the_other_guy

What does “changing course” entail?

cutter on xmas? Cant even make this up…

Running +5. Quite warm pattern. barring one off stuff, NYC doesnt get snow with +5 Edit: And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing

Depends what you are looking for to save winter. Goose egg for Dec plus Sept thru Dec warmth doesnt lead to a good winter especially a Nina setup. Does one 30 inch historic storm save winter? Like 2015 Or was 2015 a scary island of warmth, with almost no snow outside that storm? That 30 inches melted in one week…which was crazy.

Only in a bad pattern when you are desperately looking for a new pattern. We had a very warm fall. Nov eeked out a negative. That was with the new baseline and it was barely negative. The latest guidance for the rest of December doesn’t look great. The fat lady hasn’t started singing yet but she’s warming up for December. We have also gone into a very dry pattern…Which we haven’t had much of lately. This isn’t how good winters start.

Looks like another AN week ahead. Some days very much so. Just a brutal month.

Forsythia has buds on it…

54F Beautiful. If you could lower the taxes it would be like living in the Carolinas. Still in shorts and a T. I find it interesting that we’re not even in the warmest departures across the nation. I guess it could have been worse thus far. Also of note, as I was flying over fly over country the past two days, There isn’t much snow anywhere… But if you’re going skiing in the Salt Lake City area Utah has been getting a good amount. That area and the eastern California are the only areas of snow cover observed

Are you the guy from Astoria quoted on page 4 of the Daily News? Feel better all kidding aside

You wonder how much longer skiing will be viable in the Catskills in this rapidly warming climate? Sad

youre living over a geothermal

This is different. never cooled down. this year, the solstice will actually be the cool point in the month thus far.

Yes like the 15° swing from Westchester to Queens this morning. You could almost plant pansies for xmas

Yeh. I dont get what is going on in this forum to be honest with you. Long range guidance is iffy at best. Even if we want to take it for Gospel, the pattern depicted is marginal for larger storms. I laugh when I read about clippers. Clippers are an Upper Midwest thing. They almost never produce for the NYC metro. Only thing that is certain is that it is warm the next few days. Then it will cool down and still be AN. Wash, rinse, repeat temp wise. December will end well above normal temperature wise… even with the new normal baeeline.

28F Below Freezing! Woohoo!

Beautiful weather out. No one is discussing it 50F Brilliant sunshine

Forget about eight days from now…beautifully warm out 55F Busted every forecast for my area. Impressive to say the least

If you are waiting for winter on 1/20, you have a shit winter. Plus, the last several years have featured 3 week shutout patterns…many of which occurred in January. Even that frigid new years week a few years ago led to 2-3 weeks of AN I think we need a really good pattern or we get nothing. It isnt as simple as winter start in later… Novembers have really been pretty good. unfortunately it’s a waste of November. December has warmed dramatically

Quoting me again huh haha The 80s were cold. 90s colder than this You knew it was winter even with little snow What we have now is a dying season

It’s stupid childish behavior. The first instance I never said 2015 didn’t count… I said that because it was so high, it skewed the decade average and a median would show a better picture of decade wide trends. Today I pointed out that we had a record week in December and this week isn’t going to be anywhere close to it despite posters yearning for a headline. Both very valid points. But you two guys pretend that you are in junior high school reading a Snaps books and throwing around emojis. I don’t get burned or feel burned when I present factual information.

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015 61 66 66 66 68 52 59 Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already. It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed.

sultry in Charleston this morning already 63F. Yesterday was downright cool and today its going to be hot on the east coast

Celebrate another mask mandate? Yea! Boom!

You have issues when people try to engage you with a counterpoint He makes valid points; so do you. There is a new normal. He is saying, it’s not all that many days above normal. You are looking at the historical perspective of every week being in a top 10 because we are warmer now than 120 years of records prior to this point. His counterpoint (not failed reasoning) is that running around like chicken little every year it is warm is bizarre when it is the new normal. We have another poster that keeps referencing old baselines vs the new baseline with “nowadays.” It is good to have a historical perspective, but it is also fair to point out that the baseline as changed and the temps aren’t all that unusual. In a weather based forum vs a climate based forum, it is important to at least acknowledge what he is saying