Newman

Euro is a big hit for the 28th/29th

Rain mixing in here with sleet. Measured 1.25" of snow and sleet. Yearly total up to 10".

Snow has begun here and immediately started to coat everything. NAM, HRRR, etc had it starting around 7 but I'll take an extra hour.

Going to need February to spiral us into a new dimension of snow just to make up for this horrible winter so far. Eliminating the November storm gets me to a whopping 1.25" on the season. I do believe February will produce based on some other met forecasts. I'm too tired of this winter to draw my own conclusions at this point so I'm simply riding along with other forecasts.

I might not even start as snow anymore. Straight to rain.

Flood Warnings > Winter Storm Warnings

Yeah I'm kinda in a wait-and-see mode right now. Most models have trended significantly warmer for Berks County but I think we can eek out 4-6" on the initial thump.

NAM 3k continues to show positive trends aloft. If we can get the mid-level jet to stay weaker and deflect further offshore, then inland areas will have a better chance of staying snow and coastal/I-95 areas will have a better chance of staying sleet/freezing rain.

Light flurries right now. Things look much weaker than they did even a day ago. Oh well hoping for an inch.

GFS for the Thursday night snow

Just look at the last 3 runs of the NAM. The strong NP jet breaks down the western ridge. It results in less southerly angular momentum of the TPV energy and would likely result in a better southern solution. Now I'm not saying this is the end-result, but looking at the December storm and this past weekends storm, we couldn't get the PV energy to phase in due to interference within the PNA region. This resulted in a horrible orientation of confluence into the NE. Root for the seasonal trend of less northern stream - southern stream interaction.

BTW, the Euro and EPS trended so much more favorably for this weekend. More separation of the TPV lobe and southern energy. I think you want to see a continued trend in less western ridge amplification. That will help to limit the southerly angular momentum of the TPV and allow for it to scoot east without phasing into our system. The Euro was so close to looking like the UKMET. The surface didn't reflect it because, in the end, the TPV does phase in, but a couple more ticks in less phasing and you will see the rubber band snap and boom we've got a UKMET solution.

Not giving up the 20th and around the 26th of January still hold promise. But if we dont score on the closing stretch through January then well congrats you got February and March to make up for all the snow you missed in December and January.

Lol watch the 20th rain. I'm done with this winter if we don't get anything through January. The highest it could get is a C+ with all of December and January snow less.

0.75"

GFS and Euro agree for the most part. Big week of tracking boys.

The differences between the Euro and other guidance is the timing of the shortwave. The Euro delays the shortwave which allows for the TPV induced press to fully come through the area. The GFS is earlier which allows for it to blast through before any real cold air can funnel in. If I were to bet, I would think the TPV press would be undermodeled at this distance, but you don't know. Either way, the cold air in the wake of the storm is absolutely frigid. If a major snow and ice storm occurred like the Euro depicted, thousands would be without power with no heat, etc. That would be more damaging than the storm itself.

I'll have one order of the ozone layer please.

Finished with 0.75". Season total up to 8.75".

Mount Holly upped their high end map

Light pixie dust snow has begun here.

It did well with January 2016 if that means anything in the current situation.

21z RAP:

I wouldn't be looking at the over running. Watch the trends in the actual coastal. That is what is trending north. The NE confluence continues to relax. Rather significant changes seen on the NAM. I love seeing some PVA getting into SE PA.

Sorry Redsky.