the_other_guy
-
Posts
2,876 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by the_other_guy
-
but you don’t need to Nowcast for a general idea. Yesterday’s event was very well forecasted. It was a 1-3 event with a glaze of ice and rain on Long Island and immediate coast. What you have going on here are people wish casting and picking models That agree with whatever they want. more alarmingly, you have a national weather service that is posting a bit too much on social media and getting into a sensationalist type agency. As for the forum, it always went on. But it’s gotten into a new level and it’s quite upsetting. Ultimately, it leads to disappointment and people saying the models fucked up. But they didn’t fuck up. People just chose an outlier and tried to form a trend in their minds. and they are armed with a nice colorful map from the national weather service that they end up on the low end of and call it a bust. Unless something drastically changes, Friday is another 1-3 event with more cold air. you can nowcast idiosyncrasies as they happen. but you can’t make this a 6 inch storm, and then say the forecast was wrong… unless there is model consensus on a drastic change in the next 48 hours. whatever Friday brings, enjoy it. And enjoy this week because it ends sunday and there is no return date…yet -
This week is probably your winter. I hate to say that and hope Im wrong, but I think Im right
-
Lets stop with the win/bust declarations until this is all over. Obviously a dynamic situation here
-
What would they plow? You need salters for days like this. Roads are wet going to icy
-
Nice sea of warmth after our next dusting/cooldown this weekend. This fucking winter…that is all
-
Upton did better than Mt Holly with the graphical maps.
-
light snowfalls, and the urban concrete jungle don’t mix well together. Even if it’s cold out.
-
it wasn’t a bust at all Just a bunch of guys talking themselves into a frenzy on a 1-3 inch snowstorm this was a perfectly modeled, perfectly forecasted, 1 to 3 inch snowstorm. And as myself and several other posters tried to say yesterday, if you set your expectations for a light snowfall you were going to be happy. And if you set your expectations on a fabricated 6 inch snowfall, you weren’t going to be happy.
-
2 hour delay for ice. Preemptive. Who else?
-
I just don’t understand what happened with this forecast. any changeover was supposed to be down by the coast at 1 PM now they have me going to ice up here, and the coast going to rain by 10 AM. major shift that I don’t see reflected in the models.
-
given where the storm is now and the fact that LaGuardia is supposed to be over to a mix of rain and snow by 7 AM and then all rain by 9 AM, I’ll call bullshit on this map early on. I hope I’m wrong, but something happened here today where this changeover is happening a lot earlier than was originally forecast.
-
wouldn’t it be funny if the main story of this ended up being the ice? 2-4 with ice on top is a much different story than 2-4 period. Much more impactful to travel
-
I think a lot of people on this forum are going to be disappointed tomorrow morning. Not because it’s not gonna snow. it’s definitely gonna snow. You guys are trying to make this a bigger storm than what it is. With each run you’re trying to make this seem like this is a 6 incher that’s coming in. Its not. Just like last week with each run, you tried to make it seem like it wasn’t going to snow. You guys talk yourself into stuff over and over and then you get disappointed. Last week was a 6 inch storm with the rain snow line in the Bronx. This is a 3 inch storm outside of urban areas.
-
for all the noise around Central Park measurements, they essentially got no snow last winter. A tenth up or down, you never looked out and saw white ground in Central Park last winter. To me that makes the record good enough.
-
Transient warm shot hahaha
-
Would have been packed. 25 years ago schools rarely closed, the trusty 7 train took my mother around in all sorts of storms and blizzards, and the idea of banning travel would have been ludicrous. Now we live in a world where everyone with a twitter account and an ounce of power feel the need to preemptively declare an emergency, tell us how this setup is more dangerous than anything before, and use both those reasons to take away the right to leave the house from hours before an event to hours or days after. Cant wait to see my kids school delayed 2 hours for 3 inches of snow on Tuesday because Westchester never saw snow before
-
And that’s what you really want. You want this to fall at night to get maximum accumulation
-
Start looking at HRRR now
-
and I think that’s what we’re working with. Guys keep mentioning higher snowfall amounts. It’s really what it is and if it’s cold enough and if the position is right for it. There are no warning level snows coming out of this
-
There’s just not that much precipitation here on the NAM. At least for NYC Metro
-
Here. I dont care about KC haha. This is run of the mill winter time “cold” for NYC. Nothing Arctic about it for us.
-
it isn’t that cold. It’s like 29 or 30. You are looking at one aspect, which is the track, but the development and amount of precip are the other aspects. It keeps backing into coast and (very warm) water comes in, it isnt a good mix for a 1-3 type event. Daytime, as I mentioned, also sucks for NYC with these small events. Becomes a grass/car topper special on a street with subway lines underneath. Bluewave said Jan is running +6 in NYC. That is disgustingly warm. Everything is warm. the ground is warm. The water is warm.
-
Cold snap isnt that cold either.
-
If you are lucky.
