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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    the NWS should have done it themselves using their own criteria. Like they do it in Europe. But America is consistently behind Europe on many scientific endeavors (and politically too.)
  2. LibertyBell
    no you dont....this is the kind of storm that is going to have a sharp cut off and where it snows very close to the low center....you want to be as close to the low as you can to get the heaviest snows (just nw of the mix line which be right near the low center).
  3. LibertyBell
    it's more than just the track, cold air is getting wrapped into the storm also. Not all storms perform the same way even if they have a similar track. This seems to be a similar storm to the Millenium storm, where cold air got wrapped in all the way to the center and you could be 10 miles west of the low and still be all snow. As long as the low doesn't make it up to our latitude we'll be fine.
  4. LibertyBell
    that track is fine even for long island.
  5. LibertyBell
    not necessarily.... the Millenium storm cut across long island and there was no mixing here at all on the western part of the south shore of long island.
  6. LibertyBell
    we've had storms with that track be all snow here....think Millenium storm.
  7. LibertyBell
    The most unfortunate part of the official record is that New York City (as in The Battery at that time) recorded close to 100 inches of snow in the season before official records began.
  8. LibertyBell
    I like it- it keeps the highly tucked in solutions like the Euro honest. Hopefully we see a compromise of the two solutions in actuality.
  9. LibertyBell
    that kind of pinpoint specificity is exactly what I've wanted for awhile now, but it seems like the technology isn't there yet and at some point chaos/random effects may limit how accurate these models will ever become.
  10. LibertyBell
    wow this is some unexpectedly historic stuff. When I used to sit in my college library and analyze old snowfall records at NYC and Philly (and there were plenty of records going all the way back to the late 1700s and complete documentation of the 1800s), I never expected that we would ever exceed those numbers! That was part of the reason I loved reading about those times. I wondered how people handled it without electricity. But now, although we dont have nearly the kind of hardship that existed back then (yes, even with the current pandemic, life must've been much tougher back then), we can now say we've had bigger snowstorms and snowfall totals in recorded history than ever before!
  11. LibertyBell
    lol it's always something... when will this become the default GFS and when are they retiring the current operational?
  12. LibertyBell
    Oh man yea it just kept dumping all day, 6 straight hours of blizzard criteria! What was that other storm that was like a half version of that, I think that was in Jan too, but in 2017 or 2018? Do you remember it- it had 3 straight hours of whiteout during the day and I think Boston beat their 2/1978 surge record. We had two double digit snowstorms that winter.
  13. LibertyBell
    lol I like Jonas 1/2016 better but I'd name it something else entirely, I dont like people names for any kind of weather event, not even for hurricanes. I thought it was a 30 hr storm because we had one last long lasting band that went on until 7 am?
  14. LibertyBell
    I really think names are necessary because sometimes you have multiple big storms in a month (like Feb 2010) and it gets highly confusing, but I would opt for a more scientific naming scheme (for tropical cyclones too). I can call it Jonas Jan 2016 or just Jonas 1/2016. The decision to name itself is pretty scientific, as they go with areal coverage of winter storm warnings or population covered under winter storm warnings, whichever is reached first. In Europe, all big storms are named (not sure of their criteria.) I would also name big storms that dont meet snow criteria if they meet wind criteria (gale or storm warnings of a certain areal or population coverage).
  15. LibertyBell
    I'm glad I was here on Long Island for that one!
  16. LibertyBell
    Since you're in Bethlehem I'll ask you- did you get 30 inches in Jonas too? I was on Long Island for it 4 miles from JFK where we did get it, but I know there was a sharp cut off to the north. In PA my other home is one county north of Allentown, in Carbon county. Did that area also see 30"? I know south of I-80 was where the heaviest snows were and I'm south of I-80. Do you know of any snowfall totals out of the Lehighton/Albrightsville/Lake Harmony/Bear Creek area (elevation around 2000 ft)? Thanks!
  17. LibertyBell
    Yes but Jonas had those amazing winds too- JFK had confirmed blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours. I've never seen that before, ever. A few years later we had a mini Jonas (I dont remember the name of that storm) where we had blizzard whiteout conditions for 3 straight hours, but those are the only two times I've seen that. Complete whiteout for hours couldn't see a thing outside during the middle of the day....
  18. LibertyBell
    what happened to our end of December thaw lol?
  19. LibertyBell
    Interesting series of runs tonight that run the gamut from whiff to blizzard to rain lol. It might just be recency bias, but I feel like the GFS has been better this winter than the Euro has.
  20. LibertyBell
    classic storms always have the sharp cut off. Let's hope it's around lake effect country. They get enough snow as it is.
  21. LibertyBell
    No matter what this storm does, it wont be able to match the historic nature of Jonas. in Jan 2016 we had a wide area of 30" plus snows that stretched from Allentown across Morristown and right to JFK and Western Long Island. And it fell for 30 hours! It's going to be extremely difficult for any storm to ever match that regardless of where you live in our area.
  22. LibertyBell
    the "classic" track bends noreasters east somewhere around the Delaware coast.
  23. LibertyBell
    it has the razor sharp cut off south of the south shore of Long Island just like Dec 2003 did. So a combo of Feb 1922, Dec 1992, Dec 2003 and Dec 2010?
  24. LibertyBell
    Feb 1922 was around 20 inches of sleet. Biggest Precip event we've ever had. It would be incredible to have the wind of Dec 1992 and the precip of Feb 1922 and both of their long duration.
  25. LibertyBell
    looks like Dec 1992. Even if only rain that would be a historic storm with far more impact than any snowstorm we've ever had in our lifetimes.
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