the_other_guy

all that stuff causes cancer. you’re almost better off with the ticks

you are over analyzing it. There’s not enough natural elements in New York City. It’s too large of a concrete jungle. that does not do well in a warming climate. The things you mention apply to the coastal areas of Long Island just fine. But there’s a reason why the rest of the region has snow and there’s a giant hole over New York City and it’s called overdevelopment that holds heat and a rapidly warming climate. Frankly, I expect it to continue. All those warm overnights ( plus 10 to 15 from the surrounding areas) were leading to this. I would love if somebody had some data from China or some other tightly packed Asian countries with huge cities to see if something similar is going on there. Long story short, I don’t think this is a natural phenomenon, but a man-made phenomenon interacting with a man-made warming situation. It just doesn’t get cold in New York City for any prolonged period of time anymore and it’s not gonna snow under those circumstances. But if you go 20 miles north or east or west or even south, you see much less of an example of this

It was icy as hell last night. there was a fine layer of new snow on top of all the wet roads that froze. The salt was needed and appreciated by 5pm haha

I don’t know I guess there’s a lot less snow on the ground on Long Island and in the city or something. Because all these posts keep talking about snow down in Philadelphia and in Washington. And I’ve had snow on the ground since the last storm and I got more snow today and it’s a winter Wonderland and I don’t understand the fascination talking about Southern Jersey. These posts make it seem like we have no snow on the ground and haven’t had snow on the ground all week. It is very odd though. I can’t wait for next week when it’s gonna be 50 and there won’t be snow on the ground. I want to see the same people posting about how awful it is.

just went sledding with the kids. Excellent conditions because the ice from last week coupled by the couple of inches of new snow make it a fast chute.

Anybody know why I can’t post a photo on here even with a screenshot

it’s a shit winter no doubt. But to say to the guy that there can’t be a ridge out west three weeks from now is totally ridiculous. and to write off the next 60 days is totally absurd. When you get to 3/7 and you see two weeks of warm weather, then you write off the winter. right now we’re still in the game and even a mediocre winter gives its chances.

don’t latch onto long range models and run with them. And don’t latch onto people having an agenda on this site and run with them. The rest of January looks hostile, and then it looks to ease as we go into early February. But its mid winter and anything is possible. With certainty wont be warm thru 3/1

you make me laugh too. what do you think it’s just gonna be 50 for the rest of the winter?

Le Harve!

yeah, next week and the extreme warmth is a real kick in the balls in the heart of winter

finally have a snow day feel here in Westchester. Streets are all wet, but it’s sticking where it has to stick very nicely on top of the original snowpack. When all is done in January, we will have had snow on the ground for about 10 days of the 30 day month. I’ll take that as a win for a +5 month. And we live to fight for February. my gut tells me unless a big one comes We are going to be solidly below average for snowfall this year. but if we can get another week like this in February that scratches your itch and you reload hopefully for next winter.

It’s been snowing at a good rate here in Westchester for several hours. It’s just not sticking anywhere but on top of the old snow. it’s making that look pretty at least.

This needed to happen at night for it to work

In a couple decades, this will be near your seasonal average too haha

yeah, but this is a shit winter for them too. You’re comparing two piles of shit and wondering who’s is bigger 09/10 was good for all.

and they’ve been accompanied by a lot of posts asking why MJO doesn’t work anymore when predicting patterns. interesting take on this and I appreciate your post

Since this isnt much of a storm anyway, I’ll take the lesser of the storm and have the kids in school. In the past few weeks, we’ve had too many closures and delays for about 4 inches of snow. It’s just too disruptive to our lives. Snow starting in Westcheter.

this is what I meant. insanity enjoy the snow

Whitestone. It used to very suburban. Totally changed in density over last 20 years as has most of queens

It’s funny you should say this because I’ve lived in wading River since the 80s, we also had a house in Queens. And it was snowier in Queens by a lot. Granted, when you move inland, just a few miles toward Brookhaven national lab, you lose the effect of being on the immediate water. But living out there for most of my childhood, I would never say it’s as cold or as snowy, as where I am in Westchester now. As queens has warmed dramatically with the UHI and general warming, I would say it’s definitely colder out there than Queens and probably snowier now.

January is a plus 5 month with no snow going into this. You are lucky you are getting this week in what will be an awful winter weather month. Here comes another 7 days above freezing for next week

Well in fairness, you had snow on ground for a week. there was a possibility of 0 for a while there last weekend.

but you don’t need to Nowcast for a general idea. Yesterday’s event was very well forecasted. It was a 1-3 event with a glaze of ice and rain on Long Island and immediate coast. What you have going on here are people wish casting and picking models That agree with whatever they want. more alarmingly, you have a national weather service that is posting a bit too much on social media and getting into a sensationalist type agency. As for the forum, it always went on. But it’s gotten into a new level and it’s quite upsetting. Ultimately, it leads to disappointment and people saying the models fucked up. But they didn’t fuck up. People just chose an outlier and tried to form a trend in their minds. and they are armed with a nice colorful map from the national weather service that they end up on the low end of and call it a bust. Unless something drastically changes, Friday is another 1-3 event with more cold air. you can nowcast idiosyncrasies as they happen. but you can’t make this a 6 inch storm, and then say the forecast was wrong… unless there is model consensus on a drastic change in the next 48 hours. whatever Friday brings, enjoy it. And enjoy this week because it ends sunday and there is no return date…yet

This week is probably your winter. I hate to say that and hope Im wrong, but I think Im right