Holston_River_Rambler

With regards to the stratosphere stuff here is a trip down memory lane from 2018, when we had a SSW at almost the same time in Feb. (Feb 11) Different ENSO state, but if anyone wanted to look at some maps from that SSW, I found some cruising around our posts and other subforum posts from Feb 2018. MJO from that winter: Some similarities to what we have seen this winter. 2017-18 was a weak-moderate Nina. Probably a west pac warm pool/ PDO thing. H5 heights and height tendencies around the third week of Feb 2018. It's an unusual metric, but finding images from 2018 that are still active on Americanwx ain't easy lol: All of Feb 2018 monthly H5 anomaly composite: Here is what the Euro weeklies started to spit out around Feb 19 for early March: There is some weaker blocking showing up on the Euro extended control for this March but not until mid-late March:

Remember when the GFS was the most SE of models for tonight in to Saturday AM? The elk remembers: But it was almost 70 in places in east TN yesterday, so not too surprising.

Based on what jax posted, it sounds like the pros are expecting that too. If I'm reading that GTH outlook correctly.

If you watch radar scope it stopped almost precisely at sunset.

I tried all the windows I could think of on GOES channel of RAMMB/CIRA page and the only imagery I could find that had something a little different was splint window difference: Apparently that can be used to show moisture under clear skies. https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/23702

Ok, @Carvers Gap @kvskelton @Icy Hot and any other Kingsport adjacent folks, what is going on here: Almost all those pixels make this look like it is coming off of Bays Mt, but a couple of frames show some hints that it might be coming from somewhere near Carter's Valley. We've seen this band during NW flow after storms sometimes, but today is unique. Here is a zoomed in view with counties added: GOES 16 is so clear, I can see the point of Bays Mt there and Kingsport's urban sections around it. At the little swag in western Sullivan county there is a swag, for lack of a better term, in Bays Mt almost exactly where that radar echo is streaming: That is a tiny feature, but Im wondering what is going on up there to cause that radar echo under what is almost a totally clear sky to my eyes.

I woke up at 230 and all rain for me. Wind was howling.

I'm getting dryslotted by Cassiopeia

Radarscope shows snow north of Jackson. Temps look to be between 34 and 32 to about I 40. We need @Itryatgolf70s observations in these pivotal hours.

12z Euro drops some more snow with a front on Feb 17.

Winter. Weather. Advisories. Middle TN.

Saw that one back on August 20th, a full month before the black one reared its head.

I heard something about later in the year. Maybe after September

They are doing away with the high res OP Euro and running the EPS and the control as sort of a lo res OP.

West TN just got NAM’d

No worries @jaxjagman or @Daniel Boone I was trying to ride a line between serious and funny.

I've got the H5 gifs from the January system. It looks to me like the EPO knocked the cold our way and then the NAO modulated the TPV in central Canada in just such a way so that the moisture aimed at the the TN Valley. I don't have the H5 gifs for afterwards though. Alphabet soup indices incoming: I hate to break solidarity with the TRI folks, but I am more of an EPO/ PNA person. This is not an attack on y'all. I love you and want you to live! But y'all can do better with a -NAO that the rest of the TN Valley. If we hadn't had the EPO dislodge the cold and the PNA spike, the TPV that drove the flow beneath it and aimed the moisture at us, might have been pushed by the NAO back to Seattle. (-PDO FTW then?) -NAO 100% helped in that situation, but there was an arm of the TPV acting as a 50/50. I've decided it is not the NAO I want for storms here, it is a semi permanent 50/50 low. You know how the troughs seem to magically try to always drop into the Southwest these days, I want a trough to be like that in the 50/50 spot. You don't have to worry about the NAO then. There will automatically be higher heights over the Davis Straits and Greenland in response to the 50/50. Kind of like Jax's pic above. I guess we have to wait until the AMO flips, or as the Capital Weather Gang alleged a few days ago, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (another AMO) dies and the Atlantic dramatically cools. Honestly I think the January storm was a very rare set up in terms of the Continental synoptics. I don't think 8-10 inches of snow is as rare as some of the news folks who were saying this was our biggest snow since '93., but the TPV being in just the right place at just the right time and to have the NINO STJ there too was unique. It really was like a colder, drier version of my rainy "firehose" pattern, like we saw yesterday in some parts of the state. Lord have mercy, how I would love to see the .qpf we had yesterday and overnight as snow! Flooding gifs. Discussion of the MJO and SSWs. EPO vs. NAO. It must be February in the TN Valley! We need the guidance of the elk more than ever in these godless, commercial times. @Greyhoundhave you taken the abomination down yet? It may wish to be removed. Not blaming you or anything, but creepy metal snowmen can be fickle. Glad to see the 6z GFS showing more cold in the long range. Even got some TN Valley snow under 200 hours! OP Euro still bringing some cold on the 0z run too. This latest SSW looking less impressive to me lately, but I think we will see some atmospheric fallout around mid March. Welp, I'm off to float down the road in my raft. Will post pics if I survive or catch any food to feed the neighborhood.

I'm probably gonna A) be wrong and B ) get a comment about slinging spaghetti on a wall but I think we are about 7 - 10 days away from seeing a meaningful end to this cluster of a pattern we've been in. I was really hoping about this time last week we'd see some better signs by yesterday or today and yeah the Euro above is nice, but I'd like to see all ops at least showing a way out. Doesn't have to be an epic look. Doesn't mean it has to show snow. All I'm asking is for two weeks without a trough slamming into California. Hopefully the Euro is the first hint of changes brewing. That satellite imagery Jeff posted yesterday is not too encouraging, but if we can believe the GEFS RMM today (updated late) the mean splits the difference of 30 members between several big phase 8-1-2, several CODs, and several, I guess, status quos: I especially like the one member that goes back to phase six and stays there for a week. GFS OP likes the COD. I still think it lo amp/ borderline traverses COD 8-1-2-3. If it plays out like it did in January, our best chance for a January redo may be around the Raindancewx date of March 1.

I have to think precip. won't be a problem and bowling ball lows in a few weeks. Even though the Maritime continent shallow ocean heat is still intense, the past few weeks have seen the biggest winter time SOI drops since I've been posting. The end of that Euro run was nice, if you like cold. Looked like shortwaves getting slung its way too.

I think we've been fighting that since I've been typing on this site, lol.

Looks like it also snows/ wintery mixes in CAD regions of NC for something like 36+ hours

Euro is at least looking like it wants to drop a hunk of frigid air south after about 190 hours.