LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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what about direction after landfall, what if it keeps going NNW or NW' -
new cone has moved west now shows long island landfall most likely option
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so the NAM is actually more in line with upper air obs and samplings of the ridge?
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several times now, this sort of reminds me of how we got NAMd in January 2016 and you know how that turned out.....
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I would too, it's Friday get away day and the west trend isn't just real it's obvious. Looks like this is going to affect a lot more people now, not just the huts on the east end and the huts on cape cod and the islands
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they might because it affects a lot more people now, I would expect it by 5 PM since it's Friday.....
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no end to the humidity or even a break?
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and lots of upwelling with a slow moving system? If this isn't the last system we get, later on in the season, September or October, is when we usually get much faster moving systems that dont cause upwelling, isn't it?
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I talk about it lol. We had 1 inch of rain but it was spread out over a day and a half. Where is the ideal spot where you get the best of both worlds? Was that south Jersey for Sandy? Maybe the Delaware coast?
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unless it absorbs it
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it's interesting to see a TC with a westerly component even at landfall at our latitude. The pre-existing conditions are nowhere as anomalous as they were with Sandy. Is this something we're going to be seeing more of with slowing down of the jet stream and all the other things we've been discussing? There are parallels in history for individual events (like the 1903 ACY hurricane) but taken as a collective, I don't think there has been a period of recorded history that has seen so many storms landfalling this far west.
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why did you move out to the middle of nowhere, Keith?
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good, lets destroy everything lol I guess you're basing this on the tropical models which have come furthest west and some are right over the city
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but much more rain while east of center dryslots
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I think it can get as far west as Gloria got which is right around there. Any further west than that and we'll get into the dryslot lol.
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hmmm I saw 2-4 ft for Nassau and 3-5 feet for Suffolk and depends what you mean by winds, 30 mph winds sustained and tropical storm force gusts for Nassau are up there and thats on the old forecast track which will likely be adjusted west.
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Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.
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interesting that many models have a strong westerly component to motion even after landfall
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it all has to do with how strong the storm gets, the stronger the further west
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15% for gusts is a good number, so for western Nassau County that would be 30 mph sustained with tropical storm force gusts and thats on the old NHC track which will likely need to be adjusted west.
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dont think wind will be confined to eastern LI, I was looking at map projections and we have 30 mph sustained winds all the way to western nassau and 2-4 ft of surge too and thats with the current NHC track not on the western leaning models which seem to be where the majority of the guidance is now.
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NAM/UK have been consistent, this is interesting
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wow this was the model leading with the west trend (even before the GFS) right?