lot more in the next few runs. There’s a reason we see so few big snows in November. You need a lot of things to go right.

Not really. GEFS trended way north with the PV lobe too. Just not as much as the OP.

It’s like an 800 mile shift in the PV lobe. And that was before the storm. Only like 6 days out. I expect shifts at d6 but usually not that big. Lol. We’ll see what ensemble say in a bit.

Difference between the 12z and 18z. Look north of us. Completely different.

GFS never gets the cold airmass in here for Tday. That’s a requirement for any threat to produce winter wx. Looks almost like the euro from 3-4 runs ago when it never pressed the cold south and kept us mild for Tday.