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CheeselandSkies

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  1. CheeselandSkies
    Remarkable how such a violent and historic storm could happen with pretty much no medium or even short-range lead time. Initial Day 1 outlook (as we know) had a marginal risk for the affected area. This after the last two Plains high risks with apocalyptic outlook wording for days fell far short of their ceiling. I know severe local storms are heavily influenced by subtle/mesoscale factors but jeez... * We also just passed the 15th anniversary of the August 18, 2005 Wisconsin tornado outbreak. A state record-setting 27 tornadoes including a long-track F3 that just missed my house occurred on a slight risk day when most of the state was in a "less than 2%" tornado risk as of the 1630Z outlook (most of the outbreak area was upgraded to 5% at 20Z, still not exactly anticipating a regionally historic event).
  2. CheeselandSkies
    ...and that's on top of an actual tropical cyclone (Cristobal) getting into the upper Midwest, although it produced decidedly unmemorable weather IMBY.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Some of those pictures posted by @hlcater resemble major hurricane damage (such as Panama City after Michael).
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Might I remind everyone that @ldub23 gave us possibly the worst-aging post in the history of weather forums on August 19, 2017:
  5. CheeselandSkies
    It seems these high-end derechos are quite difficult to forecast ahead of time. The truly remarkable ones like this often come out of nowhere. Yet when it seems conditions will be very supportive of one, with several days of high outlook probabilities and apocalyptic wording (sometimes culminating in a 60% hatched high risk for wind), the resulting event seldom if ever seems to live up to the potential.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Got windy in Green County, WI but nothing like what was seen in Iowa/parts of N. IL. I rode out the storm west of Monticello (the first tornado warning was headed right for me when it went out, but rotation dissipated before it got to me). These are from near Monroe.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I don't know enough about Darrow/Squitieri to be familiar with their biases. Broyles would have nailed it, but he enhanced/moderates anything that any of the CAMs lights up.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Man, this is the kind of thing where I'm like "where the heck are these from May through July?" then here's one on what started out as a marginal risk day in August.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Don't believe I've been in a PDS SVR watch that mentioned the possibility of 100 MPH gusts before. Although, extrapolating radar the action will miss Madison to the south, unless the northern edge of the MCS expands significantly. Not sure what to make of the convective cells moving NW-SE over northeast Iowa, while an E-W oriented band appears to be filling in and moving NORTH around Waterloo. That's going to crash into the SE moving cluster south of Decorah at some point, not sure what the resulting evolution and motion will be.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Some areas of northern IL/far southern WI have jumped from a Marginal risk at 06Z to a Moderate risk at 1630Z.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Go tell that to the nurses at any of the swamped ICUs in NY, FL, TX or AZ.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe it doesn't help that I only have my two all-black work-provided ones (and a limited supply of surgical masks at home). I've got my first custom one on order.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    I don't know if I'd go that far. I'll stick with "Annoying, but necessary for the time being."
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Interesting there are still those little patches of southwest-central Iowa and northeastern Minnesota in up to D2 (severe drought).
  15. CheeselandSkies
    MKX with this nugget in the HWO... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a small chance for thunderstorms on Friday, and again Saturday night and Sunday. Thunderstorm chances return next Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again next Wednesday. Highly unusual for them to imply possible spotter activation nearly a week out, especially in a nondescript, low-predictability summer ridge pattern like the one we're in. The GFS does show some actual deep-layer shear getting into the region mid-next week for a change. Or, it's possible somebody was just bored.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    So if I (34) were to be in a car accident, or were to catch COVID-19 and be one of the unfortunate few in my age group who needs hospital treatment, they should turn me away? Gee. thanks.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Coastal bomb in summer...why not, 2020?
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Oh man, how did I blank on Dorian?
  19. CheeselandSkies
    That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Among other things, it makes it darn near impossible to retire any name earlier than "F." Even in 1992, Andrew probably wouldn't have been Andrew if names were burned through like they are now.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    The discussion sounded almost like they expect an event similar to that one in August, 1994 that Gary England wrote about in his book (especially the line about "wind-driven hail"). Same general area, too of western KS/OK border region.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Wisconsin's % positive rate has been holding between 2-4% for some time now. I don't know how we've gotten lucky so far, what with the April primary fiasco and then the doors being thrown open by the Supreme Court in mid-May. Our mask-wearing compliance seems to be no better or worse (in other words, not great) than other parts of the region. Thankfully my workplace has now mandated masks, although not everyone fully complies at all times (I see some people where theirs spends half the day down around their chin) at least they are when we have to be in close proximity for extended periods of time.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Wisconsin, the land of cheese and random tornado warnings on marginal risk days.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, after flirting with it in 2006, '09 and (IMO) 2018, I think 1988 has officially been dethroned as the worst season in the history of the practice (I was 2 at the time so I don't remember it personally). Ironically, our chief meteorologist said today that year was also the last time the center of a remnant tropical cyclone tracked into Wisconsin (Hurricane Gilbert, although that was at a more seasonable time of year for such an event-September). I was hoping for some good storms to take my mind off the COVID pandemic, but instead I think the pandemic and more recently the Floyd fallout have taken my mind off the lack of storms.
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