CheeselandSkies

Just dropped LIVE on KAIT. Power flashes and debris!

Couple of rumbles here. About the best I could hope for out of this with the WF stuck south (surprise).@madwx Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Very odd, I remember the two models' solutions being the reverse of that on 4/9/15. Hi-res NAM was gangbusters while HRRR was more subdued with the UH (at least on the last run I looked at before leaving the house ). Of course the models were somewhat different then (3KM NAM was the 4KM NAM, for one).

Indeed, that is why some people are still questioning whether all this social upheaval is necessary/worth it. You have only to look at what has been happening in Italy/some other places in Europe and is starting to happen in New York to see why it's necessary. ...and if the US and the rest of the developed world was caught so much at the mercy of this virus, imagine a pandemic of a similarly communicable disease with a much higher case fatality rate (basically the plot of Contagion).

15Z RAP appears to show the warm front getting into central WI, with southeasterly surface winds across the state not turning easterly until about the latitude of Green Bay. I have to imagine that's overdone. Although, it only has the 60 degree dewpoints nosing just north of the IL/WI state line so this might be one of those cases where there are multiple "warm fronts." I think the trick tomorrow might be finding the sweet spot where the winds are more backed in the 850-700mb layer. Seeing decent surface backing across the board, but they veer to SW pretty quick by 850mb in most soundings and pretty much stay in the same direction at least up to 700mb. At least they don't back again, then veer again (V-B-V).

We had a relatively mild winter, so Lake Michigan temperatures are above normal. Still will undoubtedly have some influence but perhaps not as much as you'd normally expect in an early season setup. The frigid February of 2015 was one of the things in the back of my mind that had me throw in the towel before T time on Rochelle day...

I think I've seen it once before; can't recall when though.

The Day 4-8 left something to be desired, as well RE: next Tuesday in Dixie; usually even with model disagreement the man is gung ho as can be if there's any potential at all.

Haven't seen a lot of hard data on how smoking affects COVID-19 prognosis. I saw one article that said one study showed it significantly increased the risk of complications and death, but two other studies showed no correlation. Simple logic would suggest that it increases risk since your lungs aren't as healthy as they otherwise would be when the infection starts doing its thing. Still, even though data still suggests that given adequate medical care the confirmed-case fatality rate is around 2% (still several orders of magnitude higher than the flu) with the vast majority of those being over 50 and the majority of those being over 70; I'm still hearing enough stories of people in their early 40s or 30s getting fatal or near fatal cases to make me nervous despite my relatively low risk demographics (I'm 34, nonsmoker, 5'11"/188, haven't even had a cold or flu that I remember since November 2016). I'm also concerned for my fiancée (also 34, but has several health conditions) and my parents (my dad just turned 71, my mom will turn 69 next month; so any snark about 'all the olds dying' or COVID-19 being a 'boomer remover' doesn't sit well with me). Also, I bolded "adequate" above because that's the scenario if the hospital isn't overwhelmed and you can get on a ventilator if you need to. AKA not what happened in Italy and, it's becoming apparent, New York. So, all in all, I am social-distancing the **** out of this and encouraging everyone I can to do so as well. I should add that my fiancée and I are quite fortunate that we both work in fields that are considered "essential" to continue to operate during this quasi-lockdown, so our income has so far been unaffected; yet both our employers are taking major steps to reduce the risk to their employees (she has worked from home every day this week except today, my job description requires me to be physically present but we are practicing 6' social distancing and using an obscene amount of hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes/spray several times per shift, and those members of staff who CAN work from home are).

He sounds uncharacteristically bearish on the Day 3 outlook. Doesn't even use the "T" word.

Good reminder of that's what all the social distancing policies, closings, cancellations, stay home orders, etc are for.

Can it please stop being mostly overcast and in the 30s/40s? I don't get how even after a relatively mild winter with our snowpack nuked by the end of the first week of March, proper spring still takes forever to get here. People wanting to get out and "social distance" in 60s-70s and sunshine are gonna have to wait another 3-4 weeks at the least, and that's not gonna be pretty.

Amen to that.

Yep. Glad I didn't get suckered again by Lie-owa today (although TBH, if the COVID outbreak weren't happening, there's a good chance I might have since I have tomorrow off).

Yep, been there, done that several times over the last several years. No thanks.

16Z HRRR is meh for anything east of I-35 in IA. That's at least a five hour drive for me after working 3AM-noon (actually 12:20, had to stay late today as with every day this week due to COVID social distancing and sanitizing precautions slowing down the workflow, among other things). The expansion of the northern 10% and 5% tornado areas eastward makes no sense to me. Trend of the strongest activity being further west (closer to the MO river than the MS, at least until well after dark) plus the societal lockdown/"avoid discretionary travel" guidelines will have me sitting this one out. I keep thinking one of these years we have to get a legit early season outbreak involving the upper Midwest again (3/13/90, 4/8/99, 3/12/06, etc) but it hasn't happened yet.

That's-a spicy meat-a-ball!

Legit couplet on the 0047Z scan, but didn't look as impressive again during the actual warning. Appeared to be line-embedded. A supercell now appears to be trying to get going out ahead of that, will pass west of Breckenridge. Discrete storms look to have been struggling to become sustained all day.

Yep, therein lies the rub with this kind of setup.

My interest in this setup has been piqued a tad over the last couple days, I might do some local spotting if something comes up toward WI. Was thinking about going into Iowa; but between the abrupt societal lockdown/economic disruption, disagreement among the CAMs on where the strongest storms will track, likelihood of having to contend with the MS River and the poor chasing terrain nearby, and Iowa's general track record with tornado threats (doesn't produce when you expect it do, does when you don't) I'm leaning against it at this point.

To put that in weather-speak, that's more than died in the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak; or in any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1950 except for Katrina, Maria and (possibly) Dorian.

My reaction exactly. Did not need it to start looking like winter again with this pandemic misery going on. It'll be gone in tomorrow's 59 with rain; but then it will get even colder than it is now for Friday-Sunday. I know the winter wonderland is some posters' cuppa; but not mine, at least not before Thanksgiving or after about March 10th.

Finally got an official statement/policy from my apartment building's management on this (what they are doing as far as cleaning common areas, etc). I'm intrigued (and concerned) that despite the mass flight cancellations/airport chaos; I haven't heard of any action (increased cleaning, spacing out of passengers in cars, service cutbacks/total shutdowns, etc) from the passenger rail systems. Amtrak, Metra, CTA El...maybe I just missed it but I'm in the TV news business so I don't think so, unless something happened after I left work today. Has New York shut down their subway system? Lots of commuter rail systems in the Northeast, too. Jails and prisons are another thing that popped into my head. Dane County sheriff's department announced restrictions on visitors to the county jails; but what about state and federal prisons? Lots of people crowded close together; access is restricted but if the virus gets in it will wreak havoc.

Does it grind anyone else's gears that the thread for this subject in Off Topic is still titled "Wuhan Coronavirus"? I mean, the whole point of the rather utilitarian official name for the disease was to avoid stigmatizing a particular place and/or people.

What else is new? Except when Illinois gets early/late season snow while we're dry, lol.