the_other_guy

42F Temp dropped from 44 at 5 am Unless its heavy precip, we needed these pre dawn hours for significant icing

I dont like what is happening in this forum with the weenies and personal attacks. spiraling out of control pretty quickly

I’m at 44° right now. Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing

This makes perfect sense to me given the setup

If you approach each potential ice storm in NYC with the bias and knowledge that due to geography, topography, and urbanization, the coastal plain is unlikely to see a major icing event, you will be at a good starting point. Shoutout to Snowman19 who accurately called this NYC event to many weenies

a good chunk of snow in the city is gone. I was quite surprised to see that when I landed

There is your problem area in this scenario. Prolonged temps in the 20s with topography

Yeh, I get the personal issues. But if there is possible validity in the statement, that has to be acknowledged

You got 4 weenies for this. The statement may be overly simplistic given the complexity of the phasing with this system But…when push comes to shove from these models, high probability of validity for the 5 boroughs

Amen. Not in the cement jungle during daylight hours

Also, population density. The area around 84 is vast and sparsely populated. Eastern Suffolk (say William Floyd on East) is tiny with more water than land. But even in its most rural parts, has more density than the 84 corridor does…so it gets talked about more.

Truth is, if you live south or east of 287, ice storms verify. There is no topography to hold the surface cold and, in NYC , too much cement if its marginally cold. 1994 comes to mind. The prolonged sleet storm Valentines 2007 also comes to mind. It is rare. NYC metro is likely looking at a cold rain with some icing N and W.

This was real and spectacular! To use Seinfeld lingo from that era!

11F at 7 am in Hastings

GFS was first to pick up on eastward shift last week (albeit to the extreme) Let’s see if it’s onto something here

7F! Coldest night yet. I cant believe how many single digit nights we have had this month. And they havent been strung together in one shot but rather spread out

9F at 7 am. Very cold January. If the warmth holds off another 2 weeks, we are almost out of it anyway February happens quick and so does the sun angle discussion

Yeah but that doesn’t mean anything if the main band of the storm got 2+ feet of snow NYC was on the eastern end of the storm. The bullseye was/is the twin forks up to Boston you had guys hugging models that showed them what they wanted to show. Talking about 30 and 40 inch totals and then getting angry when it backed off. No blocking. Fast flow. Eastern storm. GFS, for all its warts, picked up on it early. That is why most of the forum area has 6 inches and not 2 feet. I will say that again… Most of the area is closer to 6 inches than two feet. Blowing masked that in height of storm. It is obvious post storm

I put on xmas music. Very festive remembering when we used to have Decembers like this

Done. Like a light switch in Westchester. From wild to nothing

Like an ad for a snow blower. So nice and easy today

Wind increasing significantly as snow rates decrease and storm pulls out

Still not at 5 inches on stick yet, but the photo shows a lot more than that. Any good advice on how to measure this type of snow????

Yup. They were always set up nicely…and they will get the prize

What I said above was when you guys clung onto epic hits and the GFS was East, it was dismissed as an outlier. Several of us pointed out that you shouldn’t dismiss it given seasonal trends. It caught on very early that this was going to be an East storm. And it was dismissed. And when all is said and done, this is a heavily eastern storm. So it was onto something early on and dismissed as an outlier…but there was some truth in its eastern extremes. Enjoy the snow!