LibertyBell

I was commenting on that in the other forum and the two Decembers this seems so similar to are 2000 and 2010 which were both la ninas, but perhaps its just a sign of how strong the blocking is, and the enso isn't the biggest factor in our pattern. But those Dec also saw suppressed systems earlier in the month before the big blockbusters at the end of the month.

Down in NYC there have been some bad inaccuracies since switching over to ASOS also (linked to vegetation overgrowth, it includes bad temp data, p-type issues, wind measurement concerns, etc.). What was the reason for the switchover to ASOS? I wish we'd just use the wunderground network with Davis weather stations only, and use that as official weather data. I know that there are networks such as MADIS, so we shouldn't just be limited to airports. Those sites just need to be made official and reported on by the media, rather than all of the attention being given to airports and their inaccurate data.

It does remind me of 2010 in that we missed out on a few storm threats and then got clocked towards the end of the month, looks like the pattern will become favorable again in that time period. Interesting to see both 2000 and 2010 in your list of years, as they both had end of the month snowstorms and were both la ninas lol. So maybe this has more to do with the type of blocking we have than it does enso. Dec 2002 which had the same enso type, but much stronger than this, did not have the blockbuster storm at the end of the month, but we still had a Christmas day into night surprise snow event that peaked over Nassau County after changing over from rain.

Yessss that was redemption for many March failures- like March 2001! I have a redemption storm for every wintry month lol January 2016 was redemption for January 2015 Late February 2010 blizzard was redemption for early February 2010 fringe job. March 2018 was redemption for March 2001 Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard was redemption for all the times we got screwed with rainstorms on Christmas (it would have been perfect had the Blizzard occurred a day earlier but you cant really complain when you get a surprise 2 ft blizzard so close to Christmas!) For whole seasons, 1995-96 was redemption for the 80s and early 90s and 2002-03 was redemption for 2001-02.

Yep, like I said, I dont mind the thaw right now, if winter is at its best when it's supposed to be which is from late December thru early March.

That place reminds me of one of those nice little towns snug in the Rockies or the Alps lol. What they got this weekend will be what the northeast gets from late December through early March. I dont mind the thaw if we get a relatively unbroken winter after that. January thaws irk me because they often happen when we are supposed to be near our yearly lows.

It should be better than that because weak el ninos tend to be colder even if they are not as moisture-laden as stronger ones. You could see something like one big snowstorm and a few others where we get decent snowfalls but not the jackpot. Weak el ninos usually bullseye eastern NE. A winter like that was 1968-69 where we had the megastorm in February (the Lindsey blizzard) and a bunch of smaller events. That was in a drier decade so one would expect the "smaller" events to be somewhat larger this time, I could see us getting to Don's 50" projection with some combo of 2004-05/2013-14/2014-15. I see 1977-78 and 2002-03 being used as analogs too and much as I would love that, I think we should consider the fact that the 1977-78 el nino was a second year event with the atmosphere already primed thanks to the previous year, and the 2002-03 el nino was a lot stronger (moderate-borderline strong) than this one is projected to be.

It's hard to come up with analogs just based off what we have seen so far. It could be like 2013-14 if we see frequent storms with a closer to coast track and a lot of snow to mix scenarios for the coast. Thats the one thing that gives me pause right now, we have yet to see any classic benchmark tracks. Even our November snowstorm was a hugger. Hoping that pattern changes. I see 2014-15 being used as an analog too, which is interesting because that January 2015 snowstorm was frustrating as hell lol but we did get a historically cold and snowy February and even early March out of that winter. What the January 2015 snowstorm was supposed to be was actually what the January 2016 snowstorm turned into- for us anyway.

Wow Hawaii must have truly stress free living Jer. Hope you checked out the article in the following post, it points out that each lifestyle has its strengths and weaknesses - for country living its lower asthma and stress levels, for city living its lower obesity and accidental deaths. But even for city living, green spaces are best. I like that we're seeing a turn towards greening of our cities, I see lots of rooftop gardens in NYC as well as people growing their own veggies in their apartments. After he retired my dad got into gardening, in his 70s and his blood pressure went down from something like 175/95 to 130/70. I inherited my green thumb (and high blood pressure) from him. I noticed that the states near the top of the list either had nice beaches or mountains or both lol.

Keeping in mind that it could be one megastorm and thats it, which is what sometimes happens in February and especially in el ninos.

Nov 1989 and Nov 2012 were both great on Long Island and in Central NJ. Double digit snowfall totals from each storm in November and Nov 89 actually occurred the night before Thanksgiving!

1898-1899 was an extremely weird fall and winter

it will be much less suppressed because it will rain lol and maybe the storm after that too. Late December might change the pattern and make it better for snow.

Very family friendly and the mountains present a great backdrop. It looks like somewhere in the Rockies lol. They average nearly 40" of snow a year.

Even though this storm was very suppressed it still rained in coastal regions including Norfolk.

According to the documentary I saw tonight, 1995 was the start of the iGen (see above post.) FYI I was born in the 1970s and I wouldnt go near canned tuna or really any canned food, it's extremely unhealthy and full of preservatives.

Looks like what you and I consider millenials actually started around circa 1995 birth year. Those are the ones that grew up with smart phones and ipads. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/phones-tablets-and-their-impact-on-kids-brains-60-minutes/ https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/toddlers-need-laps-more-than-apps https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/groundbreaking-study-examines-effects-of-screen-time-on-kids-60-minutes https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/2017-what-is-brain-hacking-tech-insiders-on-why-you-should-care https://www.cbs.com/shows/60_minutes/video/ssIdFncaAvDxXuvWKfMbTXvSl1zbceDm/elon-musk-screen-time-ryan-speedo-green 60 Minutes had an excellent piece tonight about brain changes in people born from 1995 onwards because of excessive usage of smart phones and ipads and how engineers have admitted that the big tech companies are specifically making apps and devices that would be addictive for children (even toddlers)- similar to fast food-, the NIH is currently conducting a long term study and the early results seem to bear this out. MRI exams of kids using devices for 2 or more hours a day show changes in brain structure.

Weird that some of the analogs we can use for Decembers like this where we had cold/dry during the first couple of weeks only to get nailed towards the end of the month are La Nina winters like December 2000 and December 2010. I'm sure there are El Nino examples too.

No it's not, it even says in that article that it's less stressful. And asthma rates are higher in cities thanks to all the extra vehicles (especially trucks) and when you look at longevity on a state by state basis, Colorado comes out on top. This one is more recent (sorry Jer!). It does sound like more of a mixed message though with each location being better in some ways. http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180531-where-are-the-worlds-healthiest-places-to-live https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204611003665 http://www.ecehh.org/research-projects/urban-green-space/ Generally speaking, evidence suggests that green spaces are good for those of us who live in urban areas. Those who reside near parks or trees tend to enjoy lower levels of ambient air pollution, reduced manmade noise pollution and more cooling effects (something that will become increasingly useful as the planet warms). Natural spaces are conducive to physical and social activities– both of which are associated with myriad benefits of their own. Time in nature has been linked to reduced physical markers of stress. When we are out for a stroll or just sitting beneath the trees, our heart rate and blood pressure both tend to go down. We also release more natural ‘killer cells’: lymphocytes that roam throughout the body, hunting down cancerous and virus-infected cells. Researchers are still trying to determine why this is so, although they do have a number of hypotheses. “One predominate theory is that natural spaces act as a calming backdrop to the busy stimuli of the city,” says Amber Pearson, a health geographer at Michigan State University. “From an evolutionary perspective, we also associate natural things as key resources for survival, so we favour them.” City residents tend to suffer from more asthma, allergies and depression – but they also tend to be less obese, at a lower suicide risk and are less likely to get killed in an accident

But Stress Is Less in Rural Regions ^thats what I meant Jer also sleep is much deeper with less light pollution and asthma rates are much higher in cities, especially with the trucks that constantly go through the streets. Average longevity is the longest in Colorado I believe.

that would definitely fit the pattern and we would have two cutters to bookend it, the first cutter on the 15th to introduce the thaw and the second one around the 21st to end it.

Chris how long do you think this will last? Through Christmas or through New Years?

Could be another backloaded winter (Jan 20 onwards) OR could be that winter gets going in the last week of December?

I hear you about cities- they're stressful and not healthy. My blood pressure goes down 30 pts and I sleep much better at night when I'm out in the country with no light pollution and fresh air. Flagstaff AZ is supposed to be one of the healthiest cities in America. Densely packing a bunch of humans into a small space isn't healthy for us or for the environment.

yep healthcare is super expensive too. Best healthcare right now would probably be one of those European countries where you dont go bankrupt in the process.