ChasingFlakes

Unless one of those heavy bands set up above the Mason dixon line before the precip switches, I agree with iceman. We'd need 1" + snowfall rates for a short while to accumulate 3-6 inches in the greater Philly region if it's only going to snow for around 6 or 7 hours . North and West higher elevations of our subforum may see 4". I dont see anyone in our subforum getting 5 or more. Judging by last storm, the most we see is around 8 inches along the central PA MD state line.

I was under the impression the FV3 snow total maps are innacurate and overdone at the moment, especially when handling sleet.

You should be ok. There may be some delays, my buddy flew in around 11:30 from Denver to PHL during last storm. I think that was during the first wave where the PHL area got snow and not ice though. Depends on timing but planes have built in de-icing mechanisms and it will be warm enough to keep the runway ice free with salt.

Yeah, I was thinking the ferrier looked low overall, and the 10:1 looked a bit too high. I think somewhere between the two is a good call. With the higher accumulations possible to shift location depending where the strongest banding sets up. I think the winter weather watch for 3-5 is good, even if it underpreforms, the Wednesday evening commute will be bad.

Big difference between the ferrier rime corrected map and the 10:1 3k NAM 12z. Keep that in mind.

Seems like we're looking at a similar setup as last week. Maybe a bit colder, more substantial CAD, with the high rooted deeper in NE. Maybe we'll get a decent thump before all the sleet and ice..

33F rain with IP mixing in. Likely mainly rain now. Drove from West deptford to phoenixville. Was 35F and rain there, the IP started mixing in around 5 miles up 476.

I've been keeping my eye on the models and all that. Kami did you get any flurries in the past hour? I'm not home and radar had some snow over our area, but maybe it's just virga? Edit: saw your post in other thread.

Blue knob looks right in the bullseye.

Seriously it's been spitting out ridiculous totals for SWFEs all season. I dont think it handles sleet well.

I'll just leave this here.

Weather underground wants 6 inches (5 to 8) at my house on Wednesday before a changeover to sleet. I'll believe it when I see it. Gfs 18z has a copycat system right on its heels and had the second wave stronger for our area. That would be friday, around 240 hrs. Edit: sorry I forgot we have a thread for these threats.

64F when I left for work. Still have snow covering grass in shaded areas. Just drove through bel Air, MD and they dont have any snow on any aspects and they recieved twice as much. All the sleet I got is keeping it from melting.

Lots of precip in our area and snow to our south and north in the forecast. Seems like how the whole winter has gone. At least we might see some action in the next few weeks. Meanwhile its 60F+.

The inverse of the long range winter forecasts basically.

Whiteface should be nice, they reported 11 inches and with the wind stuff will fill in since the end of the storm had decent ratios.

Horrible news, stay safe out there. Glad the recent snow helped things out. Is the ice in this picture always brown or is it due to runoff from the rains?

I snowboarded in a t-shirt in the middle of February this year in PA. It was actually hot, it was just after the polar vortex the media hyped up so the snow was still decent. That contrasted nicely to the -20 at magic mountain on MLK day.

18z gfs day 7 and 8 looks like it has some promise if temps trend cooler and the high is more west and stronger. Still would probably be snow to ice to rain.

I have mixed feelings about climate change. On one hand, the earth has naturally gone through numerous cycles of fluctuating levels of CO2 and other atmospheric gases. The environments and climates were obviously impacted, and it led to the extinction and also evolution and birth of new species of animals. I'll pull up a couple great videos from PBS that are definitely worth a watch. Anyways on the other hand, this is the first time in earth's history that there is a species capable of creating long term impacts to its environment and climate. If we end up creating an actual negative impact to our climate, i'm sure the earth would be able to sort itself back out. We just might not be around to see that happen. I know there's a climate change sub forum and hopefully I don't distract the thread, but we dont have too much to talk about. Hopefully I didnt get you started! The first video is definitely worth a watch but they both have interesting info. Also, were holding onto a good bit of sleet in my neighborhood due to our northeast facing hill and woods. Have about an 1-1.5inches in shaded areas and bare grass elsewhere. There's a 1 foot area where it goes from nothing to fully covered grass from the shadow of my house. I'll actually be home during daylight to take a picture tomorrow. Next week day 6 and 7 looks like another swfe with snow to ice to rain.

Wow 4"/hr! No wonder with 50:1 ratios.

No you guys are right, it looks pretty rough at least for the next 10 days. I just hope NNE can keep away from a big rain. They've had a good winter so far, itd be nice for them to end strong. I always feel like March has a good chance of strong snows in our area though, so I won't give up all hope. Maybe with some luck the weekend storm will trend north and we'll pickup a couple inches.

Getting pretty icy. I can slide on the untouched snow on my driveway. 34F I think the upcoming pattern looks decent, there's definitely room for improvement, room for improvement. But no unicorn, yet.

The scattered squalls are making for a pretty sunset. Retained a lot more snow than I expected back home. Definitely due to all that sleet.

Was dead center of that squall, just a dusting on top of fresh snow, the roads were too warm from the sun to accumulate despite pretty nice rates for at least 30 mins. Should drive through a narrow band going south on 95 if it keeps shape that far east in the next 30 mins. Radar looks like rain at my house except for some patches of snow on radar. Not sure if that's making it down as snow or rain.