LibertyBell

Chris, doesn't this somewhat remind you of March 2001? It had a better outcome for us than March 2001 did, but that event also had heavier snow north and east of us! Another storm like this was Feb 2013.

Walt, we were just concentrating on January events; I wish we could have included April 1982 as it was the most memorable 80s event aside from Feb 1983. April 1982 was 9.6" at NYC and 8" at LGA and JFK, although EWR had about 13" ISP had 16" I think?

Don, would the NAO be about the same as AO, and which is a better predictor for east coast wintry events?

Thanks so much, Don! That was quick work! And AO/PNA data is included!

Thats correct, having lived through those Januarys they were dull and boring compared to what we have in our new warmer climate. Lots of minor events and extreme cold. No school closings so lots of unfun walking in -30 wind chills and slippery annoying conditions!

But it's interesting that it wasn't a disappointment for the coast..... with a +NAO you'd expect a storm to cut and favor the interior yet in that case eastern LI was buried with over 20 inches of snow in Jan 2015!

It's not a myth here....I have a standard that I measure snowy months by and above and beyond everything else, it means number of double digit snowfalls. And January in the 80s had zip zero zilch nada double digit snowfalls here after 1982 (the only double digit January snowfall that I can remember was January 1982) and lots of events that were suppressed to our south or that cut. I was in Brooklyn or the south shore of Nassau County during the 80s (1980-1982 Brooklyn, 1983 and beyond in southern Nassau.) Our new warmer climate has actually meant much more exciting Januarys with bigger snowstorms. Having lived throughJanuarys during the 80s, they were much colder, but also dull and boring with lots of little 1-2 inch events and an outlier 4" event here and there. Even the so-called "exciting" events like Jan 1987 and 1988 didn't hit double digits.

Penn Forest Township near Bear Creek and Lake Harmony, around the same elevation as you!

Thanks Don, I wonder how large the list would be if we just went from 1980 onwards.

It would be amazing if we could have a reference base for all the different major storms accompanied by index values when those events occured.

Did any of the other nice events in 95-96 occur under similar circumstances?

Hey Don, I wanted to see how many of the smaller less well predicted storms of the 80s and 90s I could remember...could you possibly increase the list down to the 6"+ storms or even 4"+ and one where such amounts were reached or exceeded at any of the local airports too? Thanks!

If anything the milder winters may be aiding bigger snowfalls as warmer means more humid also.

The greatest December snowstorm I had seen up to that point.

MUCH better than January finishing -6 with zero snow threats...which was often the case during the 80s.

"older" people eh lol

Thanks Chris....any data on the accuracy numbers before and after the change?

Canonical anything no longer exists thanks to the new patterns setting up thanks to human induced climate change. The good thing is we'll be heating up the planet through at least 2050! Maybe all the added plastic is having an effect too

Noticed the other years mentioned were 2014 and 2015.....also winters where we had big turnarounds between December and January.

Expecting 3-6 here in the Poconos at 2000 ft.

Yep, this is what I've been saying. Not only is the whole causal connection an illusion so is the whole W->E illusion.

exhibit A is January in the 1980s, lots of Arctic air and very little snow. I like milder Januarys and snow a lot better.

you dont need Arctic cold for snow....I guess some of us drank too much to remember the last decade or so.

Maybe they should keep running it every 24 hrs....running a model every 6 hours seems to impair its usefulness. Happy New Year, Chris!

whats with all this rain, Don? It seems to be like pulling teeth to get a couple of sunny days around here. Happy New Year!