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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Better trough orientation than 12z but considering that 12z was uber OTS that ain't gonna cut it
  2. Cobalt
    Some of this seems to be timing also? RGEM looks to be a few hours slower with the entire sequence of events than it was for 18z.
  3. Cobalt
    Weren't you just talking to a robot asking it to share secrets about the Weathernext's 18z run?
  4. Cobalt
    Why are we going through the individual members of an AI ensemble
  5. Cobalt
    h500 at hr 72 is a stone's throw away from the GFS solution.
  6. Cobalt
    There is effectively no way for Gemini to not only have direct and up-to-date information on the Weathernext 2.0, but also to be able to disseminate that information into snowfall ranges.
  7. Cobalt
    Google's AI model I believe. It got some credit for latching onto the northwest trend for this past weekend's storm pretty early on. I believe it's available on StormVista?
  8. Cobalt
    https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps
  9. Cobalt
    The inclusion of the middle name really adds credence, nice touch
  10. Cobalt
    So incredibly easy to extrapolate what a similar shift at 0z would do.. Let's hope the Euro can fill in the blank for us
  11. Cobalt
    How does this compare to 12z?
  12. Cobalt
    I recall when it hallucinated a threat back in late Jan 2021.. went bonkers for a few runs with the operational and ensemble snowfall totals then completely lost it. That was at like hr 132 though, so this would be something else.
  13. Cobalt
  14. Cobalt
    Easier to bring it due North than due West at this range at the very least
  15. Cobalt
    RGEM honestly not too far off of GFS at hr 84
  16. Cobalt
    AI GFS looks like a slight step back on the coastal. Still further west than AI Euro, and it also has that initial slug of moisture further North to start. As others have noted, that might be a way to salvage a small snowfall if the main event fails to develop.
  17. Cobalt
    NS lobe is definitely further West than 12z through 72, but doesn't look like it's gonna get its act together.
  18. Cobalt
    In recent memory, it feels like the Euro is most fallible past hour 120+, and the GFS is most fallible within that range. Makes perfect sense then that the Euro showed a favorable solution at that range only to trade places with the GFS as we got closer. Anyways.. Euro AI shows a small event on the 5th
  19. Cobalt
    The AI Euro and GFS are remarkably similar at h500 and also precip extent. Comparing them to the 6z Euro indicates that, while an amped solution isn't expected or even likely, the 6z Euro is likely an outlier in how disorganized it is.
  20. Cobalt
    AI GFS is more amped/more west with the trough than 6z, continuing a 4+ run trend Euro at the same time for comparison
  21. Cobalt
    pretty good GEFS trend.
  22. Cobalt
    Translates to a 25-50 mile shift northwest. Not a hit, but a least a step. 0z yesterday was 200 miles + offshore
  23. Cobalt
    AI GFS continuing its trend of shifting the trough West
  24. Cobalt
    It had that northern stream component notably West early on into the run like NAM and Euro, but then yeah the entire look fell apart.
  25. Cobalt
    Quite funny that it has that early March 2010 fail you brought up a bit earlier as the #1 analog. I remember reading that that was a stone's throw from a significant event, but don't know much about it otherwise.
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