I would rather take my chances with that, based on how past storms trended north as we got closer in time. It seems easier for north trends to occur rather than south trends, which we've seen many times! It's reassuring that this El Nino is legit this time, rather than the fake-out that was 2018-19. It's been too long since we've seen a proper El Nino.
I was pleasantly surprised at today's ECMWF polar vortex model run, which made the PV even weaker than yesterday's run. Not to mention I was already surprised at that.
The MJO seems to want to enter the COD before going into the warmer phases, and the extended euro ensemble wants to gravitate the MJO back towards the colder phases mid month. We will probably see a warmup the first week of December, but even that seems more muted now compared to a couple days ago. Encouraging signs.