Newman

So..... Edit: I'm posting the snow map because why not, its freakin May and even a trace of snow is rare/historic this time of year

Lol

Wind is much much stronger than i was expecting, any inversion seems insignificant right now with gusts much stronger than any of our previous wind events. Strong jet up above clearly doing its work.

Just a breezy shower here, you guys further east should have a chance at doing better. At least I got a nice pic:

Although the cold air aloft argues at least a chance of small hail, even in the non-severe storms. Won't be severe level hail, but peas and dimes certainly possible. Idk, extended range looks awful with all the rain chances with limited/none severe chances. Maybe we change things around in May and the heat finally comes.

Yep, the radar looks like crap. Morning showers helping to stabilize everything as always. But even so, the setup was always riding a fine edge. Low CAPE environments don't typically produce well around here unless you're into the garden variety 30mph breezy frontal passage showers.

Squall line still on for tomorrow, localized damaging winds the highest threat. Small hail possible too with the healthy cold pool developing above us. Lapse rates should be decent tomorrow as a result.

Gusty squall line possible Tuesday

Just a breezy shower blowing through, nothing crazy. On to the next threat whenever that is...

Two tornado warnings down in MD already

Well of course, I never root for death or destruction. But I'm a met student who loves extreme weather, as do most people on this board I assume. I'm here to track the storms and watch them atmospherically. What results from them is of course the worst part, but its fascinating. Take today for example. CAPE and instability is very limited. But look at the extreme 850mb jet we've got screaming above us! Shear and veering is off the charts. Hodographs are very curvy. In fact, get ready for a Tor watch, 80% by the SPC:

We'll see about this....I don't like the cloud debris and CINH around. Will need some sun or at least breaks in clouds to boost CAPE values.

Bassfield, MS just got hit by a likely EF4+ tornado with another one right on its heals. Unreal.

And soundings show storm motions will be upward of 65-70 mph. With that forward motion, it'll elevate the risk of a damaging wind threat.

I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

The 12z 3k NAM sure is showing some curvy hodographs. This one right around the DC area at 18z:

A rare Day 3 outlook upgrade:

I agree, the parameters are solid for some severe weather but the overall extent of convection and precip looks meager. Maybe a stray severe storm here or there tomorrow.

3k NAM sounding for my area tomorrow. Bring on severe weather already!

August PDO data: 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 August AMO data: 2017 0.222 0.224 0.164 0.280 0.311 0.305 0.299 0.307 0.347 0.430 0.349 0.361 2018 0.170 0.059 0.129 0.061 -0.004 -0.014 0.015 0.110 0.159 0.141 -0.124 -0.063 2019 -0.018 0.078 0.118 0.121 0.085 0.171 0.349 0.335

ENSO 3.4 continues to dive: ENSO 4 is as well with plenty of easterly wind bursts nearing 180W:

From 2009, talking about changing global circulations including Hadley Cell/Mid-Latitude Cell disruptions, etc.: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_09_Widening.pdf

Courtesy to Isotherm, he and I had a small conversation on the disruption of the global jet stream patterns due to the emergence of changing Hadley Cell and Mid-Latitude Cell circulations. As SSTs continue to warm poleward due to the background state and changing climate, we see more convection which acts to disrupt the typical Hadley Cell circulations we know. Typically we see rising air at the ITCZ which spreads poleward and subsides around 30N which creates the Horse Latitudes. With convection being able to fire further north, the Hadley Cell circulations expand which create stronger gradients and subsequently strengthen the mid-Latitude cells. For the United States, that means the Pacific Jet stream becomes stronger. What I mean as "this isn't new" is the warmth of the Pacific and overall global oceans. We've seen warmth of our oceans for awhile now. However, are we finally entering the critical time where we truly do start to see global jet stream changes? Are winters going to be the same again? Or will we see more variability resulting in bigger and more extreme winter events? Have we already seen those changes? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that in theory the global jet stream patterns should be or have already changed in the changing climate.