Newman

Squall line still on for tomorrow, localized damaging winds the highest threat. Small hail possible too with the healthy cold pool developing above us. Lapse rates should be decent tomorrow as a result.

Gusty squall line possible Tuesday

Just a breezy shower blowing through, nothing crazy. On to the next threat whenever that is...

Two tornado warnings down in MD already

Well of course, I never root for death or destruction. But I'm a met student who loves extreme weather, as do most people on this board I assume. I'm here to track the storms and watch them atmospherically. What results from them is of course the worst part, but its fascinating. Take today for example. CAPE and instability is very limited. But look at the extreme 850mb jet we've got screaming above us! Shear and veering is off the charts. Hodographs are very curvy. In fact, get ready for a Tor watch, 80% by the SPC:

We'll see about this....I don't like the cloud debris and CINH around. Will need some sun or at least breaks in clouds to boost CAPE values.

Bassfield, MS just got hit by a likely EF4+ tornado with another one right on its heals. Unreal.

And soundings show storm motions will be upward of 65-70 mph. With that forward motion, it'll elevate the risk of a damaging wind threat.

I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

The 12z 3k NAM sure is showing some curvy hodographs. This one right around the DC area at 18z:

A rare Day 3 outlook upgrade:

I agree, the parameters are solid for some severe weather but the overall extent of convection and precip looks meager. Maybe a stray severe storm here or there tomorrow.

3k NAM sounding for my area tomorrow. Bring on severe weather already!

Could not agree more. I'm very active on other NYC centered forums but it's tough with the clear bias. Here many of us experience the same weather and it would be great to talk more but it's not worth my time if there's only like 5 or 6 total members that post here lol.

August PDO data: 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 August AMO data: 2017 0.222 0.224 0.164 0.280 0.311 0.305 0.299 0.307 0.347 0.430 0.349 0.361 2018 0.170 0.059 0.129 0.061 -0.004 -0.014 0.015 0.110 0.159 0.141 -0.124 -0.063 2019 -0.018 0.078 0.118 0.121 0.085 0.171 0.349 0.335

ENSO 3.4 continues to dive: ENSO 4 is as well with plenty of easterly wind bursts nearing 180W:

From 2009, talking about changing global circulations including Hadley Cell/Mid-Latitude Cell disruptions, etc.: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_09_Widening.pdf

Courtesy to Isotherm, he and I had a small conversation on the disruption of the global jet stream patterns due to the emergence of changing Hadley Cell and Mid-Latitude Cell circulations. As SSTs continue to warm poleward due to the background state and changing climate, we see more convection which acts to disrupt the typical Hadley Cell circulations we know. Typically we see rising air at the ITCZ which spreads poleward and subsides around 30N which creates the Horse Latitudes. With convection being able to fire further north, the Hadley Cell circulations expand which create stronger gradients and subsequently strengthen the mid-Latitude cells. For the United States, that means the Pacific Jet stream becomes stronger. What I mean as "this isn't new" is the warmth of the Pacific and overall global oceans. We've seen warmth of our oceans for awhile now. However, are we finally entering the critical time where we truly do start to see global jet stream changes? Are winters going to be the same again? Or will we see more variability resulting in bigger and more extreme winter events? Have we already seen those changes? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that in theory the global jet stream patterns should be or have already changed in the changing climate.

The PAC jet is still raging due to Pacific Warmth spreading poleward and subsequently expanding Hadley Cells and strengthening the mid-Latitude cell (Pacific Jet). This isn't new, though. The Pacific overall has been warm for the past couple years to a decade. The question is how will the strong Pacific jet trend and/or affect the upcoming winter. Last year the Pacific was so hostile. Could we see a repeat?

ENSO region 4 has cooled in the past week and is at its coolest since a month ago: Likely due to a strong burst of easterly wind stress. The GFS forecast of a burst of westerly wind stress could help to bring the temperatures back up again:

Here's a look at how the SST's have changed since June:

1993-94 anyone? The ONI progression looks similar to what we could see this winter. Perhaps this winter is a touch warmer. Lets say we throw in 1993-94 for a similar west based warmish Neutral regime with its warm PDO and a cool 1+2, 2013-14 for its warm blob south of Alaska (I'm not sold on that blob going away just yet. 2013-14 had a cool Neutral/weak Nina), and 2005 just for its warmer and positive Atlantic/AMO.

New IRI/CPC ENSO probabilities have been posted: El Nino has ended: Here is what the July SST's looked like: The July AMO value finished at 0.350, up from 0.171 in June and the most positive AMO value since Dec 2017.