Cobalt

AI Euro looks better than 18z

We forget how difficult it is to get large snowfalls in the metros during La Ninas. Another 5"+ snowfall at DCA would make this winter join 2024-25 as the only Ninas to feature two such snowfalls since 1995-96. The airport has had only 7 snowfalls exceed that mark in 21st century La Ninas, and the largest was 9.3", a mark we've exceeded 5 times in El Ninos during that span!

To date, DCA's winter has been colder (35.9F) and snowier (8.5") than last winter, as well as the winters of 2013-14, 2014-15, and the analog of 2005-06. Missing to the South is a gut punch, but it's sort of surprising we haven't had more misses like that so far. The winters of 2017-18 and 2021-22 were loaded with such storms, as well as atrocious short range model implosions. If you want true misery, 2000-01 and 2008-09 were both colder to this point and had a combined snow total of 6.3 inches to show for it.

a bit IMBY-centric but it did juice up compared to 6z. 50 miles North or so? vs 6z Doesn't end up meaning much for DC-North but it did go further South which at least opens up future possibilities. Very early in the game.

Looks better than 6z at least?

Modest lp close by with temps in the 20s. If only this could be locked in

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

The goblin freak show (GFS) is running

The cold push on the Euro is quite incredible, -17F in central PA while precip is developing in North Carolina.

Putting the Next in WeatherNext

Clearly our misfortune since 0z is due to the promised posting of the WeatherNext never coming to fruition. Thank you, this will reverse the course.

AI GFS looks a tick Northwest? At least at h500 and with that initial slug of precip.

Better trough orientation than 12z but considering that 12z was uber OTS that ain't gonna cut it

Some of this seems to be timing also? RGEM looks to be a few hours slower with the entire sequence of events than it was for 18z.

Weren't you just talking to a robot asking it to share secrets about the Weathernext's 18z run?

Why are we going through the individual members of an AI ensemble

h500 at hr 72 is a stone's throw away from the GFS solution.

There is effectively no way for Gemini to not only have direct and up-to-date information on the Weathernext 2.0, but also to be able to disseminate that information into snowfall ranges.

Google's AI model I believe. It got some credit for latching onto the northwest trend for this past weekend's storm pretty early on. I believe it's available on StormVista?

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps

The inclusion of the middle name really adds credence, nice touch

So incredibly easy to extrapolate what a similar shift at 0z would do.. Let's hope the Euro can fill in the blank for us

How does this compare to 12z?

I recall when it hallucinated a threat back in late Jan 2021.. went bonkers for a few runs with the operational and ensemble snowfall totals then completely lost it. That was at like hr 132 though, so this would be something else.