If we don’t get positive trends on the 12z runs it’s time to root for it to just go away. Otherwise we’re looking at it digging and cutting off and south of us and northeast of us will get snow and we’ll be left with the consolation prize of a cold and windy day.
I really hope the schools don’t close for more than a day over this. Two at the most. Hopefully they don’t inconvenience everyone if it’s just too cold in the mornings this week for school.
2/10 was definitely more than 20 at DCA and indeed they had an initial observation closer to what Dulles got. They then revised that observation but also acknowledged that they lost the snow board during the storm. Essentially they guessed.
This map doesn’t really tell the story that dc is on the wrong side of the thermal boundary on the hrrr for most of the event and gets saved by a nice backend band as the coastal pulls away. That’s too hard to predict.