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RDRY

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  1. RDRY
    I wonder if it would be preferable to have super-accurate forecast models (say, 5-day forecasts being as reliable as current 1-day forecasts). Definitely be a lot fewer posts here.
  2. RDRY
    Heh. Baby steps on the GFS. That's just how it rolls.
  3. RDRY
    Precip hangs on several hours longer on the 12k compared to 6z -- almost looks like a norlun trough.
  4. RDRY
    On 12/11/2020 at 11:19 PM, RDRY said: Upper levels just don't support this hitting north of pike. The 500 MB trough orientation is more east-west than north-south.
  5. RDRY
    The para is the upgraded GFS? Seems very erratic.
  6. RDRY
    Of the 4 main globals, I assume Euro verification is still #1. Which one is 2nd?
  7. RDRY
    Not surprised. GFS does this -- goes off on its own and holds for several runs. It's always possible it has the better read on this storm, but it's not likely. The ICON in its corner like Jack the Ripper as the cutman.
  8. RDRY
    Nitpicking the end of a 12k NAM run, but it's weird that the low doesn't deepen (996) between 78 and 84 hours.
  9. RDRY
    Classic GFS at this range. It goes rogue and holds its solution for several runs before joining the party.
  10. RDRY
    Does the ICON have any known biases? To my very untrained eye, it just always seems to be erratic.
  11. RDRY
    GFS has about the same low position approaching Jersey. But the high wins the battle with the weaker system.
  12. RDRY
    Strong shortwave -- check Arctic high + block -- check Gulf moisture -- check Atlantic moisture -- check
  13. RDRY
    Steve Cohen and a mid-December nor'easter. Spoiled.
  14. RDRY
    Trough sharpened up at 102. Makes the difference.
  15. RDRY
    Alrighty then.
  16. RDRY
  17. RDRY
    March '93 would have been the reigning king if it could have nudged another 100 miles east. As it was, craziest storm conditions I've ever seen.
  18. RDRY
    Jan '96, Feb '83 and Boxing Day -- Queens top 3.
  19. RDRY
    I believe January '96 was a classic example.
  20. RDRY
    I remember that storm with a pretty limited northwest precip field. And isn't early occlusion typical for the bigger east coast storms?
  21. RDRY
    Much more expansive precip field than last week's storm. Much stronger high. Slower mover. All good things.
  22. RDRY
    Gotcha. The GFS 500 chart just doesn't look like a classic western-CNE hit. The good dynamics are shunted south and east.
  23. RDRY
    I should have specified western Mass.
  24. RDRY
    Upper levels just don't support this hitting north of pike. The 500 MB trough orientation is more east-west than north-south.
  25. RDRY
    Low is forced east -- even a tic east-southeast -- from southern New Jersey, suppressing the heaviest banding south of western Mass. That high means business.
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