LibertyBell

https://twitter.com/i/events/1470848067670724611 The Antarctic is signaling big climate trouble The sea is releasing ancient carbon dioxide and vast ice shelves are melting from below. See why new research has experts increasingly worried. Video via @JessePesta

thanks, something I found interesting well 2 things actually 1-- though 3" seems to be needed for average or above seasonal snowfall in la ninas it is by no means a guarantee of that. I see some years with 6" of December snowfall still end up below normal. 2- some years are close misses, like 1988-89 when Atlantic City got 19" of snow in a snowstorm in February and we got zilch. How much does that come down to randomization and we were extremely unlucky because we missed a huge snowstorm by a tiny amount? Are big February snowstorms rare in la ninas-- I seem to remember a few of them.

I hear geese in the middle of the night, are they migrating this late?

Did any of you guys see the Geminid meteor shower last night? It was very nice-- especially between 2 and 5 am. It should also be good tonight.

Can the -NAO/-AO be strong enough to knock down the -PNA? I thought it's best to use analogs starting around the 20th of the previous month?

But by random, the site location could also make it random since you can't make the same correlation with JFK for example. So a random band of snow could've parked itself over Central Park to get it to 3" and it didn't happen at nearby official measuring sites. If you made the same list for JFK, how closely does it match the above vs their average seasonal snowfall? Also shouldn't 2020-21 be on this list since that was a La Nina we had last year?

May was hotter in the 90s than it is now. Interesting how December 2010 stands out for cold throughout the globe

Yeah it's idiotic when people try to simplify everything down to ENSO That chart is pretty obvious..... use 50" snowfall winters as the cut off..... 4 were weak la ninas and 5 were neutral.

Wasn't 1966-67 one of the winters that fit the pattern you described above?

the connection to the 11 yr solar cycle is particularly interesting because it also reflects the spike in heat every 11 years

dont want severe cold here, that would mean dry and suppression

if a -NAO and -AO become strong enough can they build back west far enough to knock down the -PNA?

snowcover is much better in December, I haven't had any March snow that stuck around more than a day And no 10" March snowfalls here....

December and March both averaged around 6" prior to the 70s.

is this why we didn't get big snow in 2001-02 even when the -NAO happened in January and coastal Carolina got their historic snowstorm instead?

lol damn 2001-02 somehow still gets on this list. So the pattern did improve in Jan 2002 with a -NAO but it led to the historic suppressed Carolina snowstorm.

True lol, I hate shoveling snow.

Told you to move to the Poconos, 17.4 inches right over my house there lol. and it's only a little over 2 hours from NYC so you could easily commute back and forth. Screw the coast, it's going to be underwater soon enough anyway and everyone will be moving inland and to higher elevations.

But couldn't that just be a random thing? I remember several la ninas that barely made it to 3" in December and then were awful in January and then we had one big snowstorm in February to get most of our seasonal snowfall. 05-06 comes to mind immediately. By the way in that specific case that rule doesn't apply to JFK because JFK didn't get anywhere near 3" in December and they still got to average or slightly above average snowfall for the season thanks to the February snowstorm. I'm trying to make a point that we can't simply use ENSO as our only method for making forecasts....other forces are at play.

a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December. Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.)

well that would be a good thing, if we had the warmest anomalies to our north I'd be a lot more concerned about the subpatterns, isn't that what happened in 2001-02? We couldn't capitalize on the change because we went from a cutter pattern to a suppressed pattern

because this season will be like 2001-02?

Doesnt that follow the general rule that 8 weeks is the maximum length a given pattern can last?

that's right, plenty of arguments on Twitter it would be right at home there. In the larger scheme of things it doesn't even actually matter, no one can control the weather (yet) so it's not worth arguing about. Rainman is right about la ninas after el ninos being the best possible combo, it's obvious from the historical record.

I want to see if we're getting a February pattern now what we will get when it actually is February. Do you subscribe to the idea that patterns only last a maximum of 8 weeks? I do, I've looked at different historic patterns over the years and it's very rare that anything lasts longer than that, but the key is to score when the pattern changes. The pattern did change in 01-02 in January for example, but we didn't score, the Carolinas did.