CheeselandSkies

One thing I don't quite understand is that the HRRR soundings for MBY are all capped overnight with "none" in the hazard box, yet it still shows the storms moving through here.

Or coming south from WI...latest HRRR shows hardly anything forming in IA through 05Z tonight.

Latest HRRR has one complex forming in northwest Iowa moving east and one in northern/central Wisconsin moving south, which is depicted still north of me by 05Z tonight.

Dewpoint of 38 on the 5AM ob at Madison. Going to need very rapid moisture advection for any severe weather threat. This time of year at this latitude I like to see something like 70/66 the night before an expected severe weather day, but it's 2021 so I suppose we have to take what we can get.

There is truly a sense of wonderment about it.

I'll take the 6Z 3KM NAM over the 00Z, please. Suggests 2 rounds of storms Thursday evening/night for SW/SC WI as well as parts of IA and northern IL. * Only caveat being that it shows it coming through the Madison area around the time I would be commuting into work. Edit: 12Z shafts Dane Co. again.

12Z GFS gives southern WI a much-needed good soaking Thursday night. NAM gives it to N IL and NW IN.

Since the Dane County mandate expired at the beginning of the month, I've stopped wearing a mask in common areas of my apartment building and other public indoor spaces where I'm just passing through (such as when I'm taking the trash to the chute or walking to/from my car in the basement garage). I'm continuing to wear them in grocery stores and other places with either a lot of people and/or I'm going to be spending an extended period of time. I'm fully vaccinated, but people don't know that by looking at me, so I mainly do it as a courtesy and on the slight, but nonzero chance that transmission is possible from a vaccinated, asymptomatic individual.

(Checks GFS and NAM) Dear God, don't let me get suckered to central Lie-owa on a work night.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=220742776369868

This is news to me. Although, as @Hoosier said in response to @Chicago Storm, "more active" relative to what we've been in isn't saying much.

MKX also issued their first SVR warnings of the year today. No reports in the area, though. Like all the other "rain" events this week, just a brief sprinkle in MBY. Pretty unusual (and depressing) to go through an entire spring without even one good gully-washer of an MCS here...and no prospects of such for the foreseeable future.

At 1630Z SPC expanded the upper Midwest marginal risk so Madison is just barely included in the 5% wind. Event of the year.

More confirmation it's been boring AF. https://www.weather.gov/mkx/wisconsintornadoes Seriously considered cancelling my RadarScope Pro subscription...but of course it renewed today.

Starting to notice patches of grass turning brown here, as well. We got about a month this spring where everything was nice and green.

At least the mask stockpile will be good for something until the next pandemic.

Teensy little shower right over my apartment building. First actual rain I've seen this week, but it won't amount to more than like .001 inch.

Yes, I have. This is a male, smaller than the females yet still by far the largest wasp I've ever seen:

Need some of these. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphecius_speciosus

Yeah this humidity with relatively scant precip is going to be brutal. Somebody please wring the atmosphere out like a g*****n sponge.

Every year I keep thinking that and every year it's more of this crap. Even the much-anticipated stretch in 2019 underproduced. Yes there was Dayton in this sub but most of the days turned out underwhelming compared to their ceiling. I was thinking Northern IL was primed for Rochelle 2.0 that day (and was actually chasing this time), but the surface winds veered.

True, but just as a rough proxy for activity levels.

This chart reaffirms the perception in my memory that 2008 was awesome. Unfortunately I was 22, just out of college, and didn't have the financial resources to chase. I was surprised to see 2006 so high, since that is almost universally reviled as an awful chase season. Your post explains things, guessing that was the outbreaks on 3/12 and 4/2 responsible for most of those?

...but with like 15kt of deep layer flow, right?