Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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20 minutes or so just on the cusp of a changeover, but never quite getting there. You can see the snowflakes on slo mo only, lol
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I’m in the exciting rain snow mix category. The snowflakes are probably 70% melted when they hit my deck.
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Looks like it might have been rate driven for me. Back to light rain. But I was encouraged for a hot minute, lol.
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Wow just looked outside and I have wet snowflakes mixing in. My place is about 1300'
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Ehhhhh, simplicity takes the fun out of it for me, lol !
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Drove all the way to about 15 minutes north of Crossville and back, rain all the way. Coldest I saw was 35 at around 1600 feet.
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That looks amazing! Congrats!
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Chatt people, you might not want to get your hopes up then.
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Just saw someone mention an ob of thunder near Huntsville on southerwx. It showed up on GOES derived flashes, and if that correlation coefficient above is right, someone in N AL just got thunder snow.
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For you Chattanooga folks, looks like a rain/snow line is heading up Interstate 59: It's not too distinct until the last few frames. No clue if it keeps moving at that pace, but it is a fair clip.
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I'm going to drink some coffee and then go on a little adventure up towards Wartburg. I bet I only have to drive 5 miles on highway 27 to get into the snow. That's just based on y'alls obs this AM. I haven't looked at the radar or temps up here yet.
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Ripping fatties up here in Morgan county. Big fat rain drops that is, lol.
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38 and rain here in Morgan county.
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Agreed. I was just thinking I'm probably too worked up over random runs of the HRRR, but it has sniffed out my temp problems pretty well this winter.
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Here'a a weird HRRR theory, what if it it is just got some parameter that automatically raises the temp when there's daylight: I don't know why else it would randomly decide to change some areas over to rain or mix? Does it think the downsloping is increasing? Sound from over my area at the end of that run: Look how small that boundary layer warmth is.
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That was the very end of that HRRR run too, so if it had been the 0z run, it might have looked better in places in East TN.
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Is that Cantore? His face sums up up that forecast so well.
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@Matthew70 Keep in mind this is only up through tomorrow AM:
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It looks like it is still digging to me. I think it will make a run at the Gulf: Nice t-storms starting to pop there too (thankfully not parallel to the coast to cut off moisture.
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It's wild that they would raise it just a couple of hours before they give the afternoon update, and then lower it. I could see if an event was ongoing and over or under performing, and people needed info, but that's just extra work, lol.
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I'd say Crossville is about as close as you could get and have a hotel. Maybe @Shocker0 or @Wintersnow888 have some ideas?
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Just looking at the run to run trends on the vort, it looks like the NAM is maybe playing catch up: Watch the leading edge of the vorticity run further into the FL panhandle each run
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Man this sucker really seems to be digging to me. At the latitude of LA's northern border and still heading SE. It does look like it is starting to make the turn, but you tell me. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong water vapor level, but it looks SW of where the 18z 3km NAM has it. The above gif starts at 1 PM and is in hourly increments.
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13 inches, 7 miles from me, as snowflake flies.
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HRRR is an amazing run for parts of Cumberland county, but no snow for me, lol. Soundings are still doing that thing where the "guess" snow, but the model shows rain over my area and Roane county.
