LibertyBell

I cant wait until humankind advances to the point that we can geoengineer the climate so we wont have to bitch about something we cant control.

at the shore here you dont get any pure snowstorms without atlantic blocking. If you look at the list of significant snowstorms here, very few happen without a cooperative AO/NAO

Yes it was a marginal improvement, nothing major, but just enough to slightly shift things (sometimes that's all it takes.) This area almost always has a rain/snow/mix line within the region so something that could shift that line say 5-10 miles could make a big difference.

The creepiest thing about that storm is that on the night that storm commenced the news was talking about finding several bodies buried on Long Island south shore beaches, evidence of a serial killer having operated there for a few years. Still haven't found out who it was.

It can actually be seen immediately after snowfalls when models start to correct to colder scenarios. I distinctly remember this happening in 1993-94 and meteorologists talking about how snowcover was making airmasses colder than what the models had progged them to be before the snowstorm occurred. It also affected the track of storms (they were tracking farther south than originally progged to) because of more than expected cold air pushing southward. I wonder if the same might have been the case in 2010-11 which you might remember was forecast to be a mostly snowless winter, but it all turned on a dime on Boxing Day and then we had a very snowy stretch for about 5 weeks with long duration snowcover. It makes me wonder if that completely unexpected snowstorm hadn't occurred, how the following 5 weeks would have turned out

I'm not getting caught up in that again lol. 60 mph should be the strongest the winds get across the vast majority of the area.

That winter also had a decent event in February that brought down a crane in Manhattan. JFK had 40" and other parts of Long Island had 50" And we were below zero for Valentine's Day! Considering it started with the warmest December ever, that was a good winter (and Xmas Eve was actually 72 degrees!)

You dont buy the concept that a persistent snowcover from an early season snowstorm breeds more cold air and blocking resulting in a higher probability of more snowstorms in the next few weeks immediately after that initial storm?

Yeah this is true, you cant hang on individual model runs. 1st ten days of January signal has been there consistently. Also LOL if the NAO/AO weren't critical for 6"+ snowstorms then they wouldn't consistently be brought up in reference to them- and weather also moves south to north (especially during big storms) and north to south with reference to high pressure, saying weather always moves west to east is a vast oversimplification.

The one that set the surge records in Boston and was like a 50% version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (because it had three hours of verified blizzard conditions at JFK, while Jan 2016 had six). We had white out conditions all day during that storm in Jan 2018! I think that was one of two major snow storms that winter. Those 30 year December averages are going to be significantly higher when they get calculated at the end of the month.

Ice in the Poconos? that's going to mean bad driving! I'm going to be coming back Sunday afternoon, I hope conditions are better by then.

very little chance of snow down to the coast but there's still a chance for inland areas....I will be in the Poconos that week so it's all good!

I wonder when the last time was that we had a cold December lol, they dont seem to happen all that much.

It's comical how they twist and turn with each model run. And even the south shore here got about 8 inches.....and the snow lasted for over a week. Nothing to whine about over.

mild Novembers have historically been linked to snowy seasons, we had six out of six up between 55-56 and 93-94. A lot better than getting a prewinter snowfall at any rate. as for la ninas; some of our snowiest Decembers and Januarys have happened during La Ninas. I like La Nina for the early part of the season a lot better than El Ninos. If you want to look at what's really going on, it all has to do with that warm water off the north Pacific. But the bridge jumping is hilarious, the 5-10 period is the one to look at and the people who twist and turn with each model run are hilarious (as if these models are even remotely accurate at that time range.)

for me it's 2016 (but 95-96 and 02-03 too)

no JFK listed here?...nvmd found it, right around 60 mph

Looks like a general 1-2 inches across the city and Long Island...but I saw those reports were between 8 and 9 am and we still had heavy rain going on after that (even into the afternoon)! any updated reports on rain and wind, Don?

tell that to the people that had flooding and water in their basements

I'd rather have sunshine.

well only one of them was snow lol. Some of my friends are already sick and tired of winter and want spring to come already....I was told dont tell me what the weather is going to be unless it's going to be above 50 degrees and sunny every day!

this is awesome and has been going on for over a year now, warmth to the north and cold to the south (compare Maine temps vs Florida)

no, as Don said, it's the blocking that will decide what will happen.....thats why the first half of January is being targeted.

right that is the period I'm looking at also. Anyone who thought we would have another snowstorm in December was foolish. That's not how our climatology works. The period I've been looking at is a little later than yours though, between the 5th and the 10th. Panic is for the weak-minded.

Yeah this is normal now lol. The warmth more than the 10" pre solstice snowfall....