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RDRY

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Everything posted by RDRY

  1. RDRY
    I believe January '96 was a classic example.
  2. RDRY
    I remember that storm with a pretty limited northwest precip field. And isn't early occlusion typical for the bigger east coast storms?
  3. RDRY
    Much more expansive precip field than last week's storm. Much stronger high. Slower mover. All good things.
  4. RDRY
    Gotcha. The GFS 500 chart just doesn't look like a classic western-CNE hit. The good dynamics are shunted south and east.
  5. RDRY
    I should have specified western Mass.
  6. RDRY
    Upper levels just don't support this hitting north of pike. The 500 MB trough orientation is more east-west than north-south.
  7. RDRY
    Low is forced east -- even a tic east-southeast -- from southern New Jersey, suppressing the heaviest banding south of western Mass. That high means business.
  8. RDRY
    So, the 6z Euro only runs to hour 90, but the 6z EPS runs longer?
  9. RDRY
    What is the difference between the GEPS and GEFS?
  10. RDRY
    An east coast bomb in (what looks to me) a mostly zonal flow. Is that really feasible?
  11. RDRY
    Still some flurries (NWS calling it "inversion" precip). Kind of funny all the focus on that big storm, with zero accumulations here. Then, nothing forecasted, and a couple inches.
  12. RDRY
    1-2 fell in the Berks this morning. Wasn't forecasted and isn't even showing up on radar. Must be some very localized upslope.
  13. RDRY
    Yes, 1994.
  14. RDRY
    The 17th-18th overrunning/southern system combo on the GFS is a bit reminiscent of February 8-11 of 1994.
  15. RDRY
    This is like an April storm -- heavy snow or drizzle.
  16. RDRY
    Can someone post a "the radar is filling in on the west side more than modeling showed" just to humor me? Gracias.
  17. RDRY
    Damn precip shield is like a hurricane. 982 on the Cape, and not a flake at the NY/MA border.
  18. RDRY
    Seeing it more and more. Models -- with their varying programming parameters -- are having a brutal time with these bombing coastals. Almost like the atmosphere has gotten away from them. They're all over the place even within a day of the event. Forecasters' nightmare.
  19. RDRY
    You've referenced that. But at the time (mid-afternoon yesterday), the GFS had shown around 4 inches, while none of the other models had any significant precip reaching the area. Even with an anticipated farther west expansion based on the mid and upper levels, the storm was much too far east.
  20. RDRY
    I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups.
  21. RDRY
    Berks still well outside forecasted warning snow region -- as it was when the WSW was issued yesterday afternoon. Seemed like an odd jumping-the-gun call, especially for this area.
  22. RDRY
    CMC looks about the same, maybe a hair north and east at 42.
  23. RDRY
    Obviously. Yet plenty on here also go by model output and even the pros were dubious of a western Mass hit this afternoon.
  24. RDRY
    Given the low position at the time of the WSW call, the low was way too far east on all the major models, except the GFS. The NWS mets must have anticipated a westward shift.
  25. RDRY
    It seemed premature, given the almost complete absence of model support. But voila, the models are now bending to their call.
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