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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Storms keep trying south of Jackson/west of I-59 but nothing has really taken root there so far. They had a lot of heating this morning though (relative to AL) and surface winds should back with time. Good chunk of eastern MS remains in the 15% hatched MDT risk.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Yep...
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Almost in the same spot as where the next EF4 produced by the same supercell that spawned Tuscaloosa/Birmingham crossed into GA on 4/27/11, although it took a little different trajectory to get there. It also crossed AL-9 north of Piedmont very near Goshen UMC of Palm Sunday 1994 infamy.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe it's too soon to say they dodged another one despite the trimming of the HIGH. That one north of Tylertown looks like trouble down the road. Of course, I said the same thing about the discrete cells popping in south-central MS last Wednesday and they just kind of died out.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Interesting how this storm started out well south of the 4/27/11 track through Greene/Tuscaloosa/Jefferson Counties but is now basically on top of it from Ohatchee up toward Cave Spring, GA.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Myself included?
  7. CheeselandSkies
    To be fair, the hodos were insane on the forecast soundings across *all* modeling going into this event. If the observed evolution deviates substantially from that, it will be a major fail of NWP. *Note that I am NOT calling for that, yet, but it sure does seem that high-ceiling severe weather threats are on a long streak of never evolving as expected.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Had to be. Should have looked like Tuscaloosa or Cordova from 4/27/11.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    It's still down. It may not be an EF3+ but there's something there with a visible couplet so close to the radar.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Still early in the event, surface low hasn't really started to deepen yet, plus it's getting really close to the BMX NEXRAD site. Ground clutter will become an issue here shortly if it hasn't already.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow classic, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe for your specific area, but for the event as a whole I think there's just too much that's highly favorable to get by without at least a few significant tornadoes tomorrow. My floor for tomorrow is basically a slightly more intense repeat of last Wednesday (add 1 or 2 long-track EF3+), and that's if the warm sector is quite messy.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    @Fred Gossage just made a great point on another forum, which is that on the 18Z HRRR, you can watch the "junk" updrafts die out with time as the supercells mature and are able to dominate the environment. It was not portraying this evolution leading up to last Wednesday.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like some much-needed precip for lower Michigan and Ontario. That deepening bodes ominous signs for the South tomorrow.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Category upgrade driven by 30% hail area, tornado probs upped to 5%.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Was fairly common before 2015 or so. May 4-10, 2003 had four, so did May 22-30, 2004 and three between May 22 and June 5, 2008. In fact, 4-6 per year was the general expectation from the 1990s through the early 2010s (2010 had six including one in October, 2011 had five including back-to-back on April 26-27); except in real dud years like 2000 and 2009. Then dud years started becoming the rule rather than the exception.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Thursday's gonna be another one of those "respect the polygon" days...
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Not really impressed with the rain so far. Was expecting a good downpour at some point today. Haven't really had that (at no point have I been able to hear the rain coming down from inside).
  20. CheeselandSkies
    "WOOO-HOOOO! HEY YOU GUYS! WOOO-HOOOOO!"
  21. CheeselandSkies
    When the NAM has PDS TOR forecast soundings with jaw-dropping hodographs (and 5/4/2003 analogs) up the wazoo and it's one of the more subdued solutions...
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Leaving the store this evening the air had that smell of impending rain.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Is anybody really surprised?
  24. CheeselandSkies
    The LLJ problem is why I was skeptical of the high risk until the overnight models Tuesday into last Wednesday (when it seemed like less of an issue, at least according to the CAMs) and the 45% "let's tie the 4/27/11 probs over the exact same area" always seemed like an odd choice to me.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Good thing is it's the fantasy range GFS, and it kinda flies in the face of the nationwide torchy pattern being predicted by the climate models for April, right?
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