midatlanticweather

OK - The Euro is King for recognition of trends and I think we have to give it a lot of stock.. more than the other models. It has the resolution we need and is pretty good at representing trends. The trend is a bleed south. We cannot discount it, despite the other models. My thinking (maybe it is weenie hope) is that the precip shield is a bit more narrow than it will end up being. If we are going to recover with it getting back to better locations, it needs to start today. Some things I think I am recapping here: This is not as easy of a set up as it appeared at one time (Not that it was ever easy! But there were some sweet cold smoke runs.. they are not there anymore) It is so hard to snow cleanly. There is luck always... sometimes we need more luck than others The trend this year is stringing out these systems as they approach and weakening, and suppression. The pattern kind of supporting some of the obvious - PNA issues, west coast is not great, speed of the system At some point this will stop bleeding south and I do think a small bump north (small) and increase in precip seems possible. I am thinking of how things ended up in NC yesterday I am certain there will be some serious failures and people missing big time in this set up. It is not the uniform look that we want We are in the game, and it is not over. I have on snow weenie glasses and keep thinking we will see an expansion of heavier snow to the north (not super north) into favored spots once this stops figuring out the placement of the CCB. Maybe I am being Mr Obvious.. Hedge low.. and hope we get a lot more!

This is probably not completely true, but is there a correlation to full moons and big storms? Maybe I am wrong, but they seem to happen close to each other. Maybe it is coincidence..

So we need the GFS to start getting its act together so we get the consensus on a big dog!

Looks like the center of a Geode!

EURO better hold! I think GFS will evolve a bit better. Would love all to align soon. This winter is nerve wracking.

32 with freezing drizzle. The steps are the slippery part of the morning! Scraping the car was the hardest part. Everything else seemed alright!

Every time I think we may be done for a while, there is reforming happening to the west. Maybe we get more than I think..

light rain and sleet. 33/29

35/28 - DP and temp down from earlier

36/30 in Purcellville

better than me seeing a huge snow just to our south like 2018 - I thought we may go that way

Trolling the models!

There was that one rare time.. maybe early 2000s, when NAM was the only model showing snow up to 11 inches in the area and we got it! We are due.. right? LOL! OK - no more.. this is becoming banter! Bruce Banter (due to the Gamma ray comment)

Anyone looking at 18z Euro for trends on the strength of the low getting ejected from out west? Or was it bad so we did not see it?

Ouch. This looks familiar

Craptastic

I find that generous! LOL! Probably too generous.. but I would take that.

Hit 17 degrees at about 2:30am.. Some light breezes started and my temp quickly rose and now I am up to 28. Looks like a nice day ahead.

I think that is when I found Eastern.. I remember a coworker calling me after the small stuff the day before that brought in the cold.. I said - "That was not it!" - he thought I busted.

Little fun with the Temps and wind. Small gust caused Temps to rise earlier this morning, then we went back to calm and I am at the lowest temperature of the day.

Like we needed any depressing news

Looks like a few snow showers far SE Loudoun moving into Fairfax.

Gfs