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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. Paleocene
    17z HRRR is consistent with showing the flippage battle happening between 3pm-5pm for the broader forum.
  2. Paleocene
    Surface temp maps were consistently 33 and above through 20-22z on basically every model for the last three days. We knew, and discussed, that it would be white rain at best, rate dependent. And that is exactly what is happening. IDK why people are surprised. It will flip. Pray for an earlier flip, and better rates after flip!
  3. Paleocene
    Putting this here for posterity; this is why we don't trust UKMET thermals lol.
  4. Paleocene
    Heavy Snain
  5. Paleocene
    newest HRRR for 7pm, norlun frederick-moco-ffx.
  6. Paleocene
    this is a big guy we got here. vis sat: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=nrnmidat-02-24-1
  7. Paleocene
    Yes, looking out my window a mile south of the beltway here in silver spring, we've got a bit more of a white rain situation. A few parachutes
  8. Paleocene
    A few beaten, mangled and depressed flakes mixing in here in silver spring. Emphasis on a few
  9. Paleocene
    Moderate rain at a toasty 37 in silver spring. Need the winds to turn and crank in the deeper cold from El Norte
  10. Paleocene
    You would too if you had a one year old daughter who will be up and ready for action at 6AM regardless of what the models say! We run a tight ship around here. OK sorry for banter hope you all get plastered with snow
  11. Paleocene
    Deathbands are coming west, Prince William is gonna get 1.0" QPF too. Godspeed. I'm off to bed believing this high note. Nearly time to nowcast anyway. Sweet dreams weenies
  12. Paleocene
    Even the "dry" 3k drops close to 3" QPF on parts of central Jersey. 12k has those 4" totals again. Jeeby weebies.
  13. Paleocene
    kuchera doesn't look as pretty as this, but where do I sign lol? still a lot to come especially for the east.
  14. Paleocene
    we get annihilated. I shouldn't have debbed earlier. all hail king NAM
  15. Paleocene
    I am posting this for posterity because it is HILARIOUS NAM has ingested i-95 emissions and they create SNOW
  16. Paleocene
    it owned thermals a month ago, and was pretty dead on with respect to when I was supposed to flip to sleet for the snowcrete dump. Levels upstairs are all great, we need the coastal to crank and rates to drop temps at the surface. I am choosing to believe the NAM that if things can get going by 1pm, I'll be seeing white rain IMBY at least
  17. Paleocene
    am I going to believe this NAM 12k panel verbatim? yes
  18. Paleocene
    @SomeguyfromTakomaPark yeah, this is what prevents me from going all in. just don't see it, we have paths to fail. but its gonna snow so im happy
  19. Paleocene
    lol i wouldnt consider myself old and it borderline gives me a seizure
  20. Paleocene
    I like your positivity and I agree, it could go boom. Just haven't seen that enough on guidance (a 25-50 mile shift west) to believe. But, I did just read Millvilles post and he actually knows what he's talking about unlike me lol. Maybe I should have more confidence
  21. Paleocene
    Imo, speaking as your geographic neighbor, no. Basically none of the guidance has DC consistently booming or jackpotting in any way. 2-4" bar for success, 6"+ would be great. 8" or more? I'd be shocked
  22. Paleocene
    I'm gonna get 4" and Annapolis 8" just 30 miles east, book it
  23. Paleocene
    Good thing that model sucks
  24. Paleocene
    Yes, this is one of those times, at least during the day and early evening tomorrow. When those of us who live on the "hills" just above the fall line at 300ft or above can do slightly better than those nearby at lower elevation. You will probably beat me with your extra 100 feet lol. The march 2013 fail storm was like this.
  25. Paleocene
    paging @Eskimo Joe. that looks, um, bad. for the regional power grid.
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