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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    didn't you have a couple of analogs that included bookend winters?
  2. LibertyBell
    from what I've seen it looks like rain and sleet would only be around for a short time, Don? as the storm pushes east and stalls out it should be all snow
  3. LibertyBell
    this honestly sounds a lot like December, it wouldn't be the first time a pattern returns.
  4. LibertyBell
    there's also a difference between a gradient pattern in December vs one in the heart of winter.
  5. LibertyBell
    Beautiful pics Don! It's nice and sunny here
  6. LibertyBell
    whats the hold up, Walt? I thought the everyone was saying it's performing so much better.
  7. LibertyBell
    I mean the chances with these kinds of storms are that a large percentage of people will get "stiffed" unless it becomes something on the scale of Jan 96 or Feb 03. It could even seem like you wont get stiffed within 24 hours of the event.........and still get stiffed! Remember March 2001, February 2013 and January 2015? The last two were relative "stiffages" but we didn't get the 2-3 feet that were expected.
  8. LibertyBell
    One thing I noticed is that the members that have the low weaker have it moving more slowly and further to the south.
  9. LibertyBell
    Based on the EPS it seems to be less of a hugger than the December system and the SST are colder than they were then (even if still a little above normal, every little bit helps). The margin of error is probably greater than the width of Long Island right now
  10. LibertyBell
    it's awesome to see climate change breaking down the usual boring enso coupling.
  11. LibertyBell
    Chris, do you think this has a chance to be a majority snow event even for us on the south shore, moreso than the December event which was about 70% snow here? We got 8 inches out of that one here, would've been a foot if it were all snow.
  12. LibertyBell
    thanks based on long duration and lots of precip, I have a little list of analogs I've compiled...let me know what you think of these three: Feb 1920, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010
  13. LibertyBell
    Feb. 4-7, 1920 - One of New York's most extended onslaughts of winter weather of all time brought 72 hours of snow, sleet and freezing rain (beginning after 2AM on 2/4 and ending around dawn on 2/7). During this punishing storm, 4.41" of liquid precipitation fell, 17.5" of it in the form of snow (five to six inches of snow fell on 2/4, 2/5 and 2/6); the rest was sleet and freezing rain. For much of the storm temperatures were in the 20s, and winds gusted between 35 and 45 mph, with wind chills in the single digits. This was the storm I was actually looking for https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/new-york-city-snowstorms-1979-2011-.html
  14. LibertyBell
    I've been waiting to see a storm that is the all snow equivalent of December 1992. If this is a three day event this could be it. The only other time a snow or wintry mix storm was like that here was, I think, in Feb 1922? Might as well look at some maps of that storm also. I see you mentioned wind advisory possibilities, Walt, any chances we could have 50-60mph or even higher winds? Couldn't find Feb 1922 storm, but I did find this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knickerbocker_storm#Setup_for_the_event An Arctic airmass was in place across the northeast United States; Washington, D.C. had been below freezing since the afternoon of January 23.[2] The front that spawned the cyclone was almost completely dry until after it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, making this storm unique among large southeast snowstorms. Despite the slow start, a low formed and deepened rapidly off the Georgia coast as the cold front reached the Gulf Stream on January 27. Heavy snow quickly developed from the Carolinas to Pennsylvania as the low drifted north to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the 28th. A strong high pressure to the north helped to cut the system off from the jet stream. As a result, the cyclone took three days to move up the East Coast of the United States which was double the normal time used by forecasters of that era to move storm systems up the coast. Snow reached Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. by noon on January 28, and continued into the morning of January 29. Temperatures remained in the 20s Fahrenheit (-5 °C) through much of the event.[3]
  15. LibertyBell
    could a storm be both a hugger and be suppressed? never seen that before but I suppose theoretically it's possible ha
  16. LibertyBell
  17. LibertyBell
    wow even better than 10-11!
  18. LibertyBell
    what makes a storm a super clipper? and I remember that storm and season well, we had pink sunrise snow falling in the morning, heavy snow as the sun came up! and a few years later in February 2010 I saw pink sunset snow!
  19. LibertyBell
    sure...Oceanside, south shore of Nassau County
  20. LibertyBell
    Walt, do you see this being a mix scenario at the coast? Lee Goldberg and others are saying this is our best chance of an all snow event at the coast.
  21. LibertyBell
    make that post your sig if we end up getting a foot of snow next week lmao
  22. LibertyBell
    NE got its revenge in 14-15
  23. LibertyBell
    around here we had more snow with the event from last week that dumped 0.7 here and a T at NYC and 0.2 at LGA and JFK...this was at best 0.1 here
  24. LibertyBell
    that was good for a few laughs, it was the one time I was laughing it up when we changed over, yea some clown thought this storm would be suppressed lmao.
  25. LibertyBell
    this may be why people I know think that this has been a really cold month! When I tell them it's been mild they refuse to believe it because there haven't been 50s and 60s like we had last January. To most people around here, temps below 50 are considered cold.
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