LibertyBell

I'm like that also, not a huge fan of extreme cold and high fuel bills lol. Although I must say I do like moderately cold and crystal clear skies, it's great for astrophotography and the sun heats up my house nicely during the day.

Yep, especially the first third of March. We usually see winters come back when there's a hiatus for the first half of February.

Having lived through the 70s, 80s and 90s, the climate has radically changed from then to now both in terms of temps and precip (should add humidity levels too). Allergy levels are much worse and so is air quality.

ISO focusing a bit more directly (on snowfall rather than temps which are always going to be mild, we know this already) do you see another 15-20 inches for NYC from the middle to end of Jan? That would get us to near normal seasonal snowfall with the 10" we have already. While I know Feb is forecast to start out mild and dry, in many similar winters, we've returned to another, albeit smaller window of snow towards the end of Feb and beginning of March, which could land us another 5-10 inches. Would you say the odds are about even for NYC to have around 30 inches of snow by the end of the season?

this isn't to say we wont get another snowy period later on in the season, rarely is the last measurable snowfall in January. It's more likely that after a relaxation for a couple of weeks in February we get another snowy period near the end of that month and the beginning of March. The upcoming Mid to late Jan period will definitely be the peak of winter, but dont rule out another 5-10 inches of snow falling between the second half of February and the first half of March. It's happened quite frequently, even in mild winters.

It's likely going to be a two week period from Jan 15 to close to the end of the month. Hopefully we can get somewhere between 15-20 inches in that period.

PD2 is a great example of this. So was the 1960-61 winter. Don is compiling a great list of 6"+ snowstorms from the 1950s onward accompanied by existent index values. It's very valuable info!

the second half of January aint here yet.....

This is pretty much what we thought, isn't it? My prediction is we will be at or close to average seasonal snowfall by the end of January and from then on to the end of the season there will be less than 10 inches of additional snowfall. We'll probably end up with between 25 and 30 inches of snow when all's said and done. It's a lot better than the 10 to 15 I was thinking before December began. So that would be a win.

Are you seeing the same pattern I am, Chris? The farther north you go, the stronger the anomalies. It's like the fire that's been happening in the arctic for years now has finally spread to the northern reaches of our country. Also, something else I've noticed, besides the big increase in big ticket snow and rain storms is that lake effect snowfalls have also gone way up. Have you seen how Erie, PA, has experienced a THIRTY INCH increase in their annual snowfall over the last 50 years? This is a result of late or no freeze of the Great Lakes.

Yeah I just saw a video of a new home that collapsed in northern India from 3 feet of snow.

Don it seems like all the major media outlets are touting a multiweek period of cold and stormy conditions coming up starting next week and lasting through the end of January.. Is there anything to indicate this might be the case? Also I really like your list of NYC area 6"+ snowfalls and the indices at the time. I see you added ISP for an eastern area location, is it also possible you could add a western location to the list, say either ABE or MPO? Thanks!

This was something I was thinking about. I'm sure you've also noticed the drastic reduction in number of single digit and below zero low days. When was the last time JFK went below 0.....1994?

Blocking looks like it will get stronger in the second half of January, Don?

Jan 2016 was a significant shift northward....I'm not sure how much more accurate for east coast storm tracks the models are than they were in 2010 beyond 3 days to be honest.

it really shouldn't.....for years I've noticed that whomever is measuring the snowfall at Central Park is rounding it to the nearest half inch....there are a lot of snowfalls ending in .0 or .5 inch and some were very obviously undermeasured (like Jan 1996 most notably.)

Good, accuracy can only be guaranteed to the inch anyway, there was no reason to make it 29.9.

wow thats wild, what's the highest snowfall in any year in which there was only one measurable snowfall?

they should have their first round draft pick taken away as punishment and given to the Giants fwiw I dont believe ANY NFC east team should be allowed into the playoffs

what do we categorize as arctic air? I say it should be single digits or lower in Jan and Feb, and we haven't needed that for our biggest storms.

dont need arctic cold at all

Yeah I hope the ratings drops will give them a clue to change it back to what it was.

yeah whats with that crew anyway....I'm "naturally repelled" by the "natgas" crew....let's call it what it is: METHANE. No "natural" euphemisms necessary. It's like when the "high fructose corn syrup" people tried to lay the "corn sugar" euphemism on us.

Interesting baseball analogy. The best teams (like the 90s Yankees) use a combo of homeruns and small ball fundamentals. Because depending on just one simply doesn't work.

Bright and sunny here now!