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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
  2. NEG NAO
    12Z CMC storm is stronger then GFS and HP to the north is still there
  3. NEG NAO
    The problem on the GFS is the HP is not staying in place allowing the storm to move more north then out to sea
  4. NEG NAO
    GFS not that different then ICON
  5. NEG NAO
    yes and as the storm starts pulling away from the coast the rain/snow line moves into central and south jersey also the NE wind that does not come over the warmer water keeps those areas frozen
  6. NEG NAO
    12Z ICON with the classic Raritan River NJ snow/rain line
  7. NEG NAO
    except the models ? last night the GFS and Euro and their ENSEMBLES had 6 inches plus and Henry M. has 12 -18 for parts of Northern NJ all the way into my area
  8. NEG NAO
    Northern Middlesex yes - Middlesex County is large and extends well south into central NJ
  9. NEG NAO
    better hope its at least 4 anything under 2 inches will have some folks here saying this is a continuation of last years pattern
  10. NEG NAO
    yes and in NJ there are natural boundaries such as the Raritan River in Northern Middlesex County and this storm has shown model outputs from various models showing that area as the rain snow line
  11. NEG NAO
    give examples the terrain around the metro varies - for example when I lived in Silverton Toms River a mile from the water - Northern Ocean County back in the 80's there were storms where we got an inch or less and when I drove inland 7 miles there were several inches on the ground I define the coast as only a few miles under 5 from the water down there
  12. NEG NAO
    what is your definition of "the coast" ?
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro
  15. NEG NAO
    we have been going through and will continue to go through various trends the next few days hard to determine which way this will go........plus each 0Z and 12Z run will have updated and more accurate Radiosonde data fed into them.....
  16. NEG NAO
    yes 60 hour rule and then everyone will be looking at the various Km's 3 and 12 and 32
  17. NEG NAO
    the various models are still not in agreement on the track of the storm and the strength and location of the HP to the north - EURO should be interesting in an hour or so
  18. NEG NAO
    I find this hard to believe I will get 16 inches
  19. NEG NAO
    where is the HP and the strength ?
  20. NEG NAO
    The most important players in this setup are the HP in southeast Canada and the 50/50 IMO - the HP has to be at least 1030 and stay anchored and not weaken
  21. NEG NAO
    The HP is weaker on the CMC and slightly north of the GFS 1027 vs. 1032
  22. NEG NAO
  23. NEG NAO
    0Z ICON Northeast
  24. NEG NAO
    0Z ICON
  25. NEG NAO
    huh ? That was a blizzard and was suppressed February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
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