the_other_guy

56F this morning. Chilly, but warm wind signals change.

Today is the first fall-feel day.

Its insanity. Every rain storm does damage to my property. Limbs down, small mudslides, leaves everywhere. I redid my patio in the spring and its already a mess.

54F Starting to notice the first colors on the trees in Westchester this morning Crisp fall morning

Yeh I could see the flare up

Im glad the initial line petered out a bit. Very slow moving. Very ugly if it had more moisture Almost the last time we had a cold front moves so slow? That thing covered 100 miles all day long

“However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.” All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east. I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day. Also never hit 80

Yeah but it’s never really going away because this is the new normal. Extended warm wet sectors. Like 55 and humid xmas week…

So what? It is 9/23. What is that+5? The real story of these past few days hasn’t been extreme warmth…It is extreme humidity and very warm overnight lows because of that humidity. If it was September 23 and you were looking at 80° with historically normal humidity you would say it was a pleasantly mild day. Instead you’re getting swarmed by mosquitoes as you walk through soup

Very very slow moving.

Its not that warm. Just disgustingly humid. Glad the sun isnt out!

At this point watching these Temp/Dewpoint deviations is like watching a rain/snow line for a cutter. We know what is going to happen before it starts It took a couple of decades to say this, but this is your new September weather: a slightly cooler August We are no longer transitioning to a new climate…We are in a new climate in the NYC area

Any chance to start adding HPN or SWF to this list?

Flying around the northern end earlier this evening

Ironically nothing over Tahoe or mid California today. Crystal clear. Nice view of Yosemite from above

And funny the last month of winter and first month of summer have the slowest temp rise.

It’s a sad situation…And of course that usually affects the most vulnerable. In that part of queens you have a lot of immigrants, don’t speak English, Don’t know the rules, they live in illegal basement apartments. If I had to bet… they had no way out

Saw Mill River just a wee bit out of its banks

Newark Airport gets a bath it didnt want ✈️

KJFK 020124Z 13020G33KT 6SM -TSRA BR BKN010 BKN023CB 24/23 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 12033/0117 LTG DSNT N AND SW TSB24 FRQ LTGIC OHD-SW TS OHD-SW MOV NE P0002 T02390233 KLGA 020122Z 34012G31KT 1 1/2SM R04/3000VP6000FT +TSRA BKN006 BKN012 OVC017CB 20/M01 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 25035/0110 WSHFT 0103 LTG DSNT ALQDS OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0037 T02001006 KEWR 020109Z 35019G29KT 1SM R04R/1200VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC018CB 19/18 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 36032/0057 WSHFT 0048 LTG DSNT ALQDS FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0091 T01940183 $ KFRG 020116Z 11017G33KT 10SM FEW007 BKN011 OVC027 23/22 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 12033/0107 LTG DSNT SW-N RAE16 PRESFR P0002 T02330217 KISP 020056Z 09012G22KT 5SM BR SCT007 BKN013 OVC023 21/21 A2964 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW RAE45 SLP035 P0010 T02110206 $ Wide array of wind directions depending on front location and storm situation EWR and LGA with NW winds

No One logical said it wasn’t gonna be a big deal…But the worst of it (in terms of totals) will be north and west of New York City…Because whatever falls between now and midnight, we have lost out on 6 to 8 hours of heavy rain and they didnt.

Wouldnt that still be below what most models were showing? You need that rain thats been falling all morning upstate to get those strong totals

Because models were predicting 8-10 inches of rain. Looking at radar, the immediate metro area will miss out on several hours of heavy rain as it skirts north (at least initially) Without those hours of precip, the storm totals becomes a bust. Now, if you are in the mid Hudson Valley…caching. But that is off by 80-100 miles in terms of heaviest precip bands. By modern forecasting expectations, that is a model error (not huge, but significant nonetheless) I believe it is cloudy in Forest Hills at moment, and pouring in Newburgh. That distance is the “bust”

I’m not saying anything was wrong. I’m saying I agree with the drier model by looking at the radar and movement of cells.

And this makes sense given the radar. This isnt a coastal storm. A lot of people are looking at this thinking the radar is going to magically fill-in like it’s a Low forming off the Delmarva in January