NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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its more like walking on old iced cement -
because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro...........
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As the precip begins to approach the area later tomorrow start looking at radars and surface reports and try and analyse which models are handling the storm most accurately.........
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you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........
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I would wait till later Friday evening..................In other words - now casting
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As of right now Fridays event will be close too a repeat of todays event regarding accumulation - 1 -3 except will be all snow and will fall mainly during daylight hours
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we need a snowstorm around here that can score higher then 1-3 inches - ever consider that ?
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snow has changed to Mix /Freezing Rain here Union/Middlesex county border NJ and looks to be changing Newark/Elizabeth with the precip band moving northeast
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the HRR is overdone and I have my doubts about the coastal increasing coverage around here
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i am a few miles northeast of you and I just looked same here flurries
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who is buying into the idea of a coastal low developing and increasing snowfall coverage around the metro after 7 am tomorrow ? Radar just looks like a disorganized light mess currently
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Radar is not picking everything up it is still coming down steady and lightly in its dry slot you shouldn't be shutting off totally - I am 10 miles west of Staten Island I have 3/4 of an inch only on the ground
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then there is a big hole dry slot on radar west of us lets see if anything is actually falling undetected in that slot or the snow shuts off.....
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right now radar shows no evidence of a coastal low as it is dry south of Atlantic City down the coast through North Carolina
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this was always forecasted to be a light event 1-3 inches in immediate NYC metro but the heavier snow amounts weren't forecasted to be south of us . Radar is showing dryer slots especially in Eastern PA. with a heavier band near York and Harrisburg at 12:15 AM - but that band seems to be drying up moving northeast.... less then an inch still here on Middlesex/Union County border NJ
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what street is that ? the emergency vehicles aren't even there yet
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are you related to snowman19 ? BTW the party's just begun ! The EURO coming back toward the coast is telling !
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this is probably not the final solutions - since various METS warned to wait till the previous storm passes the EURO trending now toward the coast
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12Z GFS has a SECS next weekend - are we going to start a thread ? Actually starting Friday PM
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12Z ICON has an event also
