ORH_wxman

November is typically either "First flakes" or "first measurable" for SNE...the latter being usually over the interior. I think ORH has had something like 60-65% of Novembers seeing measurable snow in the past 30+ years. This year already had 2 inches there, so first measurable is already out of the way. I'd say for December, typically the interior should see an advisory event by 12/10-12/15....and the coast is maybe a week later on average. Often they get them at the same time, but there are events where it doesn't work like that....Dec 5, 2020 is an example...I think ORH had 9.6" of paste while the coast had an inch of glop. The coast got in on the action in the 12/17/20 storm.

The irony in this is that the pattern actually looks pretty good for early December....I wouldn't be shocked if we have a good system pre-Dec 10th. But apparently that isn't good enough....we need to have the once-in-40 year November biggie.

Sometimes a few people get confused and forget that climo in their backyard isn't Rangeley Maine. If we aren't covered with permanent pack by December 1st, we're "Wasting winter".

This is the 5 day mean on each ensembles suite....basically covers the first week of December (minus the first day or two) GEFS looks more favorable than EPS, but EPS is still totally fine. In both cases, the Atlantic blocking is actually retrograding at the end of the run so it probably gets better beyond that.

This is why I love this forum.....every November....rinse and repeat. The funny part is if we had gotten a snow event last week, all of these same people would've said "We're wasting a good pattern in November!!!! It's going to turn to crap by mid December!11!!#2!"

Almost looks more appropriate for November now. A cold rain for many on that type of solution where maybe the interior hills in N ORH county and monadnocks end as brief 34F noodles and places like VT/N NH mountains end as 3” of paste.

-PNA/-NAO is one of my favorite patterns provided the PNA isn’t taking a dip on the beaches of Cabo San Lucas. This version on the ensembles is solid. SE ridge is modest with good confluence to our north. Unfortunately I expect to see plenty of shifts on the ensembles but as long as we keep the Atlantic blocking and avoid full blown AK piggies, I’ll roll the dice.

More importantly is the low height anomalies are in a great spot there near 50/50 region.

Nice look on both GEFS and EPS in early December. That’s quite the change compared to a couple days ago. Model volatility is back….like it’s 2007 again when you had no idea what was going to happen 12 days in advance.

Nice to see the change for better on EPS going into early December. Pretty nice look on the 00z run. Model volatility has been really high though, so hard to trust anything past D7-10 on the ensembles. It definitely looks like we relax back to warmer for at least several days in the 11/25-12/1 period.

EPS looked a bit better today. PAC still not good but less hostile than yesterday and Atlantic blocking more robust this run. So that would keep us in the game for early December.

Worth watching over NNE elevations if that storm can bomb to town somewhere east of New England.

The cold press has been inching back south little by little the last couple cycles. I don’t think it will be enough to help us out in SNE but it could def make a difference in NNE. This is for the Friday threat btw.

We def were spoiled with the Decembers of the 2000s. We paid back the piper in 2010s. I feel like only 2013 and 2017 were really good…2020 was decent but that grinch storm with 100 knot winds from Cuba really put a damper on it. We’re due for a really good December. But being “due” doesn’t make it more likely. I wish it did.

Not a lot of continuity on these ensemble runs. I’m guessing we have some more changes that will show up. At leas the AO/NAO blocking showing up has been kind of consistent. Hopefully that happens. I think your theory of weak forcing right now causing model volatility is prob correct. Nothing dominant to show a coherent signal.

GFS still going with FROPA next Friday. That would be ideal for the ski resorts and specifically the event at Killington next weekend.

I love watching the November freak outs.

That N PAC gets worse each run. That’s starting to get dangerously close to a pig look. Right now it’s far enough west that it’s not a disaster…esp with the ATL blocking, but hopefully that doesn’t become a mainstay on the ensembles going forward.

There are certain times when we can say with high certainty we’re not getting a snowstorm in the next week. The post-Tday event is on life support but not 100% dead yet. Prob in another cycle or two we can call it dead.

The ridge does look like it’s retrograding a bit when going from d13 to d15. But I agree that time range is often corrupted by chaos of 51 ensemble members. Esp when you aren’t seeing strong anomalies. We can actually switch it from raw Z anomalies to standard deviation…and when you do that, things look less significant.

It’s an annual occurrence. Every year a few posters play some violins over a D9 November threat not materializing. I’d have a little more sympathy if they were at least coming from 1500 feet in the monadnocks or something. But not the SNE coastal plain (or a disgruntled cop in Brooklyn, lol)

Here’s the end of the EPS run…verbatim it’s not terrible due to NAO/AO but you can see how the PAC has gone more hostile and it’s producing a lot of ridging into the central CONUS

Sometimes. Not always. As usual nuances are important. PAC was kind of crappy in Dec 1995 but we had an excellent NAO block up near Baffin/northern Hudson Bay that really did some magic. Heck, even Dec 2010 the PAC was not very good…lowish-amplitude -WPO with very negative PNA but we had a monster NAO block. December 2003 was another one. Pretty ugly N PAC but we lived off the good Atlantic early that month. If the PAC is a true death pig in AK, then usually we are screwed regardless. But if it’s just moderately hostile, you can still get away with it if other variables help out.

PAC looking more and more hostile in early December on both GEFS and EPS. Gonna need the NAO/AO to come through during that period if we want to see any legit threats.

In terms of anything more than nuisance snow, we rarely cash in during first week of month anyway unless the pattern is quite favorable. Interior elevations are the exception.