ORH_wxman

Also I think people get freaked out by the H5 maps on the EPS. They have a little more SE ridging than the GEFS but it’s still a cold pattern This H5 pattern Produces this temperature anomaly…

What am I missing? Ensemble runs seem pretty consistent. Too much beer on here last night?

Ahh ok so you saw Some epic winters (‘10-11 was amazing in HFD). But yeah, since moving back, been pretty ugly there.

In New England? No it’s fine…here’s the 850 temp anomalies. At or below normal for everyone here even on the EPS

Pretty good agreement on both ensembles. EPS a little more stout with SE ridge but that’s still a solid pattern for us (not so much further south)…GEFS a bit colder. EPS is getting really strong with that NAO blocking.

When was your first winter there?

I thought he was describing all of ginxy’s dog logs getting ripped against the fence during a good coastal gale.

I like this look on 18z GEFS. Cold and active.

Yeah I’d guess if the market produces incentive for more ski areas, the most likely mountains would be former ski areas that closed. Less work to do and probably less environmental red tape.

Yeah for a day trip I’d want to do something under 3 hours. S VT is in that range.

I’ll bet we still score something by New Years though…keep hope alive!

We should get a couple people to do a small day trip in the winter midweek. You can get some great deals midweek and I can play hookie a lot easier than my wife can (she’s a teacher). I don’t mind skiing solo at all, but it’s def more fun if you have another couple skiers if similar skill.

Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable. I think the key takeaways should be: 1. Models have been very volatile 2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast. 3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up.

The next 7-10 days are going to be pretty ugly for winter enthusiasts....this was the original "relaxation period" that ensembles had back about 10 days ago, but then briefly tried to eliminate (causing dreams of permanent snow pack from Dec 1st-onward) before bringing it back the last few days. But you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, as you said, even on the OP Euro. EPS just coming in now, but they look good too by 12/5.

This is actually true....but it's hard to get approval to just open one these days. However, if lift tickets keep getting more and more expensive, then the economic incentive to open new ski areas will overpower the regulatory red tape....you'll make the money back that you had to spend opening one up. Heck, even the seemingly-doomed Balsams in NH has gotten new life. Les Otten found investors late last year to reinvigorate the project. But even if that one eventually fails, there will be incentives to open other areas....or reopen former ski hills that are now closed.

Pattern talk is usually boring when there's no imminent threat to track....it's where all the melts come from because we're used to pattern talk in mid-winter and we often associate "pattern is changing for the better" talk in mid-winter as us enduring a dead/unfavorable period prior to that, so when we discuss it in November, there's this reflexive reaction that we're "Wasting weeks" when in this case, that is not correct. It's kind of hard to "Waste climo" in November unless you are in the mountains of NNE. Flipping the pattern to more favorable for cold/snow in December should make winter enthusiasts happy versus 10 days earlier. Most people on here should probably root for it to be pushed out to 12/10 or something as very early December is still quite hostile.

Let's face it....for many, it doesn't matter what the ensembles show. The snowfall is the only thing that matters and ensembles won't tell you a lot about that more than a week into the future. They can just tell us if the pattern is more or less favorable for snow than the baseline.

Really good look on ensembles continues after the first few days of December. Pretty darn good agreement with GEFS and EPS.

The staff will set the subforum so that only DIT and the Pope can post for 24h…all confessions will occur and then we can move on into winter.

We had a legit pattern both of those winters.....we got a bit unlucky last January except for those folks right near the coast who saw 24-30" in the blizzard....but the pattern easily could have yielded more events. But even still, I think ORH had like 25-30 inches of snow during these 3 weeks and it could have been another 12-15 more if that ridiculous Jan 17th storm hadn't produced like a 1 in 50 phase that cause it to run up our fannies. Then the previous winter, we had a very good pattern from around MLK until mid-February. We got like 40 inches of snow during this period. I think 2020 might be the year you are thinking of when all the ensembles showed an obscenely good pattern around mid to late January and then it just evaporated. LAst year, we did have some false starts in December, but we did get the good pattern in January....we were just a little snake bit from what-could-have-been due to Jan 17th.

Agreed....I like when it retrogrades from existing Scandi ridging....because it's usually less of a model phantom and more likely to be real. Many of the bigger NAO blocks we have experienced evolved from a retrograding Scandinavian ridge or block.

Pretty intense for D14-15

It's been a while since I've seen the EPS this bullish on NAO blocking that far out in the run....the mean is like 250dm anomalies for D14-15

I share the same wish during the holiday period....but most of our great Decembers and white Xmases happened because of snowy periods in mid to late December and not because of snow on December 2nd or something. His expectations of the T-day through December 5th period are completely unrealistic....it's like a 1 in 10 shot at best of what he wishes for. Maybe even less since he also never wants it to melt if we happen to get a snow event during that period.

They actually look more like the GEFS from last night....a bit less SE ridging.