CheeselandSkies

TBH it looks like a pretty classic West Texas dryline setup. Not sure why tornado probabilities aren't higher/hatched. High-ish cloud bases due to expected hot temperatures, perhaps?

Check with India, see how that's going for them.

Yes, we finally get the moisture up here. Only problem is, it's May; where's the ****ing 500mb shear? @andyhb posted back in Feb that the long range climate models were showing something like this happening. I wanted to believe that they couldn't possibly be right at that range. Welp.

Hail-driven though, tornado probabilities remain at a seasonably meh 5%.

I remember there being some concern that the Western drought would expand throughout the Plains this spring. Thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case. Upper Midwest has seen significant improvement of late, but we here in southern WI are still running a pretty substantial rainfall deficit for the year, and southern Lower MI is even worse.

At least you're getting storms...

Polar opposite severe weather activity between the bolded and unbolded pairs. I'm pretty sure ENSO is useless as a predictor.

IIRC they don't recommend getting vaccinated so soon after natural infection, since immunity from that will last for a few months at least. Wishing you both a speedy/uncomplicated recovery.

Sounds like the Euro is just as bad, though.

I was only 9 but I remember the summer of '95 being quite stormy in this neck of the woods. I also remember sleeping in the living room a lot because my room upstairs was too stifling. We had an older house with one window A/C unit in the living room downstairs and one in my parents' room upstairs, which they didn't like to use because the wiring up there wasn't upgraded (two two-hole outlets in their room, one in each of the other two bedrooms). Ofc, that was already a much better chase season than this with several events in April and May, then the famous early June TX Panhandle outbreaks.

This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter.

...and there will be one run of one CAM that will show it the night before, and SPC will have a Marginal or at most Slight risk on the initial Day 1 outlook covering the soon-to-be devastated area.

I guess we'll see if the AA precip forecast A.) verifies and B.) translates into increased severe weather activity for the Plains (north of Texas) and Midwest. Much of the upper Midwest is still abnormally dry.

I may be off on this but I feel like we average 1-2 tornado watches a year now here in southern Wisconsin for the last few years. In the 2000s, yes there were down years but there were also years where there'd be like a 3-week period in May and June where it seemed like we were under one every other day.

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

RadarScope showing some lightning strikes near Kankakee/Joliet.

Forecast for Monday is partly sunny and 55.

A rockin' June for me is like a rockin' February (or March) for @beavis1729 and other winter weenies. It's better than nothing (unless you're rooting for a futility record by that point), but it's tough to fully enjoy because you know the season is almost over before it really began when you waste two months of peak climo for your preferred type of weather.

Had me going there for a sec. Might as well just lock this thread for the next month.

That ****-ing NW-SE stream from south-central Canada down into the mid-Atlantic. The thing about the favorable tropical forcing etc I thought was it was supposed to make that go away, at least temporarily. What's it going to take to allow for a trough to dig into the western US and spin out a sequence of shortwaves that can then traverse the central and eastern US unimpeded, with ready access to rich Gulf moisture, as happened in years like 1999, 2004 and 2008?

IMO there hasn't really been a classic regional Plains outbreak since 5/6/2015 (reports graphic attached). There was expected to be a more significant one ten days later (15% hatched TOR from the OK/TX border to I-80 corridor in NE on the initial Day 1 outlook) but most of the warm sector got washed out by overnight junk and the only major player of the day ended up being the Elmer/Tipton, OK-area tornado. Likewise every other would-be high end day since (most notably the high-risk 5/18/17 and 5/20/19) have 11th-hour downtrended to one "needle in a haystack" storm of the day that performs. Not to say that there haven't been classic tornadoes/tornado days in the mid/late 2010s (especially Dodge City 5/24/16 and Chapman the next day, as well as some good western Plains/front range days in CO/WY/MT/western NE) but those have mostly been one or two storm affairs, not outbreaks in the classic sense like a 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 or even 5/29/04.

Is it bad that every spring I feel compelled to bring this out? ...until the next one.

Let's just hit all the places in the South that have been hit before...Yazoo City, Tupelo, now Gallatin.

If it were a May 2003 analog you'd think there would be at least a whiff of a sustained SW flow pattern and outbreak sequence potential on the models.

I see two, both in Georgia and listed under the wind reports.