CheeselandSkies

It seems these high-end derechos are quite difficult to forecast ahead of time. The truly remarkable ones like this often come out of nowhere. Yet when it seems conditions will be very supportive of one, with several days of high outlook probabilities and apocalyptic wording (sometimes culminating in a 60% hatched high risk for wind), the resulting event seldom if ever seems to live up to the potential.

Got windy in Green County, WI but nothing like what was seen in Iowa/parts of N. IL. I rode out the storm west of Monticello (the first tornado warning was headed right for me when it went out, but rotation dissipated before it got to me). These are from near Monroe.

I don't know enough about Darrow/Squitieri to be familiar with their biases. Broyles would have nailed it, but he enhanced/moderates anything that any of the CAMs lights up.

Man, this is the kind of thing where I'm like "where the heck are these from May through July?" then here's one on what started out as a marginal risk day in August.

Don't believe I've been in a PDS SVR watch that mentioned the possibility of 100 MPH gusts before. Although, extrapolating radar the action will miss Madison to the south, unless the northern edge of the MCS expands significantly. Not sure what to make of the convective cells moving NW-SE over northeast Iowa, while an E-W oriented band appears to be filling in and moving NORTH around Waterloo. That's going to crash into the SE moving cluster south of Decorah at some point, not sure what the resulting evolution and motion will be.

Some areas of northern IL/far southern WI have jumped from a Marginal risk at 06Z to a Moderate risk at 1630Z.

Go tell that to the nurses at any of the swamped ICUs in NY, FL, TX or AZ.

Maybe it doesn't help that I only have my two all-black work-provided ones (and a limited supply of surgical masks at home). I've got my first custom one on order.

I don't know if I'd go that far. I'll stick with "Annoying, but necessary for the time being."

Interesting there are still those little patches of southwest-central Iowa and northeastern Minnesota in up to D2 (severe drought).

MKX with this nugget in the HWO... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a small chance for thunderstorms on Friday, and again Saturday night and Sunday. Thunderstorm chances return next Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again next Wednesday. Highly unusual for them to imply possible spotter activation nearly a week out, especially in a nondescript, low-predictability summer ridge pattern like the one we're in. The GFS does show some actual deep-layer shear getting into the region mid-next week for a change. Or, it's possible somebody was just bored.

So if I (34) were to be in a car accident, or were to catch COVID-19 and be one of the unfortunate few in my age group who needs hospital treatment, they should turn me away? Gee. thanks.

Coastal bomb in summer...why not, 2020?

Oh man, how did I blank on Dorian?

That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa.

Among other things, it makes it darn near impossible to retire any name earlier than "F." Even in 1992, Andrew probably wouldn't have been Andrew if names were burned through like they are now.

The discussion sounded almost like they expect an event similar to that one in August, 1994 that Gary England wrote about in his book (especially the line about "wind-driven hail"). Same general area, too of western KS/OK border region.

Wisconsin's % positive rate has been holding between 2-4% for some time now. I don't know how we've gotten lucky so far, what with the April primary fiasco and then the doors being thrown open by the Supreme Court in mid-May. Our mask-wearing compliance seems to be no better or worse (in other words, not great) than other parts of the region. Thankfully my workplace has now mandated masks, although not everyone fully complies at all times (I see some people where theirs spends half the day down around their chin) at least they are when we have to be in close proximity for extended periods of time.

LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans.

Wisconsin, the land of cheese and random tornado warnings on marginal risk days.

The discussion and probability breakdown seems like something you'd expect to see with a tornado watch issued for a landfalling TC, not in the Midwest in late May.

Man, I thought no May could be duller than 2018 in the Midwest/Plains. At least that had Tescott for those who were able to get out for it. 2006 and 2009 were pretty bad but they seemed like anomalies in that decade.

Yet this virus has shown it's capable of killing seemingly healthy, younger people (including children). Yes the percentages are low, but still far higher than for the flu and is that really a roulette game you wanna play?

Our illustrious legislature and a complicit court have successfully undermined our governor's efforts to keep us safe. After doing relatively well at keeping case counts from exploding the last six weeks, Wisconsin is now the only state with NO official state-level restrictions or guidelines in effect. And I've been going to work all this time, in a workplace where several people have to touch a lot of the same devices. I've been trying to encourage my coworkers to wear masks, but so far only a few have signed on.

There are just too many stories of people under 40 getting severely ill/dying from this. Some with no identifiable preexisting conditions.