Negnao
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Everything posted by Negnao
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We’re doing well in moco so far. Everything is white and it’s coming down at a good clip in Potomac. Rooting for the DC crew. Seems the precip skipped right over them.
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1.21 mean qpf at dca on the sref. LOL edit-the outliers are the few members that are low. Huge cluster around and inch
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The NY NWS seems to think the euro and sref is too far north based on radar: So far observations and radar data show that the ECMWF and SREF mean are to far N with their measurable precipitation over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. As a result, have lowered pops
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It’s still a sizable shift and can’t be a bad thing. Just reinforcing good trends. .8 mean at dca and even gets .16 up to JFK.
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Last I looked they had 4 inches as the expected snowfall for the national mall so this is in line.
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DT’s first guess was mocked but it looks like today’s runs give it more credibility. He nailed the December storm too.
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Looks like the 6z run of nam this morning.
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Rgem at hour 54 looks good too.
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You’re 100% right that in a bad winter and after the pac puke pattern that a 1-3 or 2-4 deal will be refreshing given we also have better prospects going forward. That said, I think it’s reasonable to have some level of disappointment with the runs today. The gefs was great for the December storm and some of us in here were hopeful it could be as reliable for this storm. Moreover, the 6z was really bullish. That kind of change in 6 hours is not fun.
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18z fv3 showed how too amped doesn’t work. 850s hit the mason Dixon and dc went over to rain.
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Quite sure. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190108 12 UTC¶m=snodpth_chng&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1
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Fv3 has a couple inches in the ground area wide through hour 113
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I don’t think most would take a dusting. Of course accumulating snow and even a warning level event is still possible.
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6z gfs isn’t that different than the euro. It still works out for you guys in the southeastern sub forum but doesn’t look great for the mid Atlantic right now.
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DC flips to a mix or rain then back to snow. Classic megalopolis storm on that fv3 run. Much improved from 18z.
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Washington Dulles and Philadelphia have just about the same annual snowfall. 22 and 22.4 respectively. Baltimore also over 20.
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We really need that Hudson Bay shortwave to deepen and lower the confluence ne of us. That seems to be the feature to focus on
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Sref is 40 percent chance at dca as well.
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https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0
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It’s never polite to say someone is getting dca’d. Worst insult in the weather business.