CheeselandSkies

It has a long ways to go before it gets there. It can happen, though. Anyone remember the six-state supercell from 3/12/06?

Three active tornado warnings now, one each in AR, MO and KY. AR cell has rapidly organized and taken on blatant supercell structure on reflectivity. It'd be my greatest short-term concern for a significant tornado threat. Edit: MO cell not looking too shabby, either...

Warned cell doesn't look exceptionally impressive at the moment. Kind of unusual for them to put out an update MD on a watch seven minutes after issuing the watch... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0553.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1984.html

Pretty quiet in here, although to be fair meat of this threat looks to have shifted slightly north/west of the TN Valley.

18Z HRRR big for southern Chicago metro. @Malacka11 SPC maintains smallish moderate @ 20Z.

In the sense that it's December 10th and you're looking at a more likey threat than snow?

One thing about 2/28/17 is you had daylight tornadic supercells near the I-80 corridor (which is why I regret not chasing it). I don't really see that in the cards with this one. However the nocturnal significant tornadoes slightly further south I could definitely see as a parallel with today.

SPC has been pretty low-key with this, never outlining an area beyond Day 3, and just a 15% slight risk now that it is Day 3. Broyles must be on vacation...that or they're gun-shy after all the 11th hour failures of seemingly slam-dunk outbreaks in recent years (although mostly the ones west and north of Dixie).

Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 8. Wind chill values between -5 and zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between zero and 10. West wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Hurry up, torch...

Strangely our wind is ripping out of the northwest here yet we're still at 50. I'm sorry, but it should never be 50°F at 43°N in December without a major tornado outbreak happening somewhere.

We need precip, I don't really care what form it takes at the moment however that will become more important later. The Midwest has been flirting with if not solidly in drought for most of 2021, and the surest way to set the table for a bad one is a dry winter lacking the usual snowpack melt-off in the spring (see: 2011-12).

Today is the eighth anniversary of the November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak. Numerous long-track and intense tornadoes raked across mostly Illinois and Indiana, with widespread wind damage extending throughout MI, OH, WV and PA. The most significant was the deadly Washington, IL EF4. I remember stepping outside to go to work at 3 AM and knowing something was going to happen because the air felt darn near like a tropical rain forest, in Wisconsin, in late November. A few warnings were issued in southern Wisconsin, although we escaped significant impacts. It was the first live severe weather coverage I was involved in here at the local TV station where I work.

So looking good for the wedding after all. No sign of that 20" snow for Monday on the GFS from a few days ago, either.

Please God no, that's the day I'll be trying to fly out for my honeymoon. Edit: Madison forecast from NWS is sunny and 59 for Monday...shows how much credit they give the GFS at this range.

That's funny that has snow over southern Wisconsin....MBY forecast from NWS has dry and mild (relatively speaking) through next weekend.

Say what? RE: Wanda, of COURSE a fish STS would form right at the end of Oct. and ensure, should a Caribbean beast ever actually form this fall, it will have an auxiliary list name.

51/35 forecast for Saturday. Can't complain for November in Wisconsin, especially considering two years ago we had snow before Halloween.

Ugh. Was hoping it would stay mild through next weekend for my wedding on 11/6. Oh well, we knew when we scheduled that date we couldn't count on good weather.

Peak color has seemed about 2-3 weeks delayed this year, likely a combo of mild early-mid Oct. and antecedent drought.

Eh? Nina is supposed to favor the Atlantic, and in particular the western basin in October (although not always, see 2017).

Gee, thanks. Then I'll stop posting and let this place become a ghost town.

6z GFS pops a PDS TOR sounding over north-central IL at hour 207.

Meh, threat (such as it is) shifted too far away to be of interest for me. On the initial day 2 outlook the 2% covered most of the southern 1/2 of WI.

Possible LEWP-embedded tornado coming up US 56 toward Copeland, Montezuma, Ensign, and possibly Dodge City, KS. This event striking or at least threatening all the towns I hit on my complete bust of a two-day chase trip this past May (I sat in Clinton, OK for a few hours the afternoon of the 27th, then eventually made my way to Watonga).