LibertyBell

late Feb storm? what year? is that the 4-8 30 hr storm that came out of nowhere didn't stick during the day but stuck at night?

that was a horrific series of winters..... 88-89, 89-90, 90-91, 91-92.

Funny thing is it's shifted earlier....back in college I found an old weather book that had data from the 1800s, and it looks like February used to be our coldest month. Both January and February averaged in the 20s, but February was like 2 degrees colder than January on average (27 vs 29).

all snow (like your name! lol)....our last blizzard was in Jan 2018 I believe and Jan 2016 before that. We need that blocking, even if the NAO is rising when the storm hits, there's much more often than not a big NAO block prior to the event.

if I remember right, we had the EPO strongly in our favor for many of those winters earlier in the decade (el nino, la nina and neutral winters.)

Damn I was hoping to set that 60-60-60 record for Thanksgiving-Xmas-New Years. There is zero chance this is going to be snow so it would be better if it was at least warm. If this is ice in the Poconos I'm going to be blaming you lol.

Only 16 inches at JFK half that of my favorite in Jan 2016 that dumped 31 inches here.

lol Montauk 2 inches

I have an old weather book that mentions a couple of winters in the 1800s where both NYC and PHL had 100" of seasonal snow and people used to set up shops across the frozen Hudson River.

all of these big snowstorms happened on Boxing Day? I was aware of the historic Dec 1947 event but not the others.

hey does this also give seasonal snowfall totals? I'm looking for some of those years in the 1800s when NYC was near 100" of seasonal snowfall. 1867 may have been it.....holy f*ck that was a snowy year 1867, Jan 16-17 12 inches 1867, Jan 20 6 inches 1867, Feb 20-21 23 inches 1867, Mar 16-17 13 inches 1867 Dec 11-12 12 inches 1868 Mar 20-21 12 inches That was a pretty snow period right there

I'm not superstitious about numbers and I have a strong feeling that what happened in 2020 is something that is just going to become more common. We're never going back to the way things were before. The media should be hammering that point and not falling for this weird "2020" mystique.

thank goodness for that, the last thing many of us want is an icing event (or even snow) when we're traveling

I was looking up NYC historical snowfall climatology and I found this ridiculous page lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_New_York_City#:~:text=Snowfall is now a rare,is exposed to the Atlantic. The city can be prone to extremes. Snowfall is now a rare occurrence in the city, on average occurring on only 12 days per year, and it is infrequently heavy. I can get behind the "infrequently heavy part" but not the "is now a rare occurrence in the city" part. That statement may be true 20 years from now but not yet.

I also dont like the terms "average" and "significant" oh and then there's "impactful" this is more an issue I have media than anything else though.

Wait what, we had 11 inches of snow in December 2015? You must be remembering that December wrong lol.

He vastly oversimplified and you know as well as I do how "one size doesn't fit all". Weather doesn't just go "west to east"- it also goes south to north (coastals) and north to south (arctic highs) and southwest to northeast (colorado lows) and northwest to southeast (clippers). The reason why weather is inherently unpredictable is because it's so complex and doesn't follow a simple set of rules like that. The inherent uncertainly about weather is the reason why making absolute statements is just plain dumb.

lol looking at this list, the most recent entries were all blockbuster winters, (everything from 48-49 and later)....the earliest two not so much. A majority of them seemed to happen in February and in the middle of winter you dont need a perfect pattern to get a 6" storm....in 07-08 we got 6-8 in an SSW event that changed to drizzle at the end.

it's happening in the upper midwest too, they've had spring type flooding in Minesota.

Wasnt that winter very similar to 2001-02 in that we had very little snow here in both, but the south got dumped on? I remember 2002 had a big snowstorm in the Carolinas and I think something similar happened in 1973?

1984-85 was actually a mild winter, with a period of extreme cold in January. That was cold and dry by the way, and not really what you want. 80s Januarys were typically very cold and dry.

No it's the result of having a different climate lol. If you look back decade by decade, average temps keep increasing. January was one of the few holdouts, until now.

it's actually better for us if it happens later. I was thinking 5-10 but you're saying 10-15 is more likely? Don what do you think of this "threat" on the 3rd? I think it's a bit too soon, the models sometimes jump on something too quickly.

Models represent our incomplete knowledge. Meteorological models might be the least accurate models in all the sciences. I can sit here and tell you about all the eclipses that will happen from now to a 1000 years from now but weather models are highly inaccurate beyond 3 days or so. It represents the state of the science right now.

I'm still planning on coming back to the tristate on the 3rd. Pretty sure the weather will be fine then, it's the period between the 5th and the 10th that needs to be watched more closely.