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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. quick someone tell me why the GFS is right and the CMC is wrong because its the CMC, right?
  2. It loves to do this when digital snow is on the digital ground. Maybe it's a sign it really believes in the snowpack.
  3. Surface temp profile as precip moves in/out. Pretty good. 850s better.
  4. Thanks. Is there a document/link somewhere that explains what the % shares that make up NBM are? Are those temporally consistent or do they shift?
  5. Credit to @Terpeast here, the presentation of what happens to the saturday-sunday cutter has changed dramatically over the last 48 hours on the GFS. TPV further east, no low spinning backward over the hudson, etc. I buy in to the "models need to see what's coming next" theory... chaos theory etc
  6. Where's @NorthArlington101's cycle? We're BACK BABY
  7. We had a lot of flickers in the 20910 zip code in the afternoon yesterday, but no outages. I have been impressed with Pepco reliability in my nhood (where I have been since 2020). Knock on wood.
  8. I'm here to chase cold, and at least the GFS is consistent with that.
  9. From Sorrento, ME (across the bay from Bar Harbor). The red house is a former captain's house on a now nonexistent pier, it is about 5' above high tide at mean level usually. this is a pic of a road in the same town that follows the coast; those trees on the other side of the road are also usually about 5-6 feet above mean high tide.
  10. This storm did not hit the Pepco service area too hard. only 0.1% of customers have an outage. https://secure.pepco.com/FaceBook/Pages/outagemap.aspx
  11. WTOP says the bay bridge is closed. Edit: sorry, been that way for a while apparently https://wtop.com/weather-news/2024/01/easy-breezy-but-certainly-not-beautiful-heavy-wind-and-rain-to-cover-dc/
  12. Parts of the backyard converting to pond status here in silver spring. Wind getting a bit gustier.
  13. The chase for modeled cold is looking good though:
  14. Agreed wholeheartedly; we have enormous expectations for models in winter. We aren't sitting here in May and June sweating the position of a low +/- 100 miles off Ocean City MD. Or whether it's going to be 65 and rain or 61 and rain. Or whether we're getting 0.5" of liquid or 0.8" of liquid. Unfortunately for us, we sit in the error range a lot of the time in these setups.
  15. I work from home most of the time so the 2.5 hour early Moco dismissal is NBD... but feeling for those elementary parents who get notice of a dismissal at 120pm. They just let us know about 30 minutes ago!
  16. I find my self on team PSU suspecting the elephant in the room. However, I cling to memories of 1997-2001 being a pretty bad (albeit shorter) stretch up in Harrisburg where I grew up. I think '00 might have had a winter saver or two. Anyone have a good site that gives you annual snowfall totals by airport?
  17. At least it's imaginary cold after our 3rd rainstorm in a row:
  18. Yeah, 00z had the transfer to the coast happen much further south.
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