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RDRY

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Everything posted by RDRY

  1. RDRY
    It's also showing some upper-air energy dropping south on the back end, which keeps light snow going.
  2. RDRY
    It's coming!!! https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.4750253ec44d
  3. RDRY
    This still feels like an interior-and-north event for mainly snow. That SE ridge has been fierce.
  4. RDRY
    We're like diabetics enjoying a spoonful of chocolate mousse.
  5. RDRY
    A 943 low east of Maine. Now that's funny.
  6. RDRY
    The futurecast radar runs that line into Guatemala.
  7. RDRY
    But this Arctic "high" is more like a band of cold air than an actual high pressure center. There's almost no north-south orientation to it, so any southerly flow has tons of room to push north.
  8. RDRY
    The position and strength do look classic. But - maybe this is a complete misinterpretation on my part - the isobars around the high do not look classic. They aren't curved. It looks like just a fast, flat flow of Arctic air, which may explain why many of the models are forcing the system so far north, as the high is not really pressing south. If anything, it's giving up a little ground.
  9. RDRY
    GFS seriously needs to be scrapped at this point. Just start over.
  10. RDRY
    The GFS and its illegitimate brother zig when the other models zag.
  11. RDRY
    Don't think it's much of a factor, but the Western ridge is getting beaten down a bit more by a system moving in.
  12. RDRY
    GFS finds the soft spot in the high pressure zone and attacks it.
  13. RDRY
    I'm considering freezing rain frozen precip, but yeah. No way this stays snow for the coast per the Euro.
  14. RDRY
    The SLP track is just slightly north of due east from 120 to 168, and stays south of NYC. That should keep this mostly frozen.
  15. RDRY
    They're the top mets. I'll pay it some mind.
  16. RDRY
    The new GFS 12z was on crack. That would be biblical.
  17. RDRY
    Has the new GFS been better or worse than the current one? It seems to be much more erratic.
  18. RDRY
    NP. Didn't take it that way. Anyway, a flatter pattern can work just fine with decent cold air to the north -- those storms are usually pretty easy to forecast a few days out. Less angst over coastal development timing, blocking, minute track adjustments, etc.
  19. RDRY
    Nor should you. It was just an observation of a pattern we haven't seen much of in a while.
  20. RDRY
    One things seems pretty clear this winter -- northward model adjustments will not be the rule of the day. Flat and fast flow.
  21. RDRY
    Tidbits has the 6z
  22. RDRY
    Has the new GFS been worse than the old one? If so, how can the NOAA make the switch?
  23. RDRY
    This was a perfect "storm" for commuter chaos. A mid-November forecast of an inch then rain right up until game time. Followed by early to mid afternoon inch-an-hour, sticking snows. The city had no chance on this one.
  24. RDRY
    What else is new. I thought the GFS was getting an "overhaul."
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