CheeselandSkies

The HRRR lost its cluster of simulated long-track, warm sector sups with phat red UH streaks for a few runs in the mid-morning. Just speculation on my part but I think it was confused by the moisture mixing out and whether the later mass response/LLJ would be enough to recover from that. The 17Z run is back to suggesting several long-track, cyclic sups capable of families of EF3+ from LA/AR into MS this evening.

Same guy @Chinook posted the video from. I enjoy his videos as he generally forecasts without hyperbole unlike Weed Trimmer or Ryan Hall.

So does 18Z GFS. East-central IL at 21Z 3/31. Still a long ways out but it's nice to see something on the board.

Ik,r?

Only downside is periodically losing everything to a 130kt+ hurricane, and your insurance refuses to pay out because the industry would collapse if they did. Although Tampa seems pretty safe...Ian was always either gonna take the path it did or meander in the northern Gulf and limp into the Big Bend as a sheared barely-hurricane, so because the Tampa area lay between those extremes it was center of the cone for a while.

What else is new? lol

Long range Goofus loves cold so much, I've been tempted to ask why doesn't it marry it?

In 2021 April was relatively mild in southern Wisconsin, with a legit torch early in the month, but it was also quiet and dry like 2012-lite.

Been watching, although with the GFS bouncing around so much it's hard to get too excited. Do appreciate your thoughts, Andy.

SPC has put in an area for next Thursday, but it's for the Southern Plains.

Timing looks off for our region on the 06Z GFS. There's some instability but the lead surface low comes through too early, veering the winds, while the main one is still hanging back in the Rockies at 21Z Thursday. Lots of bouncing around to go...something to watch, at least.

Seems like March goes hand in hand with major DFW hailstorms like it does with college hoops.

Tornado probabilities back down to 5% at the 20Z outlook. Frontal undercutting expected to remain a hindrance. However the cell near Mineral Wells, TX is discrete, appears to be deviating a little to the right of other storms and is on a track to threaten the DFW metro, with significant large hail at the very least. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0293.html

Man, the high risk went almost to the IL/WI border. Shoulda chased on 3/5/22, but I thought the surface temperature/moisture were just a tad too marginal to produce substantial tornadoes, let alone a 70-mile-track EF4. Had a decent chase on 3/15/16, caught a glimpse of the Trivoli-Hanna City, IL EF2 but my chase partner and I made a poor navigational decision and lost sight of it in the darkness after that. After 3/12/06, 3/2/12 is the only really huge March outbreak outside of Dixie Alley that I remember.

That's interesting, I associate La Nina with flooding and , particularly late spring of 2008. The last 10 days of May through the first two weeks of June were practically non-stop thunderstorms with multiple tornado outbreaks and major river flooding for much of the Midwest.

As of this morning's 12Z runs, NAM is still a good bit further west with the dryline at 0Z Friday compared to everything else, but I think it's closer than it was.

Yep, definitely watching the upcoming setup with interest. Was hoping we could pull off a Winterset (or even 3/12/06, 3/15/16)-type setup but these troughs are digging into Mexico and spinning up surface lows way too far south, lol.

They've been very cautious with the high risk in recent years, and rightfully so, as the models and the atmosphere haven't really presented a "slam-dunk" high-end severe setup, and the one time they thought it was (5/20/19) they ended up with huge egg on their face due to a subtle inhibiting factor that none of the models picked up on. 3/25/21 was a pretty good use of the high risk (multiple long-track EF3s, although the lone EF4 came after the high risk had been removed from the updated outlook), 3/17/21 it turned out to be a little overblown IMO. Of course 4/27/11 kind of gave a lot of people the wrong idea of what a high risk day should be like. There are plenty of more "classic" verified examples but it's been a while since we had one outside of 3/25/21. 11/10/02, 5/4/03, 5/29/04, 2/5/08, 4/24/10, 5/10/10, 5/24/11, 4/14/12, 4/28/14...

Looks like cold anomalies mostly stay out west where they belong. Let's keep it that way through April.

@madwx If we get a foot out of this, I'll eat a hat.

It's moving west (as per the NAM, at least). Originally looked exclusively like another lower MS Valley-Dixie event.

Far more interested in following the side of this down south.

Tornado warning in central IL, already reported.

As I just said in the other thread...this is a powerhouse system, shame it's too darn progressive for a quality early-season event in our sub like 2/28/17 or 3/15/16.

Would be another great setup for some early-season in western/central IL if only the front weren't coming through at 12Z per the 06Z GFS. Still might be some if the air aloft is cold enough. Seems to be a trend though in recent years of "wasting" these type of systems mid-March and earlier, and then April-June is dead quiet.