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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Here's a bit more detailed version of that UKMET map. For reference, 12z had 0" QPF for DC and points north.
  2. Cobalt
    America hasn't won a war since 1945.. feeling pretty confident that the GFS folds here.
  3. Cobalt
  4. Cobalt
    RGEM looks like .4" QPF through DCA. 18z was just barely 0.1", so I would say that is a definite improvement.
  5. Cobalt
    The LP goes due east right after that panel.. it's quite the ensemble member :p
  6. Cobalt
    Def looks to have improved for folks East of I-95 compared to 12z. Our snow attributed to the NS feature looks somewhat similar, if not a bit lighter. Hoping the mesos give us clarity on that soon.
  7. Cobalt
  8. Cobalt
    Early on with the 18z Euro.. it looks like our Four Corners shortwave has stopped bleeding west, at least compared to 12z. Probably won't have much significance, but at least it's something.
  9. Cobalt
    I recall him being a bit pessimistic for Jan 3rd though
  10. Cobalt
    hmmm
  11. Cobalt
  12. Cobalt
  13. Cobalt
    I've definitely seen worse.. it's interesting that the ensembles are once again diverging from the OP at this range, much like last week's storm.
  14. Cobalt
    Central Tim is only here to spend his Saturday night looking for reactions. Block, simple as that.
  15. Cobalt
    FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern.
  16. Cobalt
    Knickerbockerish
  17. Cobalt
    Pretty bold of you to use your one allotted daily post on that.
  18. Cobalt
    hmm.. SS energy is a bit more held back at hr 102 for the GFS compared to 18z.. might give it a bit more of a chance to separate from the northern stream energy Slightly healthier press of cold air as well..
  19. Cobalt
    I've heard the St. Louis subforum is bustling this time of year.
  20. Cobalt
    The trend so far this January has been for the NS to be modeled as faster when closing in range.. reel this one in!
  21. Cobalt
    Probably still a bit far west, gotta throw in a Dec 2010 for good measure
  22. Cobalt
    Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs.
  23. Cobalt
    Actually, the GFS seemed to be the best fit model for Jan 3rd. I was under the belief that this was due to the model's handling of the northern stream, modelling that piece of energy to be faster than any other guidance, which caused it to get out of the way faster and allow the SS shortwave to amplify. Someone can correct me on this, but I do definitely remember that it was showing glimpses of decent hits at ~60-72hrs out, but upped the ante with other guidance following suit shortly after.
  24. Cobalt
    Negative teens into PA Friday morning (on the mean, which should have its cold be even more muted). Couldn't ask for a better airmass.
  25. Cobalt
    Mhm, would probably give us some more wiggle room if it meets in the middle with the GFS/Canadian Also, that HP strength and positioning looks even better compared to 12z. Real stout one over top
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