the_other_guy

Back end world almost never works in NYC metro sadly

Yeh… just like Thursday looks too Someone’s gonna do very well on the interior sections tomorrow

Why dont we concentrate on tomorrows storm instead of obsessing over a storm a week from now? anytime this forum gets all hyped up a week out… It always leads to disappointment.

25F this morning. Colder than forecast

Long Island…

the rare Miller B! Im always more comfortable with an A…it’s what I know

too early. at least it feels like Dec today

There is no cold air. Even overnight lows up this way are just below freezing. you need a thread the needle event to manufacture cold air.

up at Belleayre this morning. not worth a photo. conditions are borderline spring conditions. 39F. Fog and drizzle with breaks of sun. pretty awful start to the ski season… frankly it’s a miracle they’re open at all

if it happens, I’ll give you a lot of credit.you were calling for something this weekend. That’s close enough for me.

What you are looking at is a blip on the radar during a transition period before snowfall and prolonged winter becomes rare in places like the NYC metro. The finale, the throwing of fuel on the fire, etc. 30-40 years from now when snowfall is 10 inches or less except for those one off years where we get a big storm. Like interior North Carolina. Trend lines are all there. No dire predictions here. It is coming and it’s coming is accelerating. Most of us will see it. you are really seeing it play out in real time in December. I watched all these meteorologists looking out at forecast models three weeks ahead, telling me how this December was gonna be very cold and snowy. we haven’t had a very cold and snowy December in years. and we likely won’t have one again. There will be one offs here and there, but the ocean waters and corresponding airmass have lobbed the month of Dec off winter in our area. The March addition that many talk about is, again, an aberration until it disappears

NYC 28” EWR 30” MMU 35” ISP 32” SWF 40”

AN Nov and Dec with BN Dec snow during La Nina usually leads to a garbage winter, correct?

yeah, I think you’re a spot on. looks like we’re easily cruising to an above normal month. the question is by how much and can we eek out some snow and cold periods just a terrible pattern and we’ve been in it solidly since before Thanksgiving.

Im starting to think it’s right, sadly. This is looking like a wet and mild stretch through mid month now.

26F Lots of Frost this morning in Westchester…warm up coming

So the pattern change 3 weeks out went bust? Go figure! 48F to kick of a nice November, ahem December week. Wet, wild, and mild continue!

I mean, if it was November, it would’ve been erased. When was last time we have had a well BN (or normal) second half of Dec?

Always 3-5 too warm…but looks spot on for week 1 with that correction. Wouldnt be so quick to dismiss it with the models playing chase the tail on the “pattern change”

This week looks real warm…for December. 50F now. Nice band of Heavy Rain in Eastern PA headed our way.

Exactly. Been cutter city so far with only cold air occurring as storms pass. Another one tomorrow. Another one next week. Then we move to mid month. 2 -3 weeks is an eternity in forecasting.

Too many cutters with upper 50s in a row. Dont like it. Looks like another two on tap

Boxing Day was a top storm. The way it blew up in the middle of Xmas Day was what made it cool. The fact that the mayor was out of town, and the sanitation workers, and the mayor had something going on also led to a prolonged period of being “shut in” like a much larger storm.

You need another Nino (and brutally bad winter) to likely change the status quo. Something snapped in 2015-2016 Also, the background state of those two winters was a colder climate. 93-94 was spectacular in a way that likely isnt possible today…an almost endless supply of cold and storms. I think there was a two week break towards the end of January

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