LibertyBell

that almost sounds like 1966-67 lol except we had a big January thaw after a good December and then historic February and March.

Isn't the NAO/AO much harder to predict? this is from OSU: This is another paper about NAO prediction. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00353-y Most important factors they found were fall Barents/Kara Sea Ice, fall wave 1 stratospheric disturbances and fall north Atlantic SST configuration.

and yesterday's weather was PERFECT

No frost here in SW Nassau and the lowest we got to so far was 38.

Sunday's weather was perfect. We've had more than enough rain for the whole year already. I want nice and dry and clear blue skies for October and November. Great for fall foliage and stargazing. Not rain and wall to wall SAD conditions lol.

Chris how long is the cold weather coming up next weekend supposed to last?

that Feb 2013 snowstorm was really meh west of Suffolk County. Only a foot of snow and about an inch of rain to begin with lol. 2012-13 was more like an average season for us. March was cold but we whiffed on big snowfalls there too.

At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon! Perfect weather actually.

How can something that hasn't even happened yet "already [be] averaging" anything?

Last winter, all I remember from the early part is a huge windy snowstorm in January that was one of the longest duration of blizzard conditions I have ever seen (a true whiteout for 6 hours!) and then it somehow got to 80 degrees in February with bugs showing up everywhere, and then it went back to stormy in March and eventually the greatest late March snowstorm I've ever seen and then another snow storm to start April that snowed out the Yankees home opener. All this was followed by literally the worst allergy season I've ever had, I had to take allergy pills for 2 months after the weather started to warm up. I couldn't breathe- even inside my house! And then the heat and humidity started in early June and by then my allergies were finally gone. We had another allergy season in the fall but it was much shorter as the heat and humidity finally came to and end in mid-October.

Yes classically we seem to get our snowy periods early to mid December while late December is our "thaw" period. I could see that happening. An early snow appetizer or two Dec 1-20, then the thaw could be like Dec 20-Jan 20, with the main course of winter snows to come Jan 20 to Mar 20.

I remember how nervous people were in 2014-2015 and look how that turned out Jan 20 and later..... Jan 20 seems to be our new "turning point" for winters.

Yeah but if you go decade by decade starting from 1870 I believe NYC averaged 30"+ every decade for 5 decades and the temperatures back then were like 5 degrees colder on average in the winter than they are now. Going back to the early part of the nineteenth century NYC used to have consistent snowcover from November thru March.

Yea, I'm still going to enjoy this storm, just not enthused by the idea of heavy rain occurring at night and drizzle during the day lol. Same goes with snow.... I like to see the heaviest precip timed with daylight hours and also with the highest winds.

Oh that's probably why it's relatively weak (forecast to be around 999 mb). The high winds are going to be from a combo of the storm plus high pressure to the NE.

Some other interesting stuff on this from Google books https://books.google.com/books?id=dRgzAQAAMAAJ&pg=RA2-PA91&lpg=RA2-PA91&dq=February+1920+20+inches+of+sleet&source=bl&ots=RxZUOjfV_s&sig=IJt75ZuQBoOdZHfi9XkWDeow0lQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj9mZD_maLeAhWtc98KHVvmAHUQ6AEwCnoECAMQAQ#v=onepage&q=February 1920 20 inches of sleet&f=false https://i4weather.net/biggys.txt https://books.google.com/books?id=tcCfaoewoKcC&pg=PA71&lpg=PA71&dq=February+1920+20+inches+of+sleet&source=bl&ots=rAyoVHiR_9&sig=4Y6MSUTAxuNXXhRgLmjsAiuB21M&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj9mZD_maLeAhWtc98KHVvmAHUQ6AEwDXoECAgQAQ#v=onepage&q=February 1920 20 inches of sleet&f=false

Technically you can consider that 17.5" of snow since sleet is actually measured as snow (the two measurements are combined) but it does look like most of this was sleet. Looked up some other February 1920 stuff to help us paint a picture of what was going on in the first week of that month. http://www.glenallenweather.com/upload/history/dailyevents/feb.htm FEBRUARY 01ST Atmospheric pressure builds over New England to extreme levels. Barometer in Portland, Maine reads 31.09 inches of mercury (1053 mb), the highest February sea-level pressure ever recorded in the Eastern US. Hartford, Connecticut hits 31.06 inches of mercury (1051 mb). The Eastern US record was set the previous day (January 31, 1920) in Northfield VT at 31.14 in, though it was the same air mass. The mercury dropped to -45° at Pittsburg, NH. The City data comes from Christopher Burt's list of extreme pressures for US Cities 1920 February third to the fifth of the month Washington, DC received 61 hours of sleet that totaled 5.0 inches. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) February third to the fifth of the month Richmond, VA had 4.78 inches of liquid equivalent and 1.5 inches of frozen precipitation. February of 1920 in Richmond, Virginia (as of 2010) is the wettest February on record with 6.67 inches. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 1920 An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow on New York City, NY. The storm was accompanied by extremely high tides from strong northeast winds and a full moon. Many structures along the shore on Coney Island, Manhattan Beach and Brighton Beach, NY were destroyed by the waves. Flamethrowers were used to clear the huge snow banks on city streets. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1920 A 4-day ice, sleet and snowstorm over New England and southeastern New York came to an end after dumping as much as 15 to 20 inches of frozen precipitation. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994 THE GREAT SLEET STORM OF FEBRUARY 10-11 1994 This winter storm was most unique in that produced almost entirely sleet for the immediate DC metro area. To the north, heavy snow fell and to the south and east, freezing rain occurred producing a devastating ice storm. In the Washington area, the sleet accumulation averaged between 3 to 4 inches. The maximum sleet accumulation occurred over Central and western Fairfax County, with over 4 inches of sleet measured at several locations. Only two other sleet storms in Washington's history have compared to this storm-one occurred in 1920 and the other in 1927. The average sleet depth for the 1927 storm was 4.5 inches. Washington was lucky it was sleet and not a glaze as they received south of DC. In areas to the south where the ice storm (glaze) occurred there were some areas without electricity for nearly a month and most had no power for a week. (p. 95-96 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) The Northeast was suffering under its 2nd winter storm in 3 days. Newark, NJ picked up 18 inches of snow on top of the foot that had fallen just a few days earlier. 18 inches fell at Newark, NJ & New Bedford and Hyannis, MA. 3 to 4 inches of sleet was reported at and around the Baltimore, MD – Washington, DC area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 17th Worst Snowstorm

I decided to look this up and find what I could since I'm a big fan of anomalous events. As a bonus there's a picture of ice encrusted Manhattan during February 2015 lol. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/ice/ Today in New York Weather History: February 6 1920 For the third day in a row the City was lashed by snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain (although the temperature got no higher than 33°). Like the previous two days, between five and six inches of snow and ice accumulated, bringing the storm's three-day total to 17 inches (an additional half inch would fall in the wee hours of 2/7). 1.40" of liquid precipitation fell today, bringing the three-day total in Central Park to 4.41". Today in New York Weather History: February 5 1920 The fierce snow and sleet storm that began yesterday continued unabated today. Winds gusted to 44 mph in the pre-dawn hours and gusts of 25 to 35 mph lashed the area for the rest of the day. Combined with temperatures in the mid-20s throughout the day, the wind chill was only in the single digits. Much of the day's precipitation came in the form of sleet. Like yesterday, close to half a foot of snow/ice accumulated while 1.31" of liquid precipitation was measured. The storm would continue through tomorrow. Today in New York Weather History: February 4 1920 A nasty winter storm that would last for 72 hours began this morning. Temperatures fell from the low 30s when the first precipitation began falling in the pre-dawn hours into the mid-20s by lunchtime. Winds gusting to 40 mph after 10PM (from out of the northeast) produced wind chills in the single digits. Close to a half foot of snow fell, but much of the day's 1.70" of precipitation fell as sleet and freezing rain. An additional 2.70" in precipitation and another foot of snow would fall in the following two days.

What's do you prefer- 20" of sleet or 4 feet of snow?

There's a picture Uncle W posted awhile back, I saved it on my old computer that busted over the summer but just going by memory alone it looked like a huge iceberg was covering Brooklyn lol.

I remember Uncle W found some pictures of the February 1920 event and he posted them (B&W of course), in the pictures it literally looked like Brooklyn had been struck by an iceberg LOL. I mean there was an iceberg in the middle of Brooklyn with a lot of jagged edges sticking out of the ice. That is the largest liquid equivalent all wintry precipitation event in the history of NYC. There were only two others that were even near 3"- February 1961 and January 2016. All snow at the standard ratios that would have easily been 4 feet of snow!

October 2012, Sandy. I was referring to a big snow event in October they're really rare for the coast. Up where you are, it's like a 1 in 10 year event to get a snow event in October I would think?

A lot of our local forecasters are calling for widespread thunderstorms on Saturday. Ch 12 Long Island is going with heavy rain between 9 AM and 3 PM locally up to 3" with 60 MPH winds.

Sounds like a positive NAO storm.

Yes this really is unprecedented in terms of the wild swings in weather we have now. What I find absolutely amazing is with how frigid the 1870-1920 period was, we had zero measurable October snow in that period at Central Park (or at least none that was 1 inch or higher.) So it's pretty mindblowing that in 2011 in October you could get something that you never got during the frigid 1870-1920 period! A period during which NYC consistently averaged over 30 inches of snow!