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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    I very much doubt we will see 1" of rain let alone 1" of snow. You worked so hard Walt, it isn't your fault, the cut off was just too sharp with this and for some storms, you really can't pin down details until within 48 hours.
  2. LibertyBell
    You have an app called SnowBuddy? Did Metfan write it?! All I hear are "crickets"
  3. LibertyBell
    You guys think this is bad....look up Feb 1989 lol. A busted forecast for 8 inches of snow, we got inches of virga instead.
  4. LibertyBell
    and that's why your name is JoshSnow and not JoshRain ;-)
  5. LibertyBell
    Would this be considered a Miller B? Those are the ones most likely to have precip patterns like this.
  6. LibertyBell
    okay so an extended thaw between Dec 20 and Jan 15 lol
  7. LibertyBell
    so the timeframe is the same.....our window closes by Dec 20th and then we get another window starting Jan 15th?
  8. LibertyBell
    why cant we just not have ENSO anymore or at the very least not have it influence our weather anymore.
  9. LibertyBell
    most of them were January and most of those were dry and cold lol..and the one December in 1989 which was historically cold but also hysterically dry....
  10. LibertyBell
    so no more threats after the 12th-13th?
  11. LibertyBell
    it was pretty good in Feb 2006 though. That said March can be pretty good in this ENSO state
  12. LibertyBell
    Maybe we wont even get that much rain and wind if the storm develops so late. I take it that 0.6 on the edges shouldn't be believed lol
  13. LibertyBell
    Yeah I'm more like east-central PA right now, one county north of Allentown, but the 2,000 ft elevation is sure going to help.
  14. LibertyBell
    thats an interesting quandary, whats a better place to be, NE PA at 2000 ft where the best snows could be to my east, or the south shore of nassau county, where the best snows could be just to my north?
  15. LibertyBell
    and Jan into Feb!
  16. LibertyBell
    I cant wait until some mad scientist develops climate engineering technology and sends us into the next ice age.
  17. LibertyBell
    the lack of 30 inch snowfall winters from 1978-79 through 1992-93 is unmatched in the recorded history of NYC
  18. LibertyBell
    whats the purpose of issuing 14 day forecasts anyway, all funds should be used to make 5 day forecasts as good as can be and just dont spend any money beyond that. Allocate funds to where better results are possible, not in fantasy land.
  19. LibertyBell
    I ignored winter after 1995-96 I knew it could never get any better so I just quit paying attention to the weather, I dont even remember what those winters were like. It's easier to have a very snowy winter and then not have another one for a few years than to never have experienced it (which is what happened for me in the 80s and early 90s) and always wonder what one would be like....
  20. LibertyBell
    we even had one in April that year with a blizzard and cold air for a week!
  21. LibertyBell
    I was looking at the Euro ensembles, they're all over the place! Storms like this could really use a track cone like we have for TCs lol.
  22. LibertyBell
    Yeah those things seem to be just as unpredictable as they were 30 years ago hence why noreasters are so hard to forecast 3 days out.
  23. LibertyBell
    We place way too much focus on ENSO, I have a feeling this would have been the case even without a La Nina. In a neutral phase for example. We might need a really strong El Nino to break this pattern (maybe next year lol). I wouldn't mind another 2015-16. Sacrifice December for a whopper come January/February.
  24. LibertyBell
    Yup, I'm just opening this is the beginning of a nice window and we'll score a hit or two in the next two weeks when it'll be much colder than it is now.
  25. LibertyBell
    thats what I'm wondering about- why was the 50/50 "not expected" we used to have these kinds of errors 30 years ago too, seems like some situations are so complex that the prediction error has remained about the same as back then. Fair weather can be predicted just fine, even mid range cold and mild shots, but the things we really care about, like storms like this, they're just as unpredictable as they ever were. Even 2 days out lol
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