ORH_wxman

March 25th has colder normals than November 17th at ORH....do you consider March 25th winter? March 25th also averages a lot more snow than Nov 17th in addition to being colder.

The only ugly week on the weeklies was Dec 19-26......we know that will verify too.

The table is set by D7 on the EPS....you can see all the key synoptic features....the 50/50 low producing confluence to our north, the shortwave over the central US, a stout western ridge, and solid -NAO to hold the 50/50 in place longer as the shortwave approaches. All very good to see. Obviously we need to get this about 2-3 days closer to take it really seriously, but you'd rather have this general look than not right now

Yeah, EPS totally not biting on burying the energy....a lot of solutions that look good

Look at the western ridge now at d9. Lol. Might produce a totally different storm. Euro buries all the energy in the southwest so that still bears watching. But even without that, it’s a pretty ripe pattern.

Smoked on the north ridge cam (time sensitive) https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/north-ridge-cam

Long drive from Frisco to Telluride. But if you can stay in Telluride for a few days, it's def worth it. If its only for a day or two in Telluride, I'd prob just enjoy Copper and not worry about the 5-6 hour drive.

Depends how high in elevation you are talking.....above like 2500 feet? Probably a whole bunch. They prob get one every few years. But at like 1200-1400 feet? My guess is maybe a few extra beyond the ORH storms, but not a whole lot more. Maybe like 7 or 8 instead of 3? I'm pretty sure the 11/19/86 storm got double digits on east slopes. Also the 2014 T-day Eve storm I think gave them close to a foot. There's probably a few more in there where ORH got like 8" but they got 11" or something like that. Nov 1980 maybe....also Nov '61 and maybe Nov '44.

It's almost impossible to get advisory snows along the coast in SNE during November without a good high placement. I had a thread on this back on eastern that analyzed all the advisory events (or better) for BOS in November and I think every single one had a good high in place except maybe one which was a ULL/cutoff that changed to snow near the end and dropped like 3 inches. Warning snows are even harder. Even for a place like ORH at 1000 feet in the interior, it is not easy to get big dog snows in November. In fact, in 130 years of records, ORH has exactly 3 snow events of double digits in the month of November....Nov 26-27, 1898, Nov 25, 1971, and Nov 10-12, 1987. There's been a fair number of warning events, but most of them are in the 6-8" range. Most recently 8.2" on Nov 15-16, 2018.

I mean from a pure synoptic standpoint, it doesn't get more classic than that look....you have the confluence to our north from the 50/50 low...split flow over central Canada and a very powerful cutoff shortwave in the OH valley with a western ridge to give it a little room to dig....too bad it's 8-9 days out

That shortwave is on 'roids....could be a crazy solution. 8-9 days out though.....

Trough digging too much that run anyway....gonna spawn a low near Houston, lol.

Models are going to swing a ton on a day 8-9 threat....why all the hand-wringing? We used to barely even look beyond D6 on deterministic solutions. GEFS def seemed to have the better idea over the EPS though on the pattern late next week.

GEFS also shows the system.....D8 though so no use in getting too invested

Couple chances for flurries/snow showers elsewhere too....two solid vort maxes move through. First one later tomorrow and then another on Sunday. So those who didn't get first flakes a couple nights ago have a chance this weekend. Could even see some today too, though the latter two days look better.

Yes frequently a 50/50 low can just be a PV lobe that sets up shop there.

Good base builder. Hopefully it stays on the mountain. Just need to avoid a cutter next weekend and it might.

Yeah the town is great. You can walk anywhere in town which makes it super easy. Lots of places to eat and grab beers. I like the old hotel in town. Has a great bar.

Telluride is awesome. Did it in early January 2016 after they got croaked with several feet of snow in late December 2015…we had a couple refresher type snows while I was there (like 2-4” type deals). It was quite cold though when I went. They have some super gnarly terrain if you want it. You’ll prob have much warmer weather being March unless they have some big cutoff over then, then it will be frigid, lol. We stayed down in the actual town which was fun to ski down to at the end of the day…going right down the north face.

Yeah that pattern with the poleward Aleutian ridge and some major weakness in the NAO/AO region is something I like to see heading into December.

EPS is def a bit colder out in clown range than last night's run. Aleutian ridge quite a bit more poleward which in tandem with the -NAO/AO is a pretty good pattern for winter threats. Definitely not a lot of consistency on guidance out in the extended as Scott said. That decaying block in the Baffin region will have to be watched....sometimes they can be stubborn. A similar type block helped out on a few events in Dec 1995 when the PAC was kind of meh.

Euro still not biting on the GFS/GGEM type push of cold prior to Tday.....keeps it north of the Canadian border. It did trend much better with the blocking, but it wasn't enough on this run.

Euro and GFS were pretty darn close inside of 36h...but I'd say the GFS was prob worse at like D3 and 4....it was flatter than a lot of guidance.

Here's GEFS....def agrees with the OP. But you'd like to see more guidance on board before thinking more wintry solution for Tday weekend. FWIW, GGEM did trend quite a bit toward the GFS suite, but not all the way there.