LibertyBell

Do we have any wind speed records from the Norfolk and Long Island hurricane from 1821?

The analogs used all have a Jan 20ish or so real start to the snow season. 1977-78, 2004-05, 2014-15, basically it's going to be really snowy when winter is at its peak. Anything before that (like the November storm) will be gravy.

This year was so much more humid than anything that has happened here previously, it was almost unbearable and I was considering a move to Caribou Maine lol. I heard you dont get allergies up there. When it's very humid I can barely breathe even with the a/c running. Constant allergies. JFK this year had an astounding 42 75+ dew point days, their previous record was 24 from 1983. Prior to the 1980s the highest number of 75+ dew point days was 19, since then it has gotten into the lower 20s a few times, but never anything like the 42 we had this year. Almost double the previous record

I think it's quite a bit more the further south you go. Down here we were in the lower 40s range between the 40s-70s and now its closer to 50 inches of rain per year (80s-00s or 90s-10s so far.)

thats very rare, if JFK is all rain, then EWR and NYC are usually snow to rain.

I feel motion sickness from all this wind!

How far are LGA, JFK and EWR from #1 from them, Don? I believe JFK's record is right around 60"?

Neither was 11-12 (though that was better further north thanks to the October 2011 snowstorm, but the rest of the season was a dud.)

There are other things at play too Scotty and Jer. For example, in our new background state, precip amounts are about double what they used to be. So let's say we use 1968-69 as an analog, which comes from a much drier era, if we had that same pattern in place (and it's an analog for this year) we can expect snowfall (and rainfall) amounts to possibly be 50-100% higher because of our new background state. Caution must be applied when using older analogs to adjust for the new climate in terms of storms being much juicier than they used to be and bombing out much more quickly.

Sounds a lot like what 1977-78 was like too, Jer. 2014-15 also.

Possibly, but as the background state changes, shouldn't what's considered a weak vs moderate vs strong ENSO remain the same vs the background, since ENSO strength is measured relative to the current background state?

Was that a blockbuster snowstorm or the big ice storm that I saw some incredible pictures of? ;-)

In 1977-78 we had less than one inch of snowfall down here going into January. Between January, February and even March we ended up with a total of close to 60 inches down here for the season. Including two blizzards, one of which was an all-time great.

Hes comparing this to a super el nino lol? And 97-98 was an aberration even for a super el nino- the two others we had, 82-83 and 15-16, both had blockbuster snow storms. A 1997-98 type winter may never happen again

A strong second half of winter is what we had been talking about previously. But as an aside, it's good to be wrong sometimes. Even the best LR forecasters are wrong plenty and what makes them the best is that they learn from it.

Looks like the snow made it as far east as Queens.

Ray was there any suppression that season? Anything like the Carolina crusher that NC had this season?

That Feb 1922 storm was actually around 4.5 inches of liquid equivalent over 3 days and a 17 inch total of a snow/sleet mix lol. The most amount of sleet we've had down here was the 5-6" sleet storm in March 2007. In Jan 1994 we had a 1-2" ice storm.

Wow no one ever talks about that storm for some reason. They always mention the Ash Wed March 1962 storm and the Dec 1992 storm though. Were the winds stronger on Long Island in those or this one and did this one last for 3 days also?

Thats better news then. We can still take out 1997-98 and 2015-16 from the list of 6 Don posted because this will never be a +2.0+ super el nino. Was 2009-10 high end moderate or strong? I think 2002-03 was high end moderate.

We really need to have an el nino thread like we had in 2015-16. There are people in the main forum and in the NE forum saying it's still weak and going to stay that way. That still removes 1997-98 and 2015-16 from the list that Don posted though because noway nohow is this ever becoming a "super"

It's good to remind people that prior to January 1978 we had less than an inch of snow that winter lol.

Don is the el nino going to remain weak? Moderate is better for our area but if it remains weak we can safely remove 1997-98 and 2015-16 from that list and also 2006-07 and 2009-10. We would be left with 2004-05 and 2014-15. Does 1977-78 not make this list? That was another weak el nino winter (albeit a second year one) where there was very little snow prior to January.

I'd wager November's storm will be the biggest through the end of December but not for the entire winter.

yep you're playing the long game. In the short term we seem to be getting screwed, but long term this may pay dividends down the road. On a positive note, it sure doesn't look like we'll have to "manufacture" our own cold air for storms in the second half of winter, the cold has already settled in.